Scotland’s Caledonian pinewoods will be affected by climate change – the nature of this is still not known, but some woods are already changing. This case study looks at how we are planning in the face of great uncertainty about the impacts and consequences of climate change. The possible increase in the tree disease Dothistroma needle blight (also known as red band needle blight) is used here as an example of a potential future risk.
In managing for Dothistroma, we don’t know the extent and magnitude of the risk nor how it will interact with other climate pressures. So, we need to create enough resilience for pinewoods to cope with uncertainties. In this case, we are taking resilience to be: “a property which allows an ecosystem to maintain its characteristics under the impacts of novel processes and shocks” (Valluri-Nitch & Stone, 2015: 1).
In this context, resilient Caledonian pinewood ecosystems can still maintain their defining characteristics. Looking ahead, we must clarify our management objectives, assess the potential impacts, identify future problems and uncertainties, and take action to solve them.
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