A new scientific study holds mankind responsible for 3 out of 4 extremely hot summer days and goes on to predict that we will most likely be responsible for more than 95% of those agonizing days somewhere around mid-century.
Equally alarming, lead author Erich Fischer, a climate scientist at The Swiss Federal Institute of Technology in Zurich, calculated that we’re also to blame for 18% of extreme rain events and that will be to blame for about 39% of them around mid-century when the planet is expected to warm another 2 degrees Fahrenheit (1.1 degrees Celsius).
The brutal climate changes and their nefarious effects are attributed to greenhouse gases, in particular carbon dioxide that comes from burning coal, oil and gas.
Erich Fischer and esteemed colleague Reto Knutti looked at just the hottest of hot days for their examination of humanity’s impact on the planet.
They used 25 computer models to simulate a world without human-caused greenhouse gases and saw that those overwhelmingly hot days only happened once every 3 years.
They than calculated how often they occur with the planet’s current level of greenhouse gases and the number increased to 4 days. They concluded that 3 out 4 super hot days are human caused.
Fischer and Knutti took the study even further. They used current pollution patterns and predictions to increase the level of greenhouse gases and simulate a world about mid-century. Their results were that humanity will be responsible for 26 unusually hot days in the future.
The study’s authors explained their method as follows:
“The approach here is reminiscent of medical studies, where it is not possible to attribute a single fatality from lung cancer to smoking. Instead, a comparison of the lung-cancer-related mortality rate in smokers with the rate in non-smokers may allow attribution of the excess mortality to smoking.”
The results of the study have a margin of error of +/- 13%.
The scientists also point out that the number of hot days grows larger when you consider smaller regions.
Presently Africa and South America have the highest percentages of extreme summer days that can be blamed on human activity, 89% and 88% respectively. Europe stands at 63% and North America at 67%.
Jonathan Overpeck, an Arizona climate scientist who wasn’t part of the research team, underlines the importance of the study and hopes that it will make people more responsible for their actions and more sensible to the issue at hand:
“This is key: If you don’t like hot temperature extremes that we’re getting, you now know how you can reduce the odds of such events by reducing greenhouse gas emissions.”
His opinion is not to be overlooked as extreme weather events have sparked countless debates through the years, with climate activists pointing out the damage inflicted by mankind, skeptics questioning their logic and neither side being able to provide a great deal of undeniable proof.
Scientists generally agree that while global warming doesn’t usually cause any single event in particular, it does highly increase their chance of occurring.
Image Source: noaanews.noaa.gov