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Sep 17

Neural General Circulation Models for Weather and Climate

General circulation models (GCMs) are the foundation of weather and climate prediction. GCMs are physics-based simulators which combine a numerical solver for large-scale dynamics with tuned representations for small-scale processes such as cloud formation. Recently, machine learning (ML) models trained on reanalysis data achieved comparable or better skill than GCMs for deterministic weather forecasting. However, these models have not demonstrated improved ensemble forecasts, or shown sufficient stability for long-term weather and climate simulations. Here we present the first GCM that combines a differentiable solver for atmospheric dynamics with ML components, and show that it can generate forecasts of deterministic weather, ensemble weather and climate on par with the best ML and physics-based methods. NeuralGCM is competitive with ML models for 1-10 day forecasts, and with the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts ensemble prediction for 1-15 day forecasts. With prescribed sea surface temperature, NeuralGCM can accurately track climate metrics such as global mean temperature for multiple decades, and climate forecasts with 140 km resolution exhibit emergent phenomena such as realistic frequency and trajectories of tropical cyclones. For both weather and climate, our approach offers orders of magnitude computational savings over conventional GCMs. Our results show that end-to-end deep learning is compatible with tasks performed by conventional GCMs, and can enhance the large-scale physical simulations that are essential for understanding and predicting the Earth system.

  • 16 authors
·
Mar 7, 2024

Samudra 2: Scaling Ocean Emulators across Resolutions

Ocean general circulation models (OGCMs) are essential to climate science but computationally expensive, limiting ensemble size and forcing scenarios. Neural emulators promise orders-of-magnitude speedups, yet existing ocean emulators have not combined fine spatial resolution with multi-year autoregressive rollouts. Samudra, the first autoregressive neural ocean emulator to produce multi-decade global rollouts, is limited to 1^circ resolution and exhibits two long-horizon failure modes: variance collapse, the loss of temporal variability, and imprinting artifacts, in which velocity patterns leak into deep-ocean fields. We present Samudra 2, which introduces a wider U-Net backbone with modified ConvNeXt-style blocks and a reduced block-internal expansion factor, together with a dynamic loss that reweights output channels according to their prediction errors, strengthening gradients for slow-evolving deep-ocean fields. At 1^circ, Samudra 2 increases upper-ocean global-mean temperature R^2 from 0.56 to 0.87 and reduces deep-ocean temperature error by roughly sevenfold. The same architecture scales to 1/2^circ and 1/4^circ over approximately 8-year autoregressive rollouts, recovering mesoscale eddies and sharp western boundary currents. Running on a single GPU, Samudra 2 enables larger ensembles for sea-level projections, ocean heat uptake, and climate variability studies. We provide code, documentation, and benchmark resources at https://openathena.ai/Ocean_Emulator/.

  • 8 authors
·
May 23

Benchmarking the CoW with the TopCoW Challenge: Topology-Aware Anatomical Segmentation of the Circle of Willis for CTA and MRA

The Circle of Willis (CoW) is an important network of arteries connecting major circulations of the brain. Its vascular architecture is believed to affect the risk, severity, and clinical outcome of serious neurovascular diseases. However, characterizing the highly variable CoW anatomy is still a manual and time-consuming expert task. The CoW is usually imaged by two non-invasive angiographic imaging modalities, magnetic resonance angiography (MRA) and computed tomography angiography (CTA), but there exist limited datasets with annotations on CoW anatomy, especially for CTA. Therefore, we organized the TopCoW challenge with the release of an annotated CoW dataset. The TopCoW dataset is the first public dataset with voxel-level annotations for 13 CoW vessel components, enabled by virtual reality technology. It is also the first large dataset using 200 pairs of MRA and CTA from the same patients. As part of the benchmark, we invited submissions worldwide and attracted over 250 registered participants from six continents. The submissions were evaluated on both internal and external test datasets of 226 scans from over five centers. The top performing teams achieved over 90% Dice scores at segmenting the CoW components, over 80% F1 scores at detecting key CoW components, and over 70% balanced accuracy at classifying CoW variants for nearly all test sets. The best algorithms also showed clinical potential in classifying fetal-type posterior cerebral artery and locating aneurysms with CoW anatomy. TopCoW demonstrated the utility and versatility of CoW segmentation algorithms for a wide range of downstream clinical applications with explainability. The annotated datasets and best performing algorithms have been released as public Zenodo records to foster further methodological development and clinical tool building.

  • 113 authors
·
Dec 29, 2023

XiHe: A Data-Driven Model for Global Ocean Eddy-Resolving Forecasting

The leading operational Global Ocean Forecasting Systems (GOFSs) use physics-driven numerical forecasting models that solve the partial differential equations with expensive computation. Recently, specifically in atmosphere weather forecasting, data-driven models have demonstrated significant potential for speeding up environmental forecasting by orders of magnitude, but there is still no data-driven GOFS that matches the forecasting accuracy of the numerical GOFSs. In this paper, we propose the first data-driven 1/12° resolution global ocean eddy-resolving forecasting model named XiHe, which is established from the 25-year France Mercator Ocean International's daily GLORYS12 reanalysis data. XiHe is a hierarchical transformer-based framework coupled with two special designs. One is the land-ocean mask mechanism for focusing exclusively on the global ocean circulation. The other is the ocean-specific block for effectively capturing both local ocean information and global teleconnection. Extensive experiments are conducted under satellite observations, in situ observations, and the IV-TT Class 4 evaluation framework of the world's leading operational GOFSs from January 2019 to December 2020. The results demonstrate that XiHe achieves stronger forecast performance in all testing variables than existing leading operational numerical GOFSs including Mercator Ocean Physical SYstem (PSY4), Global Ice Ocean Prediction System (GIOPS), BLUElinK OceanMAPS (BLK), and Forecast Ocean Assimilation Model (FOAM). Particularly, the accuracy of ocean current forecasting of XiHe out to 60 days is even better than that of PSY4 in just 10 days. Additionally, XiHe is able to forecast the large-scale circulation and the mesoscale eddies. Furthermore, it can make a 10-day forecast in only 0.35 seconds, which accelerates the forecast speed by thousands of times compared to the traditional numerical GOFSs.

  • 19 authors
·
Oct 21, 2024

Eulerian-Lagrangian particle-based model for diffusional growth for the better parameterization of ISM clouds: A road map for improving climate model through small-scale model using observations

The quantitative prediction of the intensity of rainfall events (light or heavy) has remained a challenge in Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models. For the first time the mean coefficient of diffusional growth rates are calculated using an Eulerian-Lagrangian particle-based small-scale model on in situ airborne measurement data of Cloud Aerosol Interaction and Precipitation Enhancement Experiment (CAIPEEX) during monsoon over Indian sub-continent. The results show that diffusional growth rates varies in the range of 0.00025 - 0.0015(cm/s). The generic problem of the overestimation of light rain in NWP models might be related with the choice of cm in the model. It is also shown from DNS experiment using Eulerian-Lagrangian particle-based small-scale model that the relative dispersion is constrained with average values in the range of ~ 0.2 - 0.37 (~ 0.1- 0.26) in less humid (more humid) conditions. This is in agreement with in situ airborne observation (dispersion ~ 0.36) and previous study over Indian sub-continent. The linear relationship between relative dispersion and cloud droplet number concentration (NC) is obtained from this study using CAIPEEX observation over Indian subcontinent. The dispersion based autoconversion-scheme for Indian region must be useful for the Indian summer monsoon precipitation calculation in the general circulation model. The present study also provide valuable guidance for the parameterization of effective radius, important for radiation scheme.

  • 4 authors
·
Mar 2, 2023

From time-series to complex networks: Application to the cerebrovascular flow patterns in atrial fibrillation

A network-based approach is presented to investigate the cerebrovascular flow patterns during atrial fibrillation (AF) with respect to normal sinus rhythm (NSR). AF, the most common cardiac arrhythmia with faster and irregular beating, has been recently and independently associated with the increased risk of dementia. However, the underlying hemodynamic mechanisms relating the two pathologies remain mainly undetermined so far; thus the contribution of modeling and refined statistical tools is valuable. Pressure and flow rate temporal series in NSR and AF are here evaluated along representative cerebral sites (from carotid arteries to capillary brain circulation), exploiting reliable artificially built signals recently obtained from an in silico approach. The complex network analysis evidences, in a synthetic and original way, a dramatic signal variation towards the distal/capillary cerebral regions during AF, which has no counterpart in NSR conditions. At the large artery level, networks obtained from both AF and NSR hemodynamic signals exhibit elongated and chained features, which are typical of pseudo-periodic series. These aspects are almost completely lost towards the microcirculation during AF, where the networks are topologically more circular and present random-like characteristics. As a consequence, all the physiological phenomena at microcerebral level ruled by periodicity - such as regular perfusion, mean pressure per beat, and average nutrient supply at cellular level - can be strongly compromised, since the AF hemodynamic signals assume irregular behaviour and random-like features. Through a powerful approach which is complementary to the classical statistical tools, the present findings further strengthen the potential link between AF hemodynamic and cognitive decline.

  • 3 authors
·
Sep 26, 2017

The Brittleness of AI-Generated Image Watermarking Techniques: Examining Their Robustness Against Visual Paraphrasing Attacks

The rapid advancement of text-to-image generation systems, exemplified by models like Stable Diffusion, Midjourney, Imagen, and DALL-E, has heightened concerns about their potential misuse. In response, companies like Meta and Google have intensified their efforts to implement watermarking techniques on AI-generated images to curb the circulation of potentially misleading visuals. However, in this paper, we argue that current image watermarking methods are fragile and susceptible to being circumvented through visual paraphrase attacks. The proposed visual paraphraser operates in two steps. First, it generates a caption for the given image using KOSMOS-2, one of the latest state-of-the-art image captioning systems. Second, it passes both the original image and the generated caption to an image-to-image diffusion system. During the denoising step of the diffusion pipeline, the system generates a visually similar image that is guided by the text caption. The resulting image is a visual paraphrase and is free of any watermarks. Our empirical findings demonstrate that visual paraphrase attacks can effectively remove watermarks from images. This paper provides a critical assessment, empirically revealing the vulnerability of existing watermarking techniques to visual paraphrase attacks. While we do not propose solutions to this issue, this paper serves as a call to action for the scientific community to prioritize the development of more robust watermarking techniques. Our first-of-its-kind visual paraphrase dataset and accompanying code are publicly available.

  • 10 authors
·
Aug 19, 2024 2

Architect-Ant: Editable Automatic Furnishing of Architectural Floor Plans

Furnished floor plans are fundamental to real estate visualization, interior design, and architectural workflows. However, progress in automatic furniture arrangement has been limited by the lack of real, professionally designed floor-plan datasets with object-level furniture annotations. To address this gap, we introduce AntPlan-270, a curated dataset of 270 architectural floor plans with per-room furniture bounding box annotations across ten residential room categories. Building on this dataset, we present Architect-Ant, an editable automatic furnishing framework powered by a fine-tuned vision-language model. Furniture layouts are represented using a compact, coordinate-based domain-specific language (DSL) that encodes object categories and placements relative to the room geometry. To improve spatial reasoning, we generate procedural reasoning traces that capture architectural constraints such as wall alignment, door and window clearance, circulation, fixture compatibility, and room-specific furniture inventories, and use them to supervise fine-tuning of the model. We then apply preference optimization over candidate object placements to further refine layout quality. The generated DSL can be rasterized into semantic masks and used to condition a Flux-based LoRA renderer, producing realistic blueprint-style furnished floor-plan images while preserving the editable symbolic layout. Experiments on layout furnishing show that Architect-Ant produces geometrically valid and functionally plausible layouts, and suggest a scalable path for furnishing larger structure-only floor-plan datasets.

  • 5 authors
·
Jun 8

Roomer: Reflective Object-Grounded Model Editing and Repair for 3D Indoor Layout Synthesis

Existing indoor layout generators produce globally plausible layouts yet may retain local violations such as collisions, out-of-bounds placements, obstructed openings, and blocked circulation. Most prior work focuses on full-scene synthesis or scene-level optimization, with limited support for identifying responsible objects and locally repairing affected regions. We present Roomer, a reflective repair framework that casts these violations as sparse, object-grounded repair problems. Roomer encodes layouts as ``RoState'' and uses ``RoReview'' to bind measured violations to implicated objects. A geometry-conditioned vision-language model planner proposes a structured local edit, while a deterministic solver validates it and generates a finite set of candidate edits when needed. Each candidate is committed only if full-scene verification confirms that it resolves the target violation without new hard violations or broken protected constraints. We train the planner on Roomer-CC, a controlled-corruption dataset that pairs faulty layouts with object-grounded violation evidence and known-feasible inverse StatePatches. Since existing benchmarks rarely assess whether physically valid layouts are usable, we introduce Roomer-Eval to assess distributional quality, physical validity, and practical usability. Experiments show that Roomer repairs residual violations while preserving valid regions, improves physical validity and usability, and transfers across external generators.

Evaluating Skill and Stability of ArchesWeather and ArchesWeatherGen under Multi-Decadal Climate Simulations

We evaluate the climate simulation capabilities of ArchesWeather and ArchesWeatherGen, two machine learning models originally trained for weather forecasting and evaluated up to a 10-day lead time. ArchesWeather is a deterministic model, while ArchesWeatherGen is a probabilistic flow-matching model leveraging ArchesWeather's forecasts, enabling ensemble-based uncertainty quantification. In this work, we adapt these models to act as forced atmospheric models by using additional conditioning on the monthly mean sea surface temperature (SST) and sea ice cover (SIC) as boundary conditions. In particular, we follow the AI Model Intercomparison Project (AIMIP) Phase 1 protocol, which, analogous to the Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP), proposes a standardized experimental setup to evaluate the climate skill of ML-based forced atmospheric models. We present a comprehensive evaluation of both models under these conditions, including comparison against numerical climate models, ablation studies that examine key design choices in the extension, and an analysis of forced versus unforced configurations. Despite being originally developed for weather forecasting, we demonstrate that forced configurations of ArchesWeather and ArchesWeatherGen produce stable long-term climate simulations, have a stable annual cycle, and capture the drift of many climate variables. The models faithfully reproduce ERA5's climatology, large-scale circulations and interannual variability, and they capture the tails of the distributions.

  • 8 authors
·
Aug 17

ArchSIBench: Benchmarking the Architectural Spatial Intelligence of Vision-Language Models

Architectural spatial intelligence, the ability to recognize and infer architectural space, is fundamental to tasks such as robot navigation, embodied interaction, and 3D scene understanding and generation. Although extensive research has evaluated the basic spatial skills of Vision-Language Models (VLMs) such as relative orientation, distance comparison, and object counting, these tasks cover only the most elementary levels of spatial cognition and largely overlook higher-level cognition of architectural space, including layout understanding, circulation patterns, and functional zoning. In this work, we present ArchSIBench, a Benchmark for Architectural Spatial Intelligence based on the perspectives from architecture, cognitive science, and psychology. ArchSIBench covers five core dimensions: perception, reasoning, navigation, transformation, and configuration, comprising 17 fine-grained subtasks. Through careful manual annotation by experts with architectural backgrounds, we construct 3,000 question-answer pairs to enable comprehensive evaluation of architectural spatial intelligence. Based on ArchSIBench, we evaluate various VLMs and find that the architectural spatial intelligence of most models shows significant differences from human baselines; additionally, models exhibit substantial variability across capability dimensions. Some state-of-the-art models can approach the level of human evaluators without architectural training. However, a clear gap remains compared to human evaluators with architectural training, particularly in spatial transformation and configuration reasoning. We believe that ArchSIBench will provide important insights and systematic resources for measuring and advancing the architectural spatial intelligence of VLMs. The dataset and code are available at https://huggingface.co/datasets/ArchSIBench/ArchSIBench.

  • 8 authors
·
May 19

Adversarial Attacks for Good: A Survey of Proactive Protection across the Visual Content Lifecycle

Once visual content enters an AI pipeline, its owner often retains little technical control over how it is used. Legal and regulatory remedies can address misuse, but many technical interventions must be applied earlier, when content is released or accessed. This survey examines the protective paradigm that has grown around this intervention point, which we call adversarial attacks for good. Perturbations and structured signals long studied as attacks on learned models are instead applied by data owners, creators, platforms, or auditors to disrupt unauthorized automation or support later accountability. Five research communities have arrived at this inversion largely independently, each addressing a different stage of a visual asset's lifecycle: privacy filters against unwanted recognition at sharing time, unlearnable examples against unauthorized training, generative safeguards against malicious editing or imitation, adversarial CAPTCHAs for access control against automated agents, and provenance mechanisms for post-circulation attribution. Although developed in separate venues with incompatible success criteria, many of these methods exploit persistent gaps between human perception, semantic interpretation, and machine inference, suggesting that the paradigm remains relevant as visual pipelines evolve toward multimodal models and autonomous agents. To make their claims comparable, we evaluate all five families along shared axes of transferability, adaptability, and deployment readiness. Across the lifecycle, we find that most protections are still validated mainly against static or weakly adaptive adversaries, while evidence beyond controlled benchmarks remains scarce. We close by consolidating cross-stage countermeasures and open problems for robust, composable, and deployable owner-side protection.

  • 17 authors
·
Aug 4 2