On Saturday, nearly 200 nations signed a climate pact that President Barack Obama called a “turning point for the world.” Obama argued this agreement was the one “the world needed.” Upon reading the actual text of the deal, it would appear the world didn’t need very much, if the President’s claim is to be taken at face value. In the end, this deal is as fanciful and toothless as the Kellogg-Briand Pact of nearly a century ago that banned war in the wake of World War I. While the failings of this deal are unlikely to be as grave (World War II was pretty awful, you know), it suffers from the same fatal flaw: no enforceability.
This agreement doesn’t actually do anything; it is merely a voluntary plan whereby nations will unilaterally cut emissions or something. The over-arching goal is to keep global temperatures rising 2 degrees (Celsius) from the current expectation of some in the science community for 2.7-3.7 degrees. If this voluntary deal works really well (!!!), the agreement leaves open the possibility of pushing for a more aggressive 1.5 degree target.
This agreement “invites Parties to communicate their first nationally determined contribution no later than when the Party submits its respective instrument of ratification, accession, or approval.” This agreement merely invites nations to come up with their own plan to bring down emissions to unspecified levels to lead to less climate change. Does that sound vague? Don’t worry; this agreement also creates an “ad hoc working group” to monitor nations’ progress because groups of bureaucrats are renowned for getting things done.
Signing to this deal merely signifies the “Voluntary participation authorized by each Party involved.” Are there any enforcement mechanisms that punish nations for failing to bring emissions down (or for some developed nations, rise more slowly)? Nope. We are operating solely on the trust system—no way that could produce underwhelming results. Some hailed the underlying goal of the deal as ground-breaking: “Parties aim to reach global peaking of greenhouse gas emissions as soon as possible.” Others may contend that the phrase “as soon as possible” means absolutely nothing and gives offending nations plenty of room to maneuver if confronted (i.e. more action just wasn’t possible). This deal also says developed nations are to give developing ones at least $100 billion/year by 2020 to help fund their development, thereby making income redistribution an international affair. Good luck getting everyone to write those checks…
Those who are unconvinced climate change is the world’s most pressing problem and aren’t prepared to crush the economy to cut emissions should actually be thrilled by today’s deal as no new policies have to be implemented. If we actually wanted to cut emissions, any deal needs to have set targets and strict ramifications for violations (for example, automatic WTO admissible tariffs to hurt the economy of offenders). Otherwise, developing nations, like China and India, will cheat, pointing to the fact there were no restrictions on the West’s industrial revolution a century ago. Of course, they benefit from our revolution (India doesn’t have to invent the car for instance), so there should be restrictions if we are to have some, though perhaps not quite as onerous for a bit of time. Adhering to unenforceable deals threatens to leave the American economy relatively uncompetitive as other nations’ flout the deal’s requirements.
Fortunately for the climate alarmists in our midst, the private sector is already helping to solve the problem. Our abundance of natural gas is hurting coal, and with or without government regulations, coal will likely go the way of the dodo bird in this country over the coming decades. As we export LNG, energy production around the world will only get cleaner. Automotive emissions keep improving, and the advent of the electric car will only help. Continued advancement in battery technology could facilitate a smaller, cleaner grid while improvements in transmission will make nuclear more viable in more regions. Even in countries like China, popular discontent over ridiculous pollution levels could force the regime to act over time if only to keep the public happy. Indian cities aren’t far behind.
However, our President is a climate alarmist, which leaves one befuddled as to why he would be happy with this deal that is voluntary and lacking enforcement mechanisms. This climate pact is strikingly similar to the Iran Deal, which is nonbinding (heck no one even signed the agreement!) and has laughable verification measures (not to mention the fact that re-imposing sanctions with Russian approval and European unity is as likely as Hell freezing over, unless of course unfettered climate change here serious impacts the temperature down below…).
Our President seems to have a lot of trust in foreign powers to do the right thing despite their national interest. It’s a fascinating turn for a President who so recognized the free-rider problem, he coerced Americans to buy healthcare insurance or face stiff financial penalties (the individual mandate). Of course, if the insurance under Obamacare is as good and affordable as advertised, wouldn’t people be clamoring for it and not need coercion? I guess, unlike China and Iran, Americans can’t be trusted to the right thing.
Moreover, our President may see no need to make legally-binding agreements since he never feels the law binds him as evidenced by the lawless immigration executive orders and potential one on Guantanamo Bay. Ultimately, our President seems to enjoy doing things for the sake of doing things. That is how Democrats inevitably react to gun violence (just pass a law, even if it wouldn’t have stopped this shooting). Obama wanted a deal with Iran to check off a box on his legacy, even if the deal was a poor one. Similarly, he wanted to do something on the climate. We can all sleep easy and claim the moral high ground now that this high-sounding, completely unenforceable garble has been agreed to. In the view of our leadership, just doing something is an achievement, results be damned. That is the only way to explain the Iran Deal, the Paris Accord, gun violence reactions, and our tepid ISIS bombing campaign. At least we can feel good about ourselves as the world implodes!
Now, I don’t believe economy-crushing cuts make sense, but it astonishes me how horrendous of a negotiator our President and his Secretary of State, John Kerry, are. They are either delusional or lying when calling such a deal as this a groundbreaker. If we ever want to deal successfully with China or Putin or Iran, this naïve idealism is dangerous.
Just like coal, this deal will end up being a puff a smoke, not worth the two weeks of diplomats’ hot air blown in Paris.