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PART I THEORY 1 Rational Regime Preferences in Europe 2. Democracy with Whom? Authoritarianism under Whom? 3 Predictability and Democratic Consolidation PART II CASES Introduclion to Part II: Case Selection and Measuring Independent and Dependent Variables 4 The Right and the Breakdown of Spanish Democracy, 1931-1936 5. Democratic Transition and Consolidation in Spain, 1976-1986 6. Political Risks and Regime Outcomes in Europe before 1940 7. Political Risks and Regime Outcomes in Europe after 1945 8. Consolidation into the Future and outside Europe Appendix: interviews on the Spanish Righfs Beliets in the 1970s and 1980s References Index