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RESEARCH_VALIDATION.md
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# Research validation notes
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This release is a **fully synthetic benchmark**. The validation goal is internal structural, physical and statistical consistency, not proof that the generated distribution is empirically identical to real Kolkata monitoring data.
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## Why the generator changed
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The earlier 100M draft had two important benchmark weaknesses:
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1. PM2.5 correlations were almost distance-invariant across synthetic sites, so geographic coordinates did not carry enough predictive structure.
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2. Missingness was all-or-nothing across all variables, unlike monitoring systems where pollutant channels often fail independently.
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The current generator fixes both issues.
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## Spatial dependence
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The generator uses 24 latent spatial knots with persistent time-varying AR processes. Each site mixes its four nearest knots with Gaussian distance weights. Pollutant families use different latent fields for fine particles, coarse particles, combustion gases and ozone.
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On the final materialized data, a 120-site × 6,000-hour PM2.5 diagnostic gives:
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- distance vs raw pairwise correlation: **r = -0.7125**
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- mean raw correlation below 5 km: **0.9546**
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- mean raw correlation at 30+ km: **0.9133**
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- mean cross-sectionally residualized correlation below 5 km: **0.2610**
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- mean residualized correlation at 30+ km: **-0.0570**
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The point is not that these exact coefficients are universal physical truths. The point is that spatial proximity now has measurable statistical meaning rather than being decorative metadata.
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## Temporal fidelity
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The table is a complete hourly grid, including timestamps at which some channels are unavailable. Final timestamp metrics are:
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- order consistency = 1.0
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- timestamp uniqueness = 1.0
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- hourly regularity consistency = 1.0
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- grid completeness = 1.0
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Station-0 autocorrelations show persistent hourly, diurnal and weekly structure rather than independent row sampling. The validator also records first-difference diagnostics so sudden-step behavior can be inspected directly.
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## Missingness
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Mean missingness in a 100-site diagnostic, confirmed by the full-table scan, differs by variable. Full-table rates are stored in `validation_report.json`. Typical rates are approximately:
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- temperature: 1.9%
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- relative humidity: 2.1%
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- wind: 2.4%
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- rainfall: 2.5%
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- PM2.5: 3.2%
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- PM10: 3.8%
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- NO2: 5.5%
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- CO: 6.5%
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- SO2: 7.5%
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- O3: 6.0%
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Outages occur in contiguous runs, with a whole-site telemetry component plus variable-specific failures.
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## Cross-variable logic
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The final station-0 diagnostics include:
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- PM2.5 vs PM10: strong positive correlation, but not identity
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- PM2.5 vs wind: negative
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- PM2.5 vs rainfall: negative
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- NO2 vs O3: negative under the synthetic titration/photochemical mechanism
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PM10 is generated as PM2.5 plus an independently varying coarse component. NO2, CO and SO2 share a combustion-related spatial field but have separate station-level innovations so they are related without being mechanically identical.
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## Literature alignment
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Three recent research directions directly informed the validation design:
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- **Seq2Synth (arXiv:2607.15606)**: static marginals are insufficient for sequential data; timestamp validity, cross-sectional dynamics, first differences, autocorrelation and trajectory-level structure should be checked directly.
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- **DynLMC (arXiv:2604.05064)**: realistic multivariate synthetic data should not rely only on fixed correlations; time-varying and lagged cross-channel dependence matters.
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- **AirQualityBench (arXiv:2605.05854)**: air-quality benchmarks benefit from explicit missing-data masks, physical-scale evaluation, graph structure and evidence that spatial dependence decreases with distance.
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The generator incorporates these ideas through dynamic spatial fields, lagged rainfall scavenging, pollutant-specific observation masks, a released k-NN graph and temporal/spatial diagnostics.
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## Remaining scientific limitation
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No synthetic generator can be declared empirically equivalent to Kolkata observations solely from internal checks. A stronger future validation would compare this benchmark against a clean, legally redistributable real reference set at matched hourly/monthly grain using distributional, spectral, cross-correlation and forecast-transfer metrics. The current release therefore uses the label **literature-informed synthetic benchmark**, not historical reconstruction or digital twin.
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