{ "prompt": 2, "orders": 1, "method": "temperature per question type and per option-count bucket (choice), by NLL, fitted on the out-of-distribution calibration split only; thresholds per type: the most permissive threshold whose accepted calibration decisions have a one-sided 95% Clopper-Pearson upper bound <= max_error; a type without one defers", "temperature_per_prim": { "choice": 1.3739536474580891, "noul": 2.9113063656843745, "score": 2.4130090616010436 }, "temperature_per_bucket": { "choice": { "2-10": 1.7817974362806785, "11-26": 1.189207115002721, "27-255": 1.0442737824274138 } }, "thresholds": { "0.01": { "confidence": null, "method": "per type: the most permissive threshold whose accepted calibration decisions have a one-sided 95% Clopper-Pearson upper bound <= max_error; a type without one defers", "per_type": { "choice": { "confidence": null, "heldout_coverage": 0.0, "heldout_error": null }, "noul": { "confidence": null, "heldout_coverage": 0.0, "heldout_error": null }, "score": { "confidence": null, "heldout_coverage": 0.0, "heldout_error": null } }, "heldout_coverage": 0.0, "heldout_error": null }, "0.05": { "confidence": null, "method": "per type: the most permissive threshold whose accepted calibration decisions have a one-sided 95% Clopper-Pearson upper bound <= max_error; a type without one defers", "per_type": { "choice": { "confidence": 0.9286868153250845, "heldout_coverage": 0.3958228061310426, "heldout_error": 0.024042553191489402 }, "noul": { "confidence": 0.8781293507775572, "heldout_coverage": 0.3791863765373699, "heldout_error": 0.025449101796407136 }, "score": { "confidence": null, "heldout_coverage": 0.010745466756212223, "heldout_error": 0.21875 } }, "heldout_coverage": 0.33450861598053333, "heldout_error": 0.025385985748218487 } }, "gates": { "ece_lofo": { "choice": { "pooled": 0.014017515750226483, "n": 11874, "gate": 0.05, "pass": true }, "noul": { "pooled": 0.036824358355951686, "n": 5285, "gate": 0.05, "pass": true }, "score": { "pooled": 0.03437115639927046, "n": 2978, "gate": 0.05, "pass": true } }, "ece_worst_fold": 0.12806117595026437, "worst_fold": "agent", "automated_at": { "0.01": 0.0, "0.05": 0.33450861598053333 }, "automated_error": { "0.01": null, "0.05": 0.025385985748218487 }, "note": "held-out numbers: every evaluation row predicted by the fit without its family" }, "test": { "T": { "choice": { "acc": 0.7825501094829038, "ece": 0.014634286980745098, "n": 11874 }, "noul": { "acc": 0.8297067171239356, "ece": 0.03698786735263829, "n": 5285 }, "score": { "acc": 0.6064472800537274, "ece": 0.036633175755623124, "n": 2978 }, "all": { "acc": 0.7688831504196255, "ece": 0.021431324576755978, "n": 20137 } }, "note": "evaluation pool (development and test splits), full fit" }, "n": { "fit": 3560, "many": 1500, "eval": 20137 }, "engine": "fast", "fitted_on": { "split": "out-of-distribution calibration split (sealed-seed BH-, JDI- and agent-shaped families, many-option items)", "orders": 1, "readouts": "basal-serve --mode fast, ModelOpt FP8 package (recipe b2)" }, "certified_on": "the same split", "evaluated_on": "development and test splits, leave-one-family-out and leave-one-language-out" }