Daily Papers

Current research on video hallucination mitigation primarily focuses on isolated error types, leaving compositional hallucinations, arising from incorrect reasoning over multiple interacting spatial and temporal factors largely underexplored. We introduce OmniVCHall, a benchmark designed to systematically evaluate both isolated and compositional hallucinations in video multimodal large language models (VLLMs). OmniVCHall spans diverse video domains, introduces a novel camera-based hallucination type, and defines a fine-grained taxonomy, together with adversarial answer options (e.g., "All are correct" and "None of the above") to prevent shortcut reasoning. The evaluations of 39 representative VLLMs reveal that even advanced models (e.g., Qwen3-VL and GPT-5) exhibit substantial performance degradation. We propose TriCD, a contrastive decoding framework with a triple-pathway calibration mechanism. An adaptive perturbation controller dynamically selects distracting operations to construct negative video variants, while a saliency-guided enhancement module adaptively reinforces grounded token-wise visual evidences. These components are optimized via reinforcement learning to encourage precise decision-making under compositional hallucination settings. Experimental results show that TriCD consistently improves performance across two representative backbones, achieving an average accuracy improvement of over 10%. The data and code can be find at https://github.com/BMRETURN/OmniVCHall.

Significant progress has been made in photo-realistic scene reconstruction over recent years. Various disparate efforts have enabled capabilities such as multi-appearance or large-scale modeling; however, there lacks a welldesigned dataset that can evaluate the holistic progress of scene reconstruction. We introduce a collection of imagery of the Johns Hopkins Homewood Campus, acquired at different seasons, times of day, in multiple elevations, and across a large scale. We perform a multi-stage calibration process, which efficiently recover camera parameters from phone and drone cameras. This dataset can enable researchers to rigorously explore challenges in unconstrained settings, including effects of inconsistent illumination, reconstruction from large scale and from significantly different perspectives, etc.

We introduce a framework for calibrating machine learning models so that their predictions satisfy explicit, finite-sample statistical guarantees. Our calibration algorithms work with any underlying model and (unknown) data-generating distribution and do not require model refitting. The framework addresses, among other examples, false discovery rate control in multi-label classification, intersection-over-union control in instance segmentation, and the simultaneous control of the type-1 error of outlier detection and confidence set coverage in classification or regression. Our main insight is to reframe the risk-control problem as multiple hypothesis testing, enabling techniques and mathematical arguments different from those in the previous literature. We use the framework to provide new calibration methods for several core machine learning tasks, with detailed worked examples in computer vision and tabular medical data.

Applications such as weather forecasting and personalized medicine demand models that output calibrated probability estimates---those representative of the true likelihood of a prediction. Most models are not calibrated out of the box but are recalibrated by post-processing model outputs. We find in this work that popular recalibration methods like Platt scaling and temperature scaling are (i) less calibrated than reported, and (ii) current techniques cannot estimate how miscalibrated they are. An alternative method, histogram binning, has measurable calibration error but is sample inefficient---it requires O(B/ε^2) samples, compared to O(1/ε^2) for scaling methods, where B is the number of distinct probabilities the model can output. To get the best of both worlds, we introduce the scaling-binning calibrator, which first fits a parametric function to reduce variance and then bins the function values to actually ensure calibration. This requires only O(1/ε^2 + B) samples. Next, we show that we can estimate a model's calibration error more accurately using an estimator from the meteorological community---or equivalently measure its calibration error with fewer samples (O(B) instead of O(B)). We validate our approach with multiclass calibration experiments on CIFAR-10 and ImageNet, where we obtain a 35% lower calibration error than histogram binning and, unlike scaling methods, guarantees on true calibration. In these experiments, we also estimate the calibration error and ECE more accurately than the commonly used plugin estimators. We implement all these methods in a Python library: https://pypi.org/project/uncertainty-calibration

Dense matching methods like DUSt3R regress pairwise pointmaps for 3D reconstruction. However, the reliance on pairwise prediction and the limited generalization capability inherently restrict the global geometric consistency. In this work, we introduce Test3R, a surprisingly simple test-time learning technique that significantly boosts geometric accuracy. Using image triplets (I_1,I_2,I_3), Test3R generates reconstructions from pairs (I_1,I_2) and (I_1,I_3). The core idea is to optimize the network at test time via a self-supervised objective: maximizing the geometric consistency between these two reconstructions relative to the common image I_1. This ensures the model produces cross-pair consistent outputs, regardless of the inputs. Extensive experiments demonstrate that our technique significantly outperforms previous state-of-the-art methods on the 3D reconstruction and multi-view depth estimation tasks. Moreover, it is universally applicable and nearly cost-free, making it easily applied to other models and implemented with minimal test-time training overhead and parameter footprint. Code is available at https://github.com/nopQAQ/Test3R.

We propose causal isotonic calibration, a novel nonparametric method for calibrating predictors of heterogeneous treatment effects. Furthermore, we introduce cross-calibration, a data-efficient variant of calibration that eliminates the need for hold-out calibration sets. Cross-calibration leverages cross-fitted predictors and generates a single calibrated predictor using all available data. Under weak conditions that do not assume monotonicity, we establish that both causal isotonic calibration and cross-calibration achieve fast doubly-robust calibration rates, as long as either the propensity score or outcome regression is estimated accurately in a suitable sense. The proposed causal isotonic calibrator can be wrapped around any black-box learning algorithm, providing robust and distribution-free calibration guarantees while preserving predictive performance.

Out of all existing frameworks for surgical workflow analysis in endoscopic videos, action triplet recognition stands out as the only one aiming to provide truly fine-grained and comprehensive information on surgical activities. This information, presented as <instrument, verb, target> combinations, is highly challenging to be accurately identified. Triplet components can be difficult to recognize individually; in this task, it requires not only performing recognition simultaneously for all three triplet components, but also correctly establishing the data association between them. To achieve this task, we introduce our new model, the Rendezvous (RDV), which recognizes triplets directly from surgical videos by leveraging attention at two different levels. We first introduce a new form of spatial attention to capture individual action triplet components in a scene; called Class Activation Guided Attention Mechanism (CAGAM). This technique focuses on the recognition of verbs and targets using activations resulting from instruments. To solve the association problem, our RDV model adds a new form of semantic attention inspired by Transformer networks; called Multi-Head of Mixed Attention (MHMA). This technique uses several cross and self attentions to effectively capture relationships between instruments, verbs, and targets. We also introduce CholecT50 - a dataset of 50 endoscopic videos in which every frame has been annotated with labels from 100 triplet classes. Our proposed RDV model significantly improves the triplet prediction mean AP by over 9% compared to the state-of-the-art methods on this dataset.

Recent advancements in Spatial Transcriptomics (ST) technology have facilitated detailed gene expression analysis within tissue contexts. However, the high costs and methodological limitations of ST necessitate a more robust predictive model. In response, this paper introduces TRIPLEX, a novel deep learning framework designed to predict spatial gene expression from Whole Slide Images (WSIs). TRIPLEX uniquely harnesses multi-resolution features, capturing cellular morphology at individual spots, the local context around these spots, and the global tissue organization. By integrating these features through an effective fusion strategy, TRIPLEX achieves accurate gene expression prediction. Our comprehensive benchmark study, conducted on three public ST datasets and supplemented with Visium data from 10X Genomics, demonstrates that TRIPLEX outperforms current state-of-the-art models in Mean Squared Error (MSE), Mean Absolute Error (MAE), and Pearson Correlation Coefficient (PCC). The model's predictions align closely with ground truth gene expression profiles and tumor annotations, underscoring TRIPLEX's potential in advancing cancer diagnosis and treatment.

Image research has shown substantial attention in deblurring networks in recent years. Yet, their practical usage in real-world deblurring, especially motion blur, remains limited due to the lack of pixel-aligned training triplets (background, blurred image, and blur heat map) and restricted information inherent in blurred images. This paper presents a simple yet efficient framework to synthetic and restore motion blur images using Inertial Measurement Unit (IMU) data. Notably, the framework includes a strategy for training triplet generation, and a Gyroscope-Aided Motion Deblurring (GAMD) network for blurred image restoration. The rationale is that through harnessing IMU data, we can determine the transformation of the camera pose during the image exposure phase, facilitating the deduction of the motion trajectory (aka. blur trajectory) for each point inside the three-dimensional space. Thus, the synthetic triplets using our strategy are inherently close to natural motion blur, strictly pixel-aligned, and mass-producible. Through comprehensive experiments, we demonstrate the advantages of the proposed framework: only two-pixel errors between our synthetic and real-world blur trajectories, a marked improvement (around 33.17%) of the state-of-the-art deblurring method MIMO on Peak Signal-to-Noise Ratio (PSNR).

Long-horizon LLM multi-agent systems face reliability risks invisible to infrastructure monitoring. We propose the ADE Predictive Reliability Framework (ADE-PRF), enabling proactive health trajectory prediction from passive degradation detection. ADE-PRF aggregates 20 heterogeneous signals across five layers into a Trust Margin (TM) metric (39.2-point dynamic range). Triple-method parallel prediction enables 8-hour forecasts: the Exponential method achieves MAE=1.228, Direction Accuracy=76.8%, with 99.65% within +/-10-point tolerance. Production validation spans 380,227 predictions and 280,579 validations across six agent profiles over 15 continuous days, plus seven sandbox-controlled experiments. Key findings include detection of "false prosperity" -- degradation concealed by normal surface metrics -- and immediate TM coupling with ground-truth states upon ADE plugin integration, with 16/20 factors relying on ADE-collected data. Exponential consistently outperforms Kalman. ADE-PRF provides among the earliest reliability quantification with forward-looking warnings for production LLM agents.

Surgical triplet detection has emerged as a pivotal task in surgical video analysis, with significant implications for performance assessment and the training of novice surgeons. However, existing datasets such as CholecT50 exhibit critical limitations: they lack precise spatial bounding box annotations, provide inconsistent and clinically ungrounded temporal labels, and rely on a single data source, which limits model generalizability.To address these shortcomings, we introduce ProstaTD, a large-scale, multi-institutional dataset for surgical triplet detection, developed from the technically demanding domain of robot-assisted prostatectomy. ProstaTD offers clinically defined temporal boundaries and high-precision bounding box annotations for each structured triplet action. The dataset comprises 60,529 video frames and 165,567 annotated triplet instances, collected from 21 surgeries performed across multiple institutions, reflecting a broad range of surgical practices and intraoperative conditions. The annotation process was conducted under rigorous medical supervision and involved more than 50 contributors, including practicing surgeons and medically trained annotators, through multiple iterative phases of labeling and verification. ProstaTD is the largest and most diverse surgical triplet dataset to date, providing a robust foundation for fair benchmarking, the development of reliable surgical AI systems, and scalable tools for procedural training.

Deep neural networks have demonstrated remarkable performance across numerous learning tasks but often suffer from miscalibration, resulting in unreliable probability outputs. This has inspired many recent works on mitigating miscalibration, particularly through post-hoc recalibration methods that aim to obtain calibrated probabilities without sacrificing the classification performance of pre-trained models. In this study, we summarize and categorize previous works into three general strategies: intuitively designed methods, binning-based methods, and methods based on formulations of ideal calibration. Through theoretical and practical analysis, we highlight ten common limitations in previous approaches. To address these limitations, we propose a probabilistic learning framework for calibration called h-calibration, which theoretically constructs an equivalent learning formulation for canonical calibration with boundedness. On this basis, we design a simple yet effective post-hoc calibration algorithm. Our method not only overcomes the ten identified limitations but also achieves markedly better performance than traditional methods, as validated by extensive experiments. We further analyze, both theoretically and experimentally, the relationship and advantages of our learning objective compared to traditional proper scoring rule. In summary, our probabilistic framework derives an approximately equivalent differentiable objective for learning error-bounded calibrated probabilities, elucidating the correspondence and convergence properties of computational statistics with respect to theoretical bounds in canonical calibration. The theoretical effectiveness is verified on standard post-hoc calibration benchmarks by achieving state-of-the-art performance. This research offers valuable reference for learning reliable likelihood in related fields.

Pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) segmentation on contrast-enhanced CT is inherently ambiguous: inter-rater disagreement among experts reflects genuine uncertainty rather than annotation noise. Standard deep learning approaches assume a single ground truth, producing probabilistic outputs that can be poorly calibrated and difficult to interpret under such ambiguity. We present TwinTrack, a framework that addresses this gap through post-hoc calibration of ensemble segmentation probabilities to the empirical mean human response (MHR) -the fraction of expert annotators labeling a voxel as tumor. Calibrated probabilities are thus directly interpretable as the expected proportion of annotators assigning the tumor label, explicitly modeling inter-rater disagreement. The proposed post-hoc calibration procedure is simple and requires only a small multi-rater calibration set. It consistently improves calibration metrics over standard approaches when evaluated on the MICCAI 2025 CURVAS-PDACVI multi-rater benchmark.

In this paper, we uncover a systematic bias in the evaluation paradigm of adopting large language models~(LLMs), e.g., GPT-4, as a referee to score and compare the quality of responses generated by candidate models. We find that the quality ranking of candidate responses can be easily hacked by simply altering their order of appearance in the context. This manipulation allows us to skew the evaluation result, making one model appear considerably superior to the other, e.g., Vicuna-13B could beat ChatGPT on 66 over 80 tested queries with ChatGPT as an evaluator. To address this issue, we propose a calibration framework with three simple yet effective strategies: 1) Multiple Evidence Calibration, which requires the evaluator model to generate multiple evaluation evidence before assigning ratings; 2) Balanced Position Calibration, which aggregates results across various orders to determine the final score; 3) Human-in-the-Loop Calibration, which introduces a balanced position diversity entropy to measure the difficulty of each example and seeks human assistance when needed. We also manually annotate the "win/tie/lose" outcomes of responses from ChatGPT and Vicuna-13B in the Vicuna Benchmark's question prompt, and extensive experiments demonstrate that our approach successfully mitigates evaluation bias, resulting in closer alignment with human judgments. We release our code and human annotation at https://github.com/i-Eval/FairEval to facilitate future research.

Reliable probability estimates are critical in many machine learning applications, yet modern classifiers are often poorly calibrated. Post-hoc calibration provides a simple and widely used solution, but the large number of proposed methods, combined with small-scale and inconsistent evaluations, makes it difficult to determine which approaches are truly effective in practice. We introduce a large-scale, standardized benchmark for post-hoc calibration, covering nearly 2000 experiments across tabular and computer vision tasks, including binary, multiclass, and large-scale classification settings. Our benchmark aggregates predictions from a diverse set of classical models, modern deep learning architectures, and foundation models, and provides unified, reproducible implementations of dozens of calibration methods within a common evaluation framework. We argue that Post-Hoc Improvement (PHI) in proper scoring rules offers a principled alternative to traditional calibration error estimators for comparing post-hoc methods, capturing both calibration quality and potential degradation to the model's predictive performance. Using this framework, we conduct the most comprehensive empirical study of post-hoc calibration to date. Our results reveal consistent patterns across domains: smooth calibration functions outperform binning-based approaches, dedicated multiclass methods are essential in high-dimensional settings, and generic machine learning models are not competitive without calibration-specific design. To facilitate future research, we release all data, code, and evaluation tools, providing a plug-and-play benchmark for developing and comparing calibration methods.

As AI-based code generation becomes widespread, researchers are investigating the calibration of code LLMs - ensuring their confidence scores faithfully represent the true likelihood of code correctness. To do so, we investigate multicalibration, which can capture additional factors about a coding problem, such as complexity, code length, or programming language used. We study four multicalibration approaches on three function synthesis benchmarks, using latest-generation code LLMs (Qwen3 Coder, GPT-OSS, DeepSeek-R1-Distill). Our results demonstrate that multicalibration can yield distinct improvements over both uncalibrated token likelihoods (+1.03 in skill score) and baseline calibrations (+0.37 in skill score). We study the influence of the aforementioned factors in ablations, and make our dataset (consisting of code generations, likelihoods, and correctness labels) available for future research on code LLM calibration.

Progress in computer-aided synthesis planning (CASP) is obscured by the lack of standardized evaluation infrastructure and the reliance on metrics that prioritize topological completion over chemical validity. We introduce RetroCast, a unified evaluation suite that standardizes heterogeneous model outputs into a common schema to enable statistically rigorous, apples-to-apples comparison. The framework includes a reproducible benchmarking pipeline with stratified sampling and bootstrapped confidence intervals, accompanied by SynthArena, an interactive platform for qualitative route inspection. We utilize this infrastructure to evaluate leading search-based and sequence-based algorithms on a new suite of standardized benchmarks. Our analysis reveals a divergence between "solvability" (stock-termination rate) and route quality; high solvability scores often mask chemical invalidity or fail to correlate with the reproduction of experimental ground truths. Furthermore, we identify a "complexity cliff" in which search-based methods, despite high solvability rates, exhibit a sharp performance decay in reconstructing long-range synthetic plans compared to sequence-based approaches. We release the full framework, benchmark definitions, and a standardized database of model predictions to support transparent and reproducible development in the field.

Extrinsic calibration is essential for multi-sensor fusion, existing methods rely on structured targets or fully-excited data, limiting real-world applicability. Online calibration further suffers from weak excitation, leading to unreliable estimates. To address these limitations, we propose a reinforcement learning (RL)-based extrinsic calibration framework that formulates extrinsic calibration as a decision-making problem, directly optimizes SE(3) extrinsics to enhance odometry accuracy. Our approach leverages a probabilistic Bingham distribution to model 3D rotations, ensuring stable optimization while inherently retaining quaternion symmetry. A trajectory alignment reward mechanism enables robust calibration without structured targets by quantitatively evaluating estimated tightly-coupled trajectory against a reference trajectory. Additionally, an automated data selection module filters uninformative samples, significantly improving efficiency and scalability for large-scale datasets. Extensive experiments on UAVs, UGVs, and handheld platforms demonstrate that our method outperforms traditional optimization-based approaches, achieving high-precision calibration even under weak excitation conditions. Our framework simplifies deployment on diverse robotic platforms by eliminating the need for high-quality initial extrinsics and enabling calibration from routine operating data. The code is available at https://github.com/APRIL-ZJU/learn-to-calibrate.

Collaborative perception enhances sensing in multirobot and vehicular networks by fusing information from multiple agents, improving perception accuracy and sensing range. However, mobility and non-rigid sensor mounts introduce extrinsic calibration errors, necessitating online calibration, further complicated by limited overlap in sensing regions. Moreover, maintaining fresh information is crucial for timely and accurate sensing. To address calibration errors and ensure timely and accurate perception, we propose a robust task-oriented communication strategy to optimize online self-calibration and efficient feature sharing for Real-time Adaptive Collaborative Perception (R-ACP). Specifically, we first formulate an Age of Perceived Targets (AoPT) minimization problem to capture data timeliness of multi-view streaming. Then, in the calibration phase, we introduce a channel-aware self-calibration technique based on reidentification (Re-ID), which adaptively compresses key features according to channel capacities, effectively addressing calibration issues via spatial and temporal cross-camera correlations. In the streaming phase, we tackle the trade-off between bandwidth and inference accuracy by leveraging an Information Bottleneck (IB) based encoding method to adjust video compression rates based on task relevance, thereby reducing communication overhead and latency. Finally, we design a priority-aware network to filter corrupted features to mitigate performance degradation from packet corruption. Extensive studies demonstrate that our framework outperforms five baselines, improving multiple object detection accuracy (MODA) by 25.49% and reducing communication costs by 51.36% under severely poor channel conditions. Code will be made publicly available: github.com/fangzr/R-ACP.

AI agents are rapidly advancing from passive language models to autonomous systems executing complex, multi-step tasks. Yet their overconfidence in failure remains a fundamental barrier to deployment in high-stakes settings. Existing calibration methods, built for static single-turn outputs, cannot address the unique challenges of agentic systems, such as compounding errors along trajectories, uncertainty from external tools, and opaque failure modes. To address these challenges, we introduce, for the first time, the problem of Agentic Confidence Calibration and propose Holistic Trajectory Calibration (HTC), a novel diagnostic framework that extracts rich process-level features ranging from macro dynamics to micro stability across an agent's entire trajectory. Powered by a simple, interpretable model, HTC consistently surpasses strong baselines in both calibration and discrimination, across eight benchmarks, multiple LLMs, and diverse agent frameworks. Beyond performance, HTC delivers three essential advances: it provides interpretability by revealing the signals behind failure, enables transferability by applying across domains without retraining, and achieves generalization through a General Agent Calibrator (GAC) that achieves the best calibration (lowest ECE) on the out-of-domain GAIA benchmark. Together, these contributions establish a new process-centric paradigm for confidence calibration, providing a framework for diagnosing and enhancing the reliability of AI agents.

Accurate multi-sensor calibration is essential for deploying robust perception systems in applications such as autonomous driving and intelligent transportation. Existing LiDAR-camera calibration methods often rely on manually placed targets, preliminary parameter estimates, or intensive data preprocessing, limiting their scalability and adaptability in real-world settings. In this work, we propose a fully automatic, targetless, and online calibration framework, CalibRefine, which directly processes raw LiDAR point clouds and camera images. Our approach is divided into four stages: (1) a Common Feature Discriminator that leverages relative spatial positions, visual appearance embeddings, and semantic class cues to identify and generate reliable LiDAR-camera correspondences, (2) a coarse homography-based calibration that uses the matched feature correspondences to estimate an initial transformation between the LiDAR and camera frames, serving as the foundation for further refinement, (3) an iterative refinement to incrementally improve alignment as additional data frames become available, and (4) an attention-based refinement that addresses non-planar distortions by leveraging a Vision Transformer and cross-attention mechanisms. Extensive experiments on two urban traffic datasets demonstrate that CalibRefine achieves high-precision calibration with minimal human input, outperforming state-of-the-art targetless methods and matching or surpassing manually tuned baselines. Our results show that robust object-level feature matching, combined with iterative refinement and self-supervised attention-based refinement, enables reliable sensor alignment in complex real-world conditions without ground-truth matrices or elaborate preprocessing. Code is available at https://github.com/radar-lab/Lidar_Camera_Automatic_Calibration

Network calibration aims to accurately estimate the level of confidences, which is particularly important for employing deep neural networks in real-world systems. Recent approaches leverage mixup to calibrate the network's predictions during training. However, they do not consider the problem that mixtures of labels in mixup may not accurately represent the actual distribution of augmented samples. In this paper, we present RankMixup, a novel mixup-based framework alleviating the problem of the mixture of labels for network calibration. To this end, we propose to use an ordinal ranking relationship between raw and mixup-augmented samples as an alternative supervisory signal to the label mixtures for network calibration. We hypothesize that the network should estimate a higher level of confidence for the raw samples than the augmented ones (Fig.1). To implement this idea, we introduce a mixup-based ranking loss (MRL) that encourages lower confidences for augmented samples compared to raw ones, maintaining the ranking relationship. We also propose to leverage the ranking relationship among multiple mixup-augmented samples to further improve the calibration capability. Augmented samples with larger mixing coefficients are expected to have higher confidences and vice versa (Fig.1). That is, the order of confidences should be aligned with that of mixing coefficients. To this end, we introduce a novel loss, M-NDCG, in order to reduce the number of misaligned pairs of the coefficients and confidences. Extensive experimental results on standard benchmarks for network calibration demonstrate the effectiveness of RankMixup.

Retrosynthesis, which aims to find a route to synthesize a target molecule from commercially available starting materials, is a critical task in drug discovery and materials design. Recently, the combination of ML-based single-step reaction predictors with multi-step planners has led to promising results. However, the single-step predictors are mostly trained offline to optimize the single-step accuracy, without considering complete routes. Here, we leverage reinforcement learning (RL) to improve the single-step predictor, by using a tree-shaped MDP to optimize complete routes. Specifically, we propose a novel online training algorithm, called Planning with Dual Value Networks (PDVN), which alternates between the planning phase and updating phase. In PDVN, we construct two separate value networks to predict the synthesizability and cost of molecules, respectively. To maintain the single-step accuracy, we design a two-branch network structure for the single-step predictor. On the widely-used USPTO dataset, our PDVN algorithm improves the search success rate of existing multi-step planners (e.g., increasing the success rate from 85.79% to 98.95% for Retro*, and reducing the number of model calls by half while solving 99.47% molecules for RetroGraph). Additionally, PDVN helps find shorter synthesis routes (e.g., reducing the average route length from 5.76 to 4.83 for Retro*, and from 5.63 to 4.78 for RetroGraph).

Calibration, the alignment of predicted probabilities with true outcome frequencies, is essential for reliable decision-making. While extensively studied for classification and regression, calibration has not been formally addressed for probabilistic label ranking, where the goal is to predict a distribution over orderings of a label set. Naively treating rankings as classes ignores their structure and fails to capture important modalities such as pairwise and top-k predictions. We formalize calibration for label ranking and develop a hierarchy of notions covering full rankings, sub-rankings, and top-k rankings. We prove that full-rank calibration implies the others but not conversely, and sub-ranking and top-k calibration are incomparable. Empirically, we find popular label ranking models are often poorly calibrated, with substantial differences between sub-ranking and top-k metrics. Applying our framework to RLHF reward models, we find that calibration correlates strongly but not perfectly with benchmark accuracy, suggesting it captures a meaningful quality dimension beyond top-1 accuracy. These findings motivate future work on understanding the downstream effects of miscalibration and developing methods to correct it.

LLM cascades and model routing promise lower inference cost by sending easy queries to a small model and escalating hard ones to a large model, but most deployed routers use uncalibrated confidence scores and require per-workload threshold tuning. We present UCCI, a calibration-first router that maps token-level margin uncertainty to a per-query error probability via isotonic regression and selects the escalation threshold by constrained cost minimization. Under three explicit assumptions, threshold policies on the calibrated score are cost-optimal, and isotonic calibration achieves O(n^{-1/3}) sample complexity for expected calibration error (ECE). On a production named entity recognition workload of 75,000 queries served by 4B and 12B instruction-tuned LLMs on H100 GPUs, UCCI cuts inference cost by 31% (95% CI: [27%, 35%]) at micro-F1 = 0.91 while reducing ECE from 0.12 to 0.03. At the same operating point, UCCI beats entropy thresholding, split-conformal routing, and a FrugalGPT-style learned threshold. All cascade results use end-to-end routing on actual model outputs and measured H100 latency, not simulated routing from global accuracies or nominal API prices.

Stacking heterogeneous vision backbones (CNNs, ViTs, and hybrids) is the de facto recipe for accuracy, calibration, and robustness, yet two coupled pathologies limit its returns. Prediction-space multicollinearity ill-conditions the meta-learner's Gram matrix, inflating weight variance and producing brittle solutions on a thin manifold. Calibration collapse compounds constituent miscalibration through naive linear stacking, so adding more models can hurt expected calibration error (ECE). Existing remedies, ridge regularization, greedy selection, model soups, and SWAG address at most one of these issues, and none jointly target conditioning and calibration in heterogeneous prediction pools. We introduce CORE-STACK+, a preconditioning pipeline with four components: (i) a kernelized redundancy filter that removes non-linear inter-model dependencies invisible to Pearson correlation, using Centered Kernel Alignment (CKA) [23]; (ii) a <15K-parameter differentiable meta-feature gate that learns per-sample attention over ensemble statistics; (iii) a spectrum-adaptive Ridge penalty lambda^{star}=lmax(Chat)/SNR(Chat) derived from a Marchenko-Pastur signal-noise decomposition, eliminating nested cross-validation; and (iv) a Laplace-approximate Bayesian blender replacing inverse-RMSE heuristics. We prove a PAC-Bayes excess-risk bound that, for the first time, jointly accounts for prediction-space redundancy and meta-learner capacity. Across six benchmarks, CORE-STACK+ delivers +1.8% top-1 on ImageNet-1K, -4.2 mCE on ImageNet-C, +0.9 mIoU on ADE20K, and +1.3 AP on COCO, while reducing retained models by 35-57% and inference FLOPs by up to 41%. ECE improves 2.1times over deep ensembles without post hoc temperature scaling.

Post-hoc calibration corrects reported confidence, yet a multiclass calibrator can also change the associated top-1 prediction. Accuracy captures only the net effect of these changes on correctness, not how often predictions change; the Top-1 Prediction Change Rate (TPCR) instead measures this frequency. We propose Calibrator-Output Repair for Top-1 Decision Preservation (CORD), the first post-fit adapter to impose exact prediction preservation by repairing the full calibrated probability vector. From the original and calibrated outputs alone, CORD determines the mass assigned to the original top-1. The calibrated conditional distribution allocates the remaining mass over the other classes, yielding a repaired vector whose own argmax recovers the original prediction. On the calibration split, CORD coordinates the repaired masses to retain the calibrated outputs' mean mass on original predictions whenever attainable. The adapter alters neither the fitted calibrator nor its direct output, fits no additional supervised map, and requires no user- or validation-tuned hyperparameter. Across CIFAR-10/100 and ImageNet-1K, CORD attains zero TPCR by construction and lowers mean ECE, NLL, and Brier relative to the corresponding direct outputs in every dataset; paired gains persist under distribution shift and across calibration-set sizes. CORD thus removes the preservation constraint from calibrator fitting and assigns exact recovery of the original decision to subsequent output repair. Our code is available at https://github.com/labhai/CORD.

Model routing aims to select the most suitable model from a candidate pool for each query, balancing quality and cost. Existing VLM routing research is limited to traditional VQA evaluation, lacks systematic calibration optimization for open-set scenarios, and employs training objectives that dilute multi-positive signals via softmax normalization without incorporating cost. We address these limitations with three contributions: (1)VLM-ExecRouterBench, the first execution-oriented VLM routing benchmark covering Code, Agentic, and Search domains with 11 candidate models spanning nearly two orders of magnitude in pricing; (2)SCOPE-Router, a dual-tower router that matches queries to model behavior profiles constructed via hybrid calibration (random/diagnostic/diversity sampling), enabling new models to join routing without retraining; (3)CRM+RCCR, an architecture-agnostic cost-aware objective that encodes cost preference into continuous relevance targets through per-pair independent scoring, eliminating multi-positive dilution while regularizing queries with similar routing preferences to be closer in the routing space. Empirically, SCOPE-Router achieves the best Rank Score on all three benchmarks, surpassing the runner-up by 1.84 points under OOD settings and by 6.75 points under doubly OOD open-set evaluation. When applied to four diverse routers, CRM+RCCR improves Rank Score by 1.25--6.21 points.

DNA-synthesis providers screen incoming orders by searching the requested sequence against curated hazard lists. We show that this baseline collapses to a 100% false-flag rate when the hazardous sequence comes from a taxonomic family absent from the reference set: under Conformal Risk Control's certified miss-rate constraint, a low-discrimination signal forces the threshold below the entire test-benign mass. We compose three signals derived from a synthesis order's public annotation: k-mer Jaccard similarity to known toxins, the trimmed-mean score of a five-LLM judge panel, and cosine similarity to clustered embedding centroids. Fused under a monotone logistic aggregator and calibrated by Conformal Risk Control, the resulting screener certifies E[FNR] le α. Across ten leave-one-taxonomic-family-out folds at α=0.05 on UniProt KW-0800 reviewed toxins, the calibrated screener achieves 0% test miss rate on every fold and 0% test false-flag rate on nine of ten folds. The bound's finite-sample slack 1/(n_{cal}+1) caps the certifiable miss rate at 1.77% on our 200-hazard subsample; reaching procurement-grade α=10^{-3} requires an 18times larger calibration set, which the full reviewed UniProt KW-0800 corpus is large enough to deliver. The binding constraint on certifiable DNA-synthesis screening is calibration data, not algorithms. Code: https://github.com/najmulhasan-code/crc-screen

We present AnyCalib, a method for calibrating the intrinsic parameters of a camera from a single in-the-wild image, that is agnostic to the camera model. Current methods are predominantly tailored to specific camera models and/or require extrinsic cues, such as the direction of gravity, to be visible in the image. In contrast, we argue that the perspective and distortion cues inherent in images are sufficient for model-agnostic camera calibration. To demonstrate this, we frame the calibration process as the regression of the rays corresponding to each pixel. We show, for the first time, that this intermediate representation allows for a closed-form recovery of the intrinsics for a wide range of camera models, including but not limited to: pinhole, Brown-Conrady and Kannala-Brandt. Our approach also applies to edited -- cropped and stretched -- images. Experimentally, we demonstrate that AnyCalib consistently outperforms alternative methods, including 3D foundation models, despite being trained on orders of magnitude less data. Code is available at https://github.com/javrtg/AnyCalib.

Whenever we use devices to take measurements, calibration is indispensable. While the purpose of calibration is to reduce bias and uncertainty in the measurements, it can be quite difficult, expensive, and sometimes even impossible to implement. We study a challenging problem called self-calibration, i.e., the task of designing an algorithm for devices so that the algorithm is able to perform calibration automatically. More precisely, we consider the setup y = A(d) x + epsilon where only partial information about the sensing matrix A(d) is known and where A(d) linearly depends on d. The goal is to estimate the calibration parameter d (resolve the uncertainty in the sensing process) and the signal/object of interests x simultaneously. For three different models of practical relevance, we show how such a bilinear inverse problem, including blind deconvolution as an important example, can be solved via a simple linear least squares approach. As a consequence, the proposed algorithms are numerically extremely efficient, thus potentially allowing for real-time deployment. We also present a variation of the least squares approach, which leads to a~spectral method, where the solution to the bilinear inverse problem can be found by computing the singular vector associated with the smallest singular value of a certain matrix derived from the bilinear system. Explicit theoretical guarantees and stability theory are derived for both techniques; and the number of sampling complexity is nearly optimal (up to a poly-log factor). Applications in imaging sciences and signal processing are discussed and numerical simulations are presented to demonstrate the effectiveness and efficiency of our approach.

Multi-modality fusion and multi-task learning are becoming trendy in 3D autonomous driving scenario, considering robust prediction and computation budget. However, naively extending the existing framework to the domain of multi-modality multi-task learning remains ineffective and even poisonous due to the notorious modality bias and task conflict. Previous works manually coordinate the learning framework with empirical knowledge, which may lead to sub-optima. To mitigate the issue, we propose a novel yet simple multi-level gradient calibration learning framework across tasks and modalities during optimization. Specifically, the gradients, produced by the task heads and used to update the shared backbone, will be calibrated at the backbone's last layer to alleviate the task conflict. Before the calibrated gradients are further propagated to the modality branches of the backbone, their magnitudes will be calibrated again to the same level, ensuring the downstream tasks pay balanced attention to different modalities. Experiments on large-scale benchmark nuScenes demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method, eg, an absolute 14.4% mIoU improvement on map segmentation and 1.4% mAP improvement on 3D detection, advancing the application of 3D autonomous driving in the domain of multi-modality fusion and multi-task learning. We also discuss the links between modalities and tasks.

We study the connection between multicalibration and boosting for squared error regression. First we prove a useful characterization of multicalibration in terms of a ``swap regret'' like condition on squared error. Using this characterization, we give an exceedingly simple algorithm that can be analyzed both as a boosting algorithm for regression and as a multicalibration algorithm for a class H that makes use only of a standard squared error regression oracle for H. We give a weak learning assumption on H that ensures convergence to Bayes optimality without the need to make any realizability assumptions -- giving us an agnostic boosting algorithm for regression. We then show that our weak learning assumption on H is both necessary and sufficient for multicalibration with respect to H to imply Bayes optimality. We also show that if H satisfies our weak learning condition relative to another class C then multicalibration with respect to H implies multicalibration with respect to C. Finally we investigate the empirical performance of our algorithm experimentally using an open source implementation that we make available. Our code repository can be found at https://github.com/Declancharrison/Level-Set-Boosting.

Machine learning has markedly advanced de novo peptide sequencing (DNS) for mass spectrometry-based proteomics. DNS tools offer a reliable way to identify peptides without relying on reference databases, extending proteomic analysis and unlocking applications into less-charted regions of the proteome. However, they still face a key limitation. DNS tools lack principled methods for estimating false discovery rates (FDR) and instead rely on model-specific confidence scores that are often miscalibrated. This limits trust in results, hinders cross-model comparisons and reduces validation success. Here we present Winnow, a model-agnostic framework for estimating FDR from calibrated DNS outputs. Winnow maps raw model scores to calibrated confidences using a neural network trained on peptide-spectrum match (PSM)-derived features. From these calibrated scores, Winnow computes PSM-specific error metrics and an experiment-wide FDR estimate using a novel decoy-free FDR estimator. It supports both zero-shot and dataset-specific calibration, enabling flexible application via direct inference, fine-tuning, or training a custom model. We demonstrate that, when applied to InstaNovo predictions, Winnow's calibrator improves recall at fixed FDR thresholds, and its FDR estimator tracks true error rates when benchmarked against reference proteomes and database search. Winnow ensures accurate FDR control across datasets, helping unlock the full potential of DNS.

Class probabilities predicted by most multiclass classifiers are uncalibrated, often tending towards over-confidence. With neural networks, calibration can be improved by temperature scaling, a method to learn a single corrective multiplicative factor for inputs to the last softmax layer. On non-neural models the existing methods apply binary calibration in a pairwise or one-vs-rest fashion. We propose a natively multiclass calibration method applicable to classifiers from any model class, derived from Dirichlet distributions and generalising the beta calibration method from binary classification. It is easily implemented with neural nets since it is equivalent to log-transforming the uncalibrated probabilities, followed by one linear layer and softmax. Experiments demonstrate improved probabilistic predictions according to multiple measures (confidence-ECE, classwise-ECE, log-loss, Brier score) across a wide range of datasets and classifiers. Parameters of the learned Dirichlet calibration map provide insights to the biases in the uncalibrated model.

We present Three-Phase Transformer (3PT), a residual-stream structural prior for decoder-only Transformers on a standard SwiGLU + RMSNorm + RoPE + GQA backbone. The hidden vector is partitioned into N equally-sized cyclic channels, each maintained by phase-respecting ops: a per-channel RMSNorm, a 2D Givens rotation between attention and FFN that rotates each channel by theta + i*(2*pi/N), and a head-count constraint aligning GQA heads with the partition. The architecture is a self-stabilizing equilibrium between scrambling and re-imposition, not a bolted-on module. The partition carves out a one-dimensional DC subspace orthogonal to the channels, into which we inject a fixed Gabriel's horn profile r(p) = 1/(p+1) as an absolute-position side-channel composing orthogonally with RoPE's relative-position rotation. The canonical N=3 borrows its metaphor from balanced three-phase AC, where three sinusoids 120 degrees apart sum to zero with no anti-correlated pair. At 123M parameters on WikiText-103, 3PT achieves -7.20% perplexity (-2.62% bits-per-byte) over a matched RoPE-Only baseline at +1,536 parameters (0.00124% of total), with 1.93x step-count convergence speedup (1.64x wall-clock). N behaves as a parameter-sharing knob rather than a unique optimum: at 5.5M an N-sweep over {1,2,3,4,6,8,12} is near-monotone with N=1 winning; at 123M a three-seed sweep finds N=3 and N=1 statistically indistinguishable. The load-bearing mechanism is the channel-partitioned residual stream, per-block rotation, per-phase normalization, and horn DC injection. We characterize (a) self-stabilization of the geometry without explicit enforcement, a novel instance of the conservation-law framework for neural networks; (b) a U-shaped depth profile of rotation-angle drift at 12 layers; (c) orthogonal composition with RoPE, attention, and FFN.

Deep learning (DL) has become the dominant approach for medical image segmentation, yet ensuring the reliability and clinical applicability of these models requires addressing key challenges such as annotation variability, calibration, and uncertainty estimation. This is why we created the Calibration and Uncertainty for multiRater Volume Assessment in multiorgan Segmentation (CURVAS), which highlights the critical role of multiple annotators in establishing a more comprehensive ground truth, emphasizing that segmentation is inherently subjective and that leveraging inter-annotator variability is essential for robust model evaluation. Seven teams participated in the challenge, submitting a variety of DL models evaluated using metrics such as Dice Similarity Coefficient (DSC), Expected Calibration Error (ECE), and Continuous Ranked Probability Score (CRPS). By incorporating consensus and dissensus ground truth, we assess how DL models handle uncertainty and whether their confidence estimates align with true segmentation performance. Our findings reinforce the importance of well-calibrated models, as better calibration is strongly correlated with the quality of the results. Furthermore, we demonstrate that segmentation models trained on diverse datasets and enriched with pre-trained knowledge exhibit greater robustness, particularly in cases deviating from standard anatomical structures. Notably, the best-performing models achieved high DSC and well-calibrated uncertainty estimates. This work underscores the need for multi-annotator ground truth, thorough calibration assessments, and uncertainty-aware evaluations to develop trustworthy and clinically reliable DL-based medical image segmentation models.

Operational telemetry can be jointly anomalous while every individual stream stays inside its familiar range. TRACE-C is an auditable strictly-prior rank-calibrated detector for aligned multi-stream telemetry: same-regime rolling median/MAD residuals feed three window channels -- a maximum normalized local sum, a Gaussian copula-form dependence contrast on robust-z residuals, and a worst standardized AR(1) innovation -- whose channel ranks are Fisher-aggregated and ranked against earlier aggregates. We evaluate six Great Britain grid streams with a January-April 2019 fit, July-December 2019 development evidence, and a 2020 hold-out frozen before inspection. TRACE-C ranks Storm Atiyah first among 2019 test windows, but a disclosed channel ablation attributes that rank to the local channel, not the copula-form channel: copula-only ranks Atiyah 59th. The short 9 August frequency event is ranked far lower by the fused detector (143) than by the temporal channel alone (40), and reconstruction baselines rank it first. In 2020 no window is selected, which is consistent with record-rule saturation rather than an uneventful year; the highest-ranked frozen window was later interpreted as Storm Ellen. Three interpretive limits carry throughout. The resulting p-values are selection quantities, not event probabilities. The copula-form channel is not a literal copula density: the method applies no probability-integral or normal-score transform. Empirical rank counts are diagnostics, not coverage or false-discovery proofs. Every table and figure in this paper is generated from committed machine-readable reports.

High-quality training triplets (source-target image pairs with precise editing instructions) are a critical bottleneck for scaling instruction-guided image editing models. Vision-language models (VLMs) are widely used for automated instruction synthesis, but we identify three systematic failure modes in image-pair settings: orientation inconsistency (e.g., left/right confusion), viewpoint ambiguity, and insufficient fine-grained attribute description. Human evaluation shows that over 47% of instructions from strong baseline VLMs contain critical errors unusable for downstream training. We propose EditCaption, a scalable two-stage post-training pipeline for VLM-based instruction synthesis. Stage 1 builds a 100K supervised fine-tuning (SFT) dataset by combining GLM automatic annotation, EditScore-based filtering, and human refinement for spatial, directional, and attribute-level accuracy. Stage 2 collects 10K human preference pairs targeting the three failure modes and applies direct preference optimization (DPO) for alignment beyond SFT alone. On Eval-400, ByteMorph-Bench, and HQ-Edit, fine-tuned Qwen3-VL models outperform open-source baselines; the 235B model reaches 4.712 on Eval-400 (vs. Gemini-3-Pro 4.706, GPT-4.1 4.220, Kimi-K2.5 4.111) and 4.588 on ByteMorph-Bench (vs. Gemini-3-Pro 4.522, GPT-4.1 3.412). Human evaluation shows critical errors falling from 47.75% to 23% and correctness rising from 41.75% to 66%. The work offers a practical path to scalable, human-aligned instruction synthesis for image editing data.

Deep neural networks are increasingly utilized in various machine learning tasks. However, as these models grow in complexity, they often face calibration issues, despite enhanced prediction accuracy. Many studies have endeavored to improve calibration performance through the use of specific loss functions, data preprocessing and training frameworks. Yet, investigations into calibration properties have been somewhat overlooked. Our study leverages the Neural Architecture Search (NAS) search space, offering an exhaustive model architecture space for thorough calibration properties exploration. We specifically create a model calibration dataset. This dataset evaluates 90 bin-based and 12 additional calibration measurements across 117,702 unique neural networks within the widely employed NATS-Bench search space. Our analysis aims to answer several longstanding questions in the field, using our proposed dataset: (i) Can model calibration be generalized across different datasets? (ii) Can robustness be used as a calibration measurement? (iii) How reliable are calibration metrics? (iv) Does a post-hoc calibration method affect all models uniformly? (v) How does calibration interact with accuracy? (vi) What is the impact of bin size on calibration measurement? (vii) Which architectural designs are beneficial for calibration? Additionally, our study bridges an existing gap by exploring calibration within NAS. By providing this dataset, we enable further research into NAS calibration. As far as we are aware, our research represents the first large-scale investigation into calibration properties and the premier study of calibration issues within NAS. The project page can be found at https://www.taolinwei.com/calibration-study

Motivated by the theoretical interest in reconstructing long 3D trajectories of individual birds in large flocks, we developed CoMo, a co-moving camera system of two synchronized high speed cameras coupled with rotational stages, which allow us to dynamically follow the motion of a target flock. With the rotation of the cameras we overcome the limitations of standard static systems that restrict the duration of the collected data to the short interval of time in which targets are in the cameras common field of view, but at the same time we change in time the external parameters of the system, which have then to be calibrated frame-by-frame. We address the calibration of the external parameters measuring the position of the cameras and their three angles of yaw, pitch and roll in the system "home" configuration (rotational stage at an angle equal to 0deg and combining this static information with the time dependent rotation due to the stages. We evaluate the robustness and accuracy of the system by comparing reconstructed and measured 3D distances in what we call 3D tests, which show a relative error of the order of 1%. The novelty of the work presented in this paper is not only on the system itself, but also on the approach we use in the tests, which we show to be a very powerful tool in detecting and fixing calibration inaccuracies and that, for this reason, may be relevant for a broad audience.

Camera calibration is fundamental to reliable geometric perception, yet classical approaches rely on dedicated targets, successful reconstruction, or dense view coverage, which casually captured imagery rarely satisfies. Recent learning-based single-image methods lift these requirements by exploiting visual cues, and extend calibration beyond intrinsics to gravity estimation. Yet in the common multi-view case, they predict each view independently and combine the estimates only afterwards, lacking full use of cross-view consistency. We bridge this gap with CalibAnyView, a framework that unifies single- and sparse multi-view calibration by enforcing that consistency inside the network: a transformer with cross-view attention predicts camera-model-agnostic perspective fields, followed by a multi-view optimization that fuses them into shared intrinsics and per-view gravity directions, covering camera models from pinhole to severely distorted lenses. To support this, we construct a large-scale in-the-wild multi-view video dataset spanning diverse camera models, dynamic scenes, realistic motion trajectories, and heterogeneous lens distortions. Extensive experiments show that CalibAnyView outperforms state-of-the-art methods in both sparse multi-view and single-view settings spanning pinhole to distorted optics.

Human motion forecasters are increasingly accurate and fast, but reliable deployment requires uncertainty estimates that are structured, calibrated, and efficient. Bayesian and ensemble-based uncertainty estimates often require repeated stochastic inference [15, 26], while conformal calibration alone does not provide an epistemic signal or preserve trajectory covariance structure [14, 50]. We introduce SPARC (Single-Pass Adaptive Risk Calibration), a Bayesian-conformal uncertainty layer for motion forecasting. A deterministic MLP backbone predicts the future mean, and a conjugate Bayesian last layer converts time-domain feature leverage into an analytic horizon-wise epistemic scale κ_t(x). This scale inflates a graph-temporal Gaussian covariance without changing its correlation structure, and split conformal calibration produces 95% marginal prediction tubes with finite-sample validity under exchangeability. The key interface is the structured factorization κ_t(x)Σ_{str,t}(x), which injects feature-space epistemic uncertainty into trajectory densities without Monte Carlo sampling. Across nine dataset-protocol blocks and deterministic, multimodal, and calibration baselines, SPARC ranks first on NLL and on the combined MPJPE+NLL criterion while retaining competitive point accuracy and efficient calibrated tubes. Ranking windows by κ separates high-error cases, making the scale usable as a lightweight risk monitor.

Accurate sensor calibration is crucial for autonomous systems, yet its uncertainty quantification remains underexplored. We present the first approach to integrate uncertainty awareness into online extrinsic calibration, combining Monte Carlo Dropout with Conformal Prediction to generate prediction intervals with a guaranteed level of coverage. Our method proposes a framework to enhance existing calibration models with uncertainty quantification, compatible with various network architectures. Validated on KITTI (RGB Camera-LiDAR) and DSEC (Event Camera-LiDAR) datasets, we demonstrate effectiveness across different visual sensor types, measuring performance with adapted metrics to evaluate the efficiency and reliability of the intervals. By providing calibration parameters with quantifiable confidence measures, we offer insights into the reliability of calibration estimates, which can greatly improve the robustness of sensor fusion in dynamic environments and usefully serve the Computer Vision community.

We propose the first reference-based video super-resolution (RefVSR) approach that utilizes reference videos for high-fidelity results. We focus on RefVSR in a triple-camera setting, where we aim at super-resolving a low-resolution ultra-wide video utilizing wide-angle and telephoto videos. We introduce the first RefVSR network that recurrently aligns and propagates temporal reference features fused with features extracted from low-resolution frames. To facilitate the fusion and propagation of temporal reference features, we propose a propagative temporal fusion module. For learning and evaluation of our network, we present the first RefVSR dataset consisting of triplets of ultra-wide, wide-angle, and telephoto videos concurrently taken from triple cameras of a smartphone. We also propose a two-stage training strategy fully utilizing video triplets in the proposed dataset for real-world 4x video super-resolution. We extensively evaluate our method, and the result shows the state-of-the-art performance in 4x super-resolution.

We propose MCGrad, a novel and scalable multicalibration algorithm. Multicalibration - calibration in subgroups of the data - is an important property for the performance of machine learning-based systems. Existing multicalibration methods have thus far received limited traction in industry. We argue that this is because existing methods (1) require such subgroups to be manually specified, which ML practitioners often struggle with, (2) are not scalable, or (3) may harm other notions of model performance such as log loss and Area Under the Precision-Recall Curve (PRAUC). MCGrad does not require explicit specification of protected groups, is scalable, and often improves other ML evaluation metrics instead of harming them. MCGrad has been in production at Meta, and is now part of hundreds of production models. We present results from these deployments as well as results on public datasets. We provide an open source implementation of MCGrad at https://github.com/facebookincubator/MCGrad.

Reconstructing 3D assets from images has long required separate pipelines for geometry reconstruction, material estimation, and illumination recovery, each with distinct limitations and computational overhead. We present ReLi3D, the first unified end-to-end pipeline that simultaneously reconstructs complete 3D geometry, spatially-varying physically-based materials, and environment illumination from sparse multi-view images in under one second. Our key insight is that multi-view constraints can dramatically improve material and illumination disentanglement, a problem that remains fundamentally ill-posed for single-image methods. Key to our approach is the fusion of the multi-view input via a transformer cross-conditioning architecture, followed by a novel unified two-path prediction strategy. The first path predicts the object's structure and appearance, while the second path predicts the environment illumination from image background or object reflections. This, combined with a differentiable Monte Carlo multiple importance sampling renderer, creates an optimal illumination disentanglement training pipeline. In addition, with our mixed domain training protocol, which combines synthetic PBR datasets with real-world RGB captures, we establish generalizable results in geometry, material accuracy, and illumination quality. By unifying previously separate reconstruction tasks into a single feed-forward pass, we enable near-instantaneous generation of complete, relightable 3D assets. Project Page: https://reli3d.jdihlmann.com/

Model calibration aims to align confidence with prediction correctness. The Cross-Entropy (CE) loss is widely used for calibrator training, which enforces the model to increase confidence on the ground truth class. However, we find the CE loss has intrinsic limitations. For example, for a narrow misclassification, a calibrator trained by the CE loss often produces high confidence on the wrongly predicted class (e.g., a test sample is wrongly classified and its softmax score on the ground truth class is around 0.4), which is undesirable. In this paper, we propose a new post-hoc calibration objective derived from the aim of calibration. Intuitively, the proposed objective function asks that the calibrator decrease model confidence on wrongly predicted samples and increase confidence on correctly predicted samples. Because a sample itself has insufficient ability to indicate correctness, we use its transformed versions (e.g., rotated, greyscaled and color-jittered) during calibrator training. Trained on an in-distribution validation set and tested with isolated, individual test samples, our method achieves competitive calibration performance on both in-distribution and out-of-distribution test sets compared with the state of the art. Further, our analysis points out the difference between our method and commonly used objectives such as CE loss and mean square error loss, where the latters sometimes deviates from the calibration aim.

We introduce VideoFlow, a novel optical flow estimation framework for videos. In contrast to previous methods that learn to estimate optical flow from two frames, VideoFlow concurrently estimates bi-directional optical flows for multiple frames that are available in videos by sufficiently exploiting temporal cues. We first propose a TRi-frame Optical Flow (TROF) module that estimates bi-directional optical flows for the center frame in a three-frame manner. The information of the frame triplet is iteratively fused onto the center frame. To extend TROF for handling more frames, we further propose a MOtion Propagation (MOP) module that bridges multiple TROFs and propagates motion features between adjacent TROFs. With the iterative flow estimation refinement, the information fused in individual TROFs can be propagated into the whole sequence via MOP. By effectively exploiting video information, VideoFlow presents extraordinary performance, ranking 1st on all public benchmarks. On the Sintel benchmark, VideoFlow achieves 1.649 and 0.991 average end-point-error (AEPE) on the final and clean passes, a 15.1% and 7.6% error reduction from the best-published results (1.943 and 1.073 from FlowFormer++). On the KITTI-2015 benchmark, VideoFlow achieves an F1-all error of 3.65%, a 19.2% error reduction from the best-published result (4.52% from FlowFormer++). Code is released at https://github.com/XiaoyuShi97/VideoFlow.

Emerging 3D geometric foundation models, such as DUSt3R, offer a promising approach for in-the-wild 3D vision tasks. However, due to the high-dimensional nature of the problem space and scarcity of high-quality 3D data, these pre-trained models still struggle to generalize to many challenging circumstances, such as limited view overlap or low lighting. To address this, we propose LoRA3D, an efficient self-calibration pipeline to specialize the pre-trained models to target scenes using their own multi-view predictions. Taking sparse RGB images as input, we leverage robust optimization techniques to refine multi-view predictions and align them into a global coordinate frame. In particular, we incorporate prediction confidence into the geometric optimization process, automatically re-weighting the confidence to better reflect point estimation accuracy. We use the calibrated confidence to generate high-quality pseudo labels for the calibrating views and use low-rank adaptation (LoRA) to fine-tune the models on the pseudo-labeled data. Our method does not require any external priors or manual labels. It completes the self-calibration process on a single standard GPU within just 5 minutes. Each low-rank adapter requires only 18MB of storage. We evaluated our method on more than 160 scenes from the Replica, TUM and Waymo Open datasets, achieving up to 88% performance improvement on 3D reconstruction, multi-view pose estimation and novel-view rendering.

Reliable multimodal sensor fusion algorithms require accurate spatiotemporal calibration. Recently, targetless calibration techniques based on implicit neural representations have proven to provide precise and robust results. Nevertheless, such methods are inherently slow to train given the high computational overhead caused by the large number of sampled points required for volume rendering. With the recent introduction of 3D Gaussian Splatting as a faster alternative to implicit representation methods, we propose to leverage this new rendering approach to achieve faster multi-sensor calibration. We introduce 3DGS-Calib, a new calibration method that relies on the speed and rendering accuracy of 3D Gaussian Splatting to achieve multimodal spatiotemporal calibration that is accurate, robust, and with a substantial speed-up compared to methods relying on implicit neural representations. We demonstrate the superiority of our proposal with experimental results on sequences from KITTI-360, a widely used driving dataset.

Text-driven video generation has democratized film creation, but camera control in cinematic multi-shot scenarios remains a significant block. Implicit textual prompts lack precision, while explicit trajectory conditioning imposes prohibitive manual overhead and often triggers execution failures in current models. To overcome this bottleneck, we propose a data-centric paradigm shift, positing that aligned (Caption, Trajectory, Video) triplets form an inherent joint distribution that can connect automated plotting and precise execution. Guided by this insight, we present ShotVerse, a "Plan-then-Control" framework that decouples generation into two collaborative agents: a VLM (Vision-Language Model)-based Planner that leverages spatial priors to obtain cinematic, globally aligned trajectories from text, and a Controller that renders these trajectories into multi-shot video content via a camera adapter. Central to our approach is the construction of a data foundation: we design an automated multi-shot camera calibration pipeline aligns disjoint single-shot trajectories into a unified global coordinate system. This facilitates the curation of ShotVerse-Bench, a high-fidelity cinematic dataset with a three-track evaluation protocol that serves as the bedrock for our framework. Extensive experiments demonstrate that ShotVerse effectively bridges the gap between unreliable textual control and labor-intensive manual plotting, achieving superior cinematic aesthetics and generating multi-shot videos that are both camera-accurate and cross-shot consistent.

In addition to generating data and annotations, devising sensible data splitting strategies and evaluation metrics is essential for the creation of a benchmark dataset. This practice ensures consensus on the usage of the data, homogeneous assessment, and uniform comparison of research methods on the dataset. This study focuses on CholecT50, which is a 50 video surgical dataset that formalizes surgical activities as triplets of <instrument, verb, target>. In this paper, we introduce the standard splits for the CholecT50 and CholecT45 datasets and show how they compare with existing use of the dataset. CholecT45 is the first public release of 45 videos of CholecT50 dataset. We also develop a metrics library, ivtmetrics, for model evaluation on surgical triplets. Furthermore, we conduct a benchmark study by reproducing baseline methods in the most predominantly used deep learning frameworks (PyTorch and TensorFlow) to evaluate them using the proposed data splits and metrics and release them publicly to support future research. The proposed data splits and evaluation metrics will enable global tracking of research progress on the dataset and facilitate optimal model selection for further deployment.

With the increasing adoption of vision-language models (VLMs) in critical decision-making systems such as healthcare or autonomous driving, the calibration of their uncertainty estimates becomes paramount. Yet, this dimension has been largely underexplored in the VLM test-time prompt-tuning (TPT) literature, which has predominantly focused on improving their discriminative performance. Recent state-of-the-art advocates for enforcing full orthogonality over pairs of text prompt embeddings to enhance separability, and therefore calibration. Nevertheless, as we theoretically show in this work, the inherent gradients from fully orthogonal constraints will strongly push semantically related classes away, ultimately making the model overconfident. Based on our findings, we propose Semantic Orthogonal Calibration (SoC), a Huber-based regularizer that enforces smooth prototype separation while preserving semantic proximity, thereby improving calibration compared to prior orthogonality-based approaches. Across a comprehensive empirical validation, we demonstrate that SoC consistently improves calibration performance, while also maintaining competitive discriminative capabilities.

The fusion of LiDARs and cameras has been increasingly adopted in autonomous driving for perception tasks. The performance of such fusion-based algorithms largely depends on the accuracy of sensor calibration, which is challenging due to the difficulty of identifying common features across different data modalities. Previously, many calibration methods involved specific targets and/or manual intervention, which has proven to be cumbersome and costly. Learning-based online calibration methods have been proposed, but their performance is barely satisfactory in most cases. These methods usually suffer from issues such as sparse feature maps, unreliable cross-modality association, inaccurate calibration parameter regression, etc. In this paper, to address these issues, we propose CalibFormer, an end-to-end network for automatic LiDAR-camera calibration. We aggregate multiple layers of camera and LiDAR image features to achieve high-resolution representations. A multi-head correlation module is utilized to identify correlations between features more accurately. Lastly, we employ transformer architectures to estimate accurate calibration parameters from the correlation information. Our method achieved a mean translation error of 0.8751 cm and a mean rotation error of 0.0562 ^{circ} on the KITTI dataset, surpassing existing state-of-the-art methods and demonstrating strong robustness, accuracy, and generalization capabilities.

We present Wid3R, a feed-forward neural network for visual geometry reconstruction that supports wide field-of-view camera models. Prior methods typically assume that input images are rectified or captured with pinhole cameras, since both their architectures and training datasets are tailored to perspective images only. These assumptions limit their applicability in real-world scenarios that use fisheye or panoramic cameras and often require careful calibration and undistortion. In contrast, Wid3R is a generalizable multi-view 3D estimation method that can model wide field-of-view camera types. Our approach leverages a ray representation with spherical harmonics and a novel camera model token within the network, enabling distortion-aware 3D reconstruction. Furthermore, Wid3R is the first multi-view foundation model to support feed-forward 3D reconstruction directly from 360 imagery. It demonstrates strong zero-shot robustness and consistently outperforms prior methods, achieving improvements of up to +77.33 on Stanford2D3D.

Despite the widespread deployment of outdoor cameras, their potential for automated analysis remains largely untapped due, in part, to calibration challenges. The absence of precise camera calibration data, including intrinsic and extrinsic parameters, hinders accurate real-world distance measurements from captured videos. To address this, we present a scalable framework that utilizes street-level imagery to reconstruct a metric 3D model, facilitating precise calibration of in-the-wild traffic cameras. Notably, our framework achieves 3D scene reconstruction and accurate localization of over 100 global traffic cameras and is scalable to any camera with sufficient street-level imagery. For evaluation, we introduce a dataset of 20 fully calibrated traffic cameras, demonstrating our method's significant enhancements over existing automatic calibration techniques. Furthermore, we highlight our approach's utility in traffic analysis by extracting insights via 3D vehicle reconstruction and speed measurement, thereby opening up the potential of using outdoor cameras for automated analysis.

Surround-view system (SVS) is widely used in the Advanced Driver Assistance System (ADAS). SVS uses four fisheye lenses to monitor real-time scenes around the vehicle. However, accurate intrinsic and extrinsic parameter estimation is required for the proper functioning of the system. At present, the intrinsic calibration can be pipeline by utilizing checkerboard algorithm, while extrinsic calibration is still immature. Therefore, we proposed a specific calibration pipeline to estimate extrinsic parameters robustly. This scheme takes a driving sequence of four cameras as input. It firstly utilizes lane line to roughly estimate each camera pose. Considering the environmental condition differences in each camera, we separately select strategies from two methods to accurately estimate the extrinsic parameters. To achieve accurate estimates for both front and rear camera, we proposed a method that mutually iterating line detection and pose estimation. As for bilateral camera, we iteratively adjust the camera pose and position by minimizing texture and edge error between ground projections of adjacent cameras. After estimating the extrinsic parameters, the surround-view image can be synthesized by homography-based transformation. The proposed pipeline can robustly estimate the four SVS camera extrinsic parameters in real driving environments. In addition, to evaluate the proposed scheme, we build a surround-view fisheye dataset, which contains 40 videos with 32,000 frames, acquired from different real traffic scenarios. All the frames in each video are manually labeled with lane annotation, with its GT extrinsic parameters. Moreover, this surround-view dataset could be used by other researchers to evaluate their performance. The dataset will be available soon.

Accurate LiDAR-camera calibration is crucial for multi-sensor systems. However, traditional methods often rely on physical targets, which are impractical for real-world deployment. Moreover, even carefully calibrated extrinsics can degrade over time due to sensor drift or external disturbances, necessitating periodic recalibration. To address these challenges, we present a Targetless LiDAR-Camera Calibration (TLC-Calib) that jointly optimizes sensor poses with a neural Gaussian-based scene representation. Reliable LiDAR points are frozen as anchor Gaussians to preserve global structure, while auxiliary Gaussians prevent local overfitting under noisy initialization. Our fully differentiable pipeline with photometric and geometric regularization achieves robust and generalizable calibration, consistently outperforming existing targetless methods on the KITTI-360, Waymo, and Fast-LIVO2 datasets. In addition, it yields more consistent Novel View Synthesis results, reflecting improved extrinsic alignment. The project page is available at: https://www.haebeom.com/tlc-calib-site/.

Network pruning has emerged as a potential solution to make LLMs cheaper to deploy. However, existing LLM pruning approaches universally rely on the C4 dataset as the calibration data for calculating pruning scores, leaving its optimality unexplored. In this study, we evaluate the choice of calibration data on LLM pruning, across a wide range of datasets that are most commonly used in LLM training and evaluation, including four pertaining datasets as well as three categories of downstream tasks encompassing nine datasets. Each downstream dataset is prompted with In-Context Learning (ICL) and Chain-of-Thought (CoT), respectively. Besides the already intriguing observation that the choice of calibration data significantly impacts the performance of pruned LLMs, our results also uncover several subtle and often unexpected findings, summarized as follows: (1) C4 is not the optimal choice for LLM pruning, even among commonly used pre-training datasets; (2) arithmetic datasets, when used as calibration data, performs on par or even better than pre-training datasets; (3) pruning with downstream datasets does not necessarily help the corresponding downstream task, compared to pre-training data; (4) ICL is widely beneficial to all data categories, whereas CoT is only useful on certain tasks. Our findings shed light on the importance of carefully selecting calibration data for LLM pruning and pave the way for more efficient deployment of these powerful models in real-world applications. We release our code at: https://github.com/abx393/llm-pruning-calibration-data.

Camera calibration involves estimating camera parameters to infer geometric features from captured sequences, which is crucial for computer vision and robotics. However, conventional calibration is laborious and requires dedicated collection. Recent efforts show that learning-based solutions have the potential to be used in place of the repeatability works of manual calibrations. Among these solutions, various learning strategies, networks, geometric priors, and datasets have been investigated. In this paper, we provide a comprehensive survey of learning-based camera calibration techniques, by analyzing their strengths and limitations. Our main calibration categories include the standard pinhole camera model, distortion camera model, cross-view model, and cross-sensor model, following the research trend and extended applications. As there is no unified benchmark in this community, we collect a holistic calibration dataset that can serve as a public platform to evaluate the generalization of existing methods. It comprises both synthetic and real-world data, with images and videos captured by different cameras in diverse scenes. Toward the end of this paper, we discuss the challenges and provide further research directions. To our knowledge, this is the first survey for the learning-based camera calibration (spanned 10 years). The summarized methods, datasets, and benchmarks are available and will be regularly updated at https://github.com/KangLiao929/Awesome-Deep-Camera-Calibration.

Sensitivity to staining variation remains a major barrier to deploying computational pathology (CPath) models as hematoxylin and eosin (H&E) staining varies across laboratories, requiring systematic assessment of how this variability affects model prediction. In this work, we developed a three-step protocol for evaluating robustness to H&E staining variation in CPath models. Step 1: Select reference staining conditions, Step 2: Characterize test set staining properties, Step 3: Apply CPath model(s) under simulated reference staining conditions. Here, we first created a new reference staining library based on the PLISM dataset. As an exemplary use case, we applied the protocol to assess the robustness properties of 306 microsatellite instability (MSI) classification models on the unseen SurGen colorectal cancer dataset (n=738), including 300 attention-based multiple instance learning models trained on the TCGA-COAD/READ datasets across three feature extractors (UNI2-h, H-Optimus-1, Virchow2), alongside six public MSI classification models. Classification performance was measured as AUC, and robustness as the min-max AUC range across four simulated staining conditions (low/high H&E intensity, low/high H&E color similarity). Across models and staining conditions, classification performance ranged from AUC 0.769-0.911 (Δ = 0.142). Robustness ranged from 0.007-0.079 (Δ = 0.072), and showed a weak inverse correlation with classification performance (Pearson r=-0.22, 95% CI [-0.34, -0.11]). Thus, we show that the proposed evaluation protocol enables robustness-informed CPath model selection and provides insight into performance shifts across H&E staining conditions, supporting the identification of operational ranges for reliable model deployment. Code is available at https://github.com/CTPLab/staining-robustness-evaluation .

SiFo, a wireless foundation model-based framework, is proposed for low-overhead site-specific channel state information (CSI) feedback. In 3GPP NR, Type-II feedback provides an expressive codebook-based CSI representation, but it requires substantial reference-signal overhead, UE-side search, and feedback. Learning-based site-specific feedback can reduce these online costs while retaining high-quality subspace representation by exploiting deployment-dependent propagation structure. However, existing site-specific designs typically train a dedicated neural network for each new site, which limits scalability when the number of deployments is large. SiFo addresses this scalability issue by pretraining a CSI feedback model across source sites and adapting it to a target site through lightweight calibration. A small set of target-site users reports low-dimensional reference signal received power (RSRP) fingerprints, and their full-CSI-based subspace labels are stored as calibration memory. During online operation, a served user is matched to calibrated users through the same SSB probing and RSRP reporting procedure, so nearby calibration samples provide site-specific subspace guidance without updating model parameters. SiFo therefore transfers common propagation knowledge while retaining local adaptation. Numerical results across ten city scenarios demonstrate that SiFo (i) achieves higher CSI-capture efficiency than separately trained site-specific learning baselines under the same target-site labeled budget, (ii) approaches the high-overhead 3GPP NR Type-II feedback reference using only RSRP measurements collected during online SSB probing, and (iii) converts the high CSI-capture efficiency and low overhead into effective spectral efficiency improvement under limited target-site data.

Although post-training quantization (PTQ) provides an efficient numerical compression scheme for deploying large language models (LLMs) on resource-constrained devices, the representativeness and universality of calibration data remain a core bottleneck in determining the accuracy of quantization parameters. Traditional PTQ methods typically rely on limited samples, making it difficult to capture the activation distribution during the inference phase, leading to biases in quantization parameters. To address this, we propose FAQ (Family-Aware Quantization), a calibration data regeneration framework that leverages prior knowledge from LLMs of the same family to generate high-fidelity calibration samples. Specifically, FAQ first inputs the original calibration samples into a larger LLM from the same family as the target model, regenerating a series of high-fidelity calibration data using a highly consistent knowledge system. Subsequently, this data, carrying Chain-of-Thought reasoning and conforming to the expected activation distribution, undergoes group competition under expert guidance to select the best samples, which are then re-normalized to enhance the effectiveness of standard PTQ. Experiments on multiple model series, including Qwen3-8B, show that FAQ reduces accuracy loss by up to 28.5\% compared to the baseline with original calibration data, demonstrating its powerful potential and contribution.

Single camera 3D pose estimation is an ill-defined problem due to inherent ambiguities from depth, occlusion or keypoint noise. Multi-hypothesis pose estimation accounts for this uncertainty by providing multiple 3D poses consistent with the 2D measurements. Current research has predominantly concentrated on generating multiple hypotheses for single frame static pose estimation. In this study we focus on the new task of multi-hypothesis motion estimation. Motion estimation is not simply pose estimation applied to multiple frames, which would ignore temporal correlation across frames. Instead, it requires distributions which are capable of generating temporally consistent samples, which is significantly more challenging. To this end, we introduce Platypose, a framework that uses a diffusion model pretrained on 3D human motion sequences for zero-shot 3D pose sequence estimation. Platypose outperforms baseline methods on multiple hypotheses for motion estimation. Additionally, Platypose also achieves state-of-the-art calibration and competitive joint error when tested on static poses from Human3.6M, MPI-INF-3DHP and 3DPW. Finally, because it is zero-shot, our method generalizes flexibly to different settings such as multi-camera inference.

Graphical User Interface (GUI) grounding aims to translate natural language instructions into executable screen coordinates, enabling automated GUI interaction. Nevertheless, incorrect grounding can result in costly, hard-to-reverse actions (e.g., erroneous payment approvals), raising concerns about model reliability. In this paper, we introduce SafeGround, an uncertainty-aware framework for GUI grounding models that enables risk-aware predictions through calibrations before testing. SafeGround leverages a distribution-aware uncertainty quantification method to capture the spatial dispersion of stochastic samples from outputs of any given model. Then, through the calibration process, SafeGround derives a test-time decision threshold with statistically guaranteed false discovery rate (FDR) control. We apply SafeGround on multiple GUI grounding models for the challenging ScreenSpot-Pro benchmark. Experimental results show that our uncertainty measure consistently outperforms existing baselines in distinguishing correct from incorrect predictions, while the calibrated threshold reliably enables rigorous risk control and potentials of substantial system-level accuracy improvements. Across multiple GUI grounding models, SafeGround improves system-level accuracy by up to 5.38% percentage points over Gemini-only inference.

Overconfidence and underconfidence in machine learning classifiers is measured by calibration: the degree to which the probabilities predicted for each class match the accuracy of the classifier on that prediction. How one measures calibration remains a challenge: expected calibration error, the most popular metric, has numerous flaws which we outline, and there is no clear empirical understanding of how its choices affect conclusions in practice, and what recommendations there are to counteract its flaws. In this paper, we perform a comprehensive empirical study of choices in calibration measures including measuring all probabilities rather than just the maximum prediction, thresholding probability values, class conditionality, number of bins, bins that are adaptive to the datapoint density, and the norm used to compare accuracies to confidences. To analyze the sensitivity of calibration measures, we study the impact of optimizing directly for each variant with recalibration techniques. Across MNIST, Fashion MNIST, CIFAR-10/100, and ImageNet, we find that conclusions on the rank ordering of recalibration methods is drastically impacted by the choice of calibration measure. We find that conditioning on the class leads to more effective calibration evaluations, and that using the L2 norm rather than the L1 norm improves both optimization for calibration metrics and the rank correlation measuring metric consistency. Adaptive binning schemes lead to more stablity of metric rank ordering when the number of bins vary, and is also recommended. We open source a library for the use of our calibration measures.

Calibrating large-scale camera arrays, such as those in dome-based setups, is time-intensive and typically requires dedicated captures of known patterns. While extrinsics in such arrays are fixed due to the physical setup, intrinsics often vary across sessions due to factors like lens adjustments or temperature changes. In this paper, we propose a dense-feature-driven multi-frame calibration method that refines intrinsics directly from scene data, eliminating the necessity for additional calibration captures. Our approach enhances traditional Structure-from-Motion (SfM) pipelines by introducing an extrinsics regularization term to progressively align estimated extrinsics with ground-truth values, a dense feature reprojection term to reduce keypoint errors by minimizing reprojection loss in the feature space, and an intrinsics variance term for joint optimization across multiple frames. Experiments on the Multiface dataset show that our method achieves nearly the same precision as dedicated calibration processes, and significantly enhances intrinsics and 3D reconstruction accuracy. Fully compatible with existing SfM pipelines, our method provides an efficient and practical plug-and-play solution for large-scale camera setups. Our code is publicly available at: https://github.com/YJJfish/Multi-Cali-Anything

Model merging has emerged as a cost-effective approach for consolidating the capabilities of multiple LLMs without retraining. However, existing merging techniques, largely based on linear parameter arithmetic or optimization, struggle when applied to Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) architectures. We identify a critical failure mode in MoE merging, termed routing breakdown, in which the merged router fails to dispatch tokens to suitable experts. Routing breakdown stems from the sensitivity of the non-linear softmax and discrete Top-k routing mechanisms to parameter perturbations from merging, a sensitivity further amplified by load-balancing constraints imposed during MoE pretraining. Because fine-tuned experts exhibit distinct specializations, even modest misrouting can cause severe performance degradation. To address this issue, we propose Hessian-Aware Router Calibration (HARC), a training-free framework that leverages second-order curvature information to realign the merged router. This approach admits a closed-form solution that can be efficiently solved using a matrix-free conjugate gradient method. Experiments on mathematical reasoning and code generation tasks show that HARC effectively mitigates routing breakdown across diverse MoE merging baselines and leads to substantial performance improvements. Our code is available at https://github.com/huangcb01/HARC.

Recent advances in machine learning have significantly improved prediction accuracy in various applications. However, ensuring the calibration of probabilistic predictions remains a significant challenge. Despite efforts to enhance model calibration, the rigorous statistical evaluation of model calibration remains less explored. In this work, we develop confidence intervals the ell_2 Expected Calibration Error (ECE). We consider top-1-to-k calibration, which includes both the popular notion of confidence calibration as well as full calibration. For a debiased estimator of the ECE, we show asymptotic normality, but with different convergence rates and asymptotic variances for calibrated and miscalibrated models. We develop methods to construct asymptotically valid confidence intervals for the ECE, accounting for this behavior as well as non-negativity. Our theoretical findings are supported through extensive experiments, showing that our methods produce valid confidence intervals with shorter lengths compared to those obtained by resampling-based methods.

This study presents a collection of physical devices and software services that fully automate Raman spectra measurements for liquid samples within a robotic facility. This method is applicable to various fields, with demonstrated efficacy in biotechnology, where Raman spectroscopy monitors substrates, metabolites, and product-related concentrations. Our system specifically measures 50 micro L samples using a liquid handling robot capable of taking 8 samples simultaneously. We record multiple Raman spectra for 10s each. Furthermore, our system takes around 20s for sample handling, cleaning, and preparation of the next measurement. All spectra and metadata are stored in a database, and we use a machine learning model to estimate concentrations from the spectra. This automated approach enables gathering spectra for various applications under uniform conditions in high-throughput fermentation processes, calibration procedures, and offline evaluations. This allows data to be combined to train sophisticated machine learning models with improved generalization. Consequently, we can develop accurate models more quickly for new applications by reusing data from prior applications, thereby reducing the need for extensive calibration data.

Generating photorealistic novel views from unposed images requires both 3D geometric understanding and the ability to synthesize unseen content. A natural strategy combines feed-forward 3DGS reconstruction with multi-view diffusion. Yet prior pipelines extract at most one signal from the reconstruction, either pixel rendering or learned features, while none exploits per-Gaussian visibility for occlusion-aware reference selection. This *information disconnect* leaves renderable geometry, visibility cues, and learned features unused. SplatGuide closes this disconnect by reusing a single 3DGS scene across three complementary roles. Rendered images provide pixel-aligned geometric conditioning. Per-Gaussian source-view indices are rendered into a target-view voting map for occlusion-aware reference selection. Reconstruction tokens supply feature-level guidance via cross-attention. All three signals derive from the same reconstruction forward pass. Across RealEstate10K, DL3DV, Tanks-and-Temples, and Mip-NeRF 360, SplatGuide achieves state-of-the-art pose-free novel view synthesis. On RealEstate10K, with a moderate number of input views, it surpasses the ground-truth-pose baseline.

Consider the problem of finding the best matching in a weighted graph where we only have access to predictions of the actual stochastic weights, based on an underlying context. If the predictor is the Bayes optimal one, then computing the best matching based on the predicted weights is optimal. However, in practice, this perfect information scenario is not realistic. Given an imperfect predictor, a suboptimal decision rule may compensate for the induced error and thus outperform the standard optimal rule. In this paper, we propose multicalibration as a way to address this problem. This fairness notion requires a predictor to be unbiased on each element of a family of protected sets of contexts. Given a class of matching algorithms mathcal C and any predictor γ of the edge-weights, we show how to construct a specific multicalibrated predictor hat γ, with the following property. Picking the best matching based on the output of hat γ is competitive with the best decision rule in mathcal C applied onto the original predictor γ. We complement this result by providing sample complexity bounds.

Apollo did not reach the Moon merely because its engineers could solve difficult equations. It succeeded by turning a distant ambition into a mission architecture of explicit objectives, simulation, verification, and repeated correction. AI now faces a similar transition: frontier models can solve difficult tasks once the problem, tools, and success criteria are specified, yet consequential real-world challenges rarely arrive in an executable or verifiable form. We introduce Apodex Discovery, a framework for building and evaluating discoverative AI through the heavy-duty solver, a system comprising a foundation model, harness, tools, and control policies that pursues extended, stateful, verifiable investigations. It has three core components. First, a problem-scouting process surveyed 561 industries across 16 sectors, assembled 423 high-value real-world problems, and selected 20 for the initial release. Second, a common environment-task-episode abstraction provides data, tools, constraints, feedback, trajectory recording, and verification of intermediate artifacts and final submissions. Third, HDS6 evaluates Tools, Repair, Alternatives, Coherence, Evidence, and Scope independently of final-task success. In AAV capsid design, Apodex surpassed the published state of the art by 7% across viability, tropism, structure prediction, and generative design. In drug repurposing and reformulation, a task-specific biomedical environment improved the mean normalized prediction score of GPT-5.5 and GPT-5.6-sol by 2.5 and 7.6 points over the same closed-book backbone. Controlled ablations show that the fixed TRACES episode interface enables attribution of performance differences to specific solver components. Apodex Discovery moves AI evaluation beyond predefined benchmarks toward verifiable investigations aimed at genuine discovery.

Given the importance of getting calibrated predictions and reliable uncertainty estimations, various post-hoc calibration methods have been developed for neural networks on standard multi-class classification tasks. However, these methods are not well suited for calibrating graph neural networks (GNNs), which presents unique challenges such as accounting for the graph structure and the graph-induced correlations between the nodes. In this work, we conduct a systematic study on the calibration qualities of GNN node predictions. In particular, we identify five factors which influence the calibration of GNNs: general under-confident tendency, diversity of nodewise predictive distributions, distance to training nodes, relative confidence level, and neighborhood similarity. Furthermore, based on the insights from this study, we design a novel calibration method named Graph Attention Temperature Scaling (GATS), which is tailored for calibrating graph neural networks. GATS incorporates designs that address all the identified influential factors and produces nodewise temperature scaling using an attention-based architecture. GATS is accuracy-preserving, data-efficient, and expressive at the same time. Our experiments empirically verify the effectiveness of GATS, demonstrating that it can consistently achieve state-of-the-art calibration results on various graph datasets for different GNN backbones.

Non-invasive continuous blood pressure (BP) monitoring using photoplethysmography (PPG) is a promising alternative to cuff-based measurements. However, existing PPG-based BP estimation studies predominantly rely on aggregated performance metrics (e.g., mean absolute error) computed over entire evaluation intervals, which can obscure model failures during rapid BP fluctuations and limit clinical relevance. In this work, we propose a fluctuation-aware evaluation framework for PPG-based BP estimation based on time-series change point detection. Instead of heuristic BP thresholding (e.g., ΔBP > 10mmHg), we identify BP change points by capturing abrupt distributional shifts in BP trajectories and evaluate estimation performance specifically during these fluctuation periods. Our analysis shows that several state-of-the-art models exhibit substantial performance degradation around BP change points, and that periodic test-time calibration is insufficient to handle such dynamic BP variations. To address this limitation, we introduce a targeted re-calibration framework triggered by detected BP change points, improving robustness without modifying model architectures. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first systematic evaluation of PPG-based BP estimation from a BP change point perspective, highlighting the importance of fluctuation-aware evaluation and calibration for real-world continuous BP monitoring.

Calibration measures and reliability diagrams are two fundamental tools for measuring and interpreting the calibration of probabilistic predictors. Calibration measures quantify the degree of miscalibration, and reliability diagrams visualize the structure of this miscalibration. However, the most common constructions of reliability diagrams and calibration measures -- binning and ECE -- both suffer from well-known flaws (e.g. discontinuity). We show that a simple modification fixes both constructions: first smooth the observations using an RBF kernel, then compute the Expected Calibration Error (ECE) of this smoothed function. We prove that with a careful choice of bandwidth, this method yields a calibration measure that is well-behaved in the sense of (B{\l}asiok, Gopalan, Hu, and Nakkiran 2023a) -- a consistent calibration measure. We call this measure the SmoothECE. Moreover, the reliability diagram obtained from this smoothed function visually encodes the SmoothECE, just as binned reliability diagrams encode the BinnedECE. We also provide a Python package with simple, hyperparameter-free methods for measuring and plotting calibration: `pip install relplot\`.

Conformal prediction (CP) provides distribution-free prediction intervals for fixed forecasters, but its standard calibration procedure is often inefficient for time series data, where forecast errors are temporally dependent and change across time and operating conditions. Recent time series CP methods improve local calibration using recent, weighted, or localized residuals. Yet local calibration can remain indirect, since broad residual weighting or additional adaptation procedures may dilute the evidence most relevant to the current prediction. This motivates a simple retrieval and correction strategy that selects similar past residuals as local evidence and then corrects the coverage error left by retrieval. In this paper, we propose Retrieval--Corrected Conformal Prediction (RCCP), a retrieval-augmented calibration method for time series prediction intervals. RCCP builds an asymmetric interval from retrieved one-sided residuals and calibrates its normalized retrieval error with a scalar conformal correction. Thus, retrieval provides local residual evidence, while conformal correction determines the final scale needed for coverage. We provide a coverage-gap bound based on the stability of the normalized retrieval error distribution. Across standard benchmarks and backbone forecasters, RCCP attains the target coverage in every setting and achieves the lowest Winkler scores, with fewer severe misses. RCCP also achieves low calibration and inference overhead, showing that retrieval-corrected calibration is an effective and scalable approach to uncertainty quantification in time series forecasting. Code is available at https://github.com/jinsaaang/rccp.

LLM-as-judge evaluation has become the de facto standard for scaling model assessment, but the practice is statistically unsound: uncalibrated scores can invert preferences, naive confidence intervals on uncalibrated scores achieve near-0% coverage, and importance-weighted estimators collapse under limited overlap despite high effective sample size (ESS). We introduce Causal Judge Evaluation (CJE), a framework that fixes all three failures. On n=4,961 Chatbot Arena prompts (after filtering from 5k), CJE achieves 99% pairwise ranking accuracy at full sample size (94% averaged across configurations), matching oracle quality, at 14x lower cost (for ranking 5 policies) by calibrating a 16x cheaper judge on just 5% oracle labels (~250 labels). CJE combines three components: (i) AutoCal-R, reward calibration via mean-preserving isotonic regression; (ii) SIMCal-W, weight stabilization via stacking of S-monotone candidates; and (iii) Oracle-Uncertainty Aware (OUA) inference that propagates calibration uncertainty into confidence intervals. We formalize the Coverage-Limited Efficiency (CLE) diagnostic, which explains why IPS-style estimators fail even when ESS exceeds 90%: the logger rarely visits regions where target policies concentrate. Key findings: SNIPS inverts rankings even with reward calibration (38% pairwise, negative Kendall's tau) due to weight instability; calibrated IPS remains near-random (47%) despite weight stabilization, consistent with CLE; OUA improves coverage from near-0% to ~86% (Direct) and ~96% (stacked-DR), where naive intervals severely under-cover.

Graph-augmented retrieval combines dense similarity with graph-based relevance signals such as Personalized PageRank (PPR), but these scores have different distributions and are not directly comparable. We study this as a score calibration problem for heterogeneous retrieval fusion in multi-hop question answering. Our method, PhaseGraph, maps vector and graph scores to a common unit-free scale using percentile-rank normalization (PIT) before fusion, enabling stable combination without discarding magnitude information. Across MuSiQue and 2WikiMultiHopQA, calibrated fusion improves held-out last-hop retrieval on HippoRAG2-style benchmarks: LastHop@5 increases from 75.1% to 76.5% on MuSiQue (8W/1L, p=0.039) and from 51.7% to 53.6% on 2WikiMultiHopQA (11W/2L, p=0.023), both on independent held-out test splits. A theory-driven ablation shows that percentile-based calibration is directionally more robust than min-max normalization on both tune and test splits (1W/6L, p=0.125), while Boltzmann weighting performs comparably to linear fusion after calibration (0W/3L, p=0.25). These results suggest that score commensuration is a robust design choice, and the exact post-calibration operator appears to matter less on these benchmarks.

We introduce Leap+Verify, a framework that applies speculative execution -- predicting future model weights and validating predictions before acceptance -- to accelerate neural network training. Inspired by speculative decoding in language model inference and by the Automatically Scalable Computation (ASC) architecture for program execution, Leap+Verify decomposes training into three dynamically detected regimes (chaotic, transition, stable) using activation-space cosine similarity as a real-time Lyapunov proxy signal. Within each regime, analytic weight predictors (momentum, linear, quadratic extrapolation) attempt to forecast model parameters K training steps ahead; predictions are accepted only when validated against a held-out loss criterion. We evaluate Leap+Verify on GPT-2 124M and Qwen 2.5-1.5B trained on WikiText-103 across five random seeds, sweeping prediction depth K in {5, 10, 25, 50, 75, 100}. Momentum-based prediction (Adam moment extrapolation) fails catastrophically at both scales, with predicted losses exceeding actuals by 100-10,000x -- a universal norm explosion in optimizer-state extrapolation. Finite-difference predictors (linear, quadratic) succeed where momentum fails: at 124M, they achieve 24% strict acceptance at K=5 in stable regimes; at 1.5B, they achieve 37% strict acceptance in transition regimes. The scale-dependent finding is in regime distribution: GPT-2 124M spends 34% of training in stable regime, while Qwen 1.5B spends 64% in chaotic regime and reaches stable in only 0-2 of 40 checkpoints. Larger models are more predictable when predictable, but less often predictable -- the practical bottleneck shifts from predictor accuracy to regime availability. Cross-seed results are highly consistent (less than 1% validation loss variance), and the three-regime framework produces identical phase boundaries (plus or minus 50 steps) across seeds.

Markerless multiview motion capture is often constrained by the need for precise camera calibration, limiting accessibility for non-experts and in-the-wild captures. Existing calibration-free approaches mitigate this requirement but suffer from high computational cost and reduced reconstruction accuracy. We present Kineo, a fully automatic, calibration-free pipeline for markerless motion capture from videos captured by unsynchronized, uncalibrated, consumer-grade RGB cameras. Kineo leverages 2D keypoints from off-the-shelf detectors to simultaneously calibrate cameras, including Brown-Conrady distortion coefficients, and reconstruct 3D keypoints and dense scene point maps at metric scale. A confidence-driven spatio-temporal keypoint sampling strategy, combined with graph-based global optimization, ensures robust calibration at a fixed computational cost independent of sequence length. We further introduce a pairwise reprojection consensus score to quantify 3D reconstruction reliability for downstream tasks. Evaluations on EgoHumans and Human3.6M demonstrate substantial improvements over prior calibration-free methods. Compared to previous state-of-the-art approaches, Kineo reduces camera translation error by approximately 83-85%, camera angular error by 86-92%, and world mean-per-joint error (W-MPJPE) by 83-91%. Kineo is also efficient in real-world scenarios, processing multi-view sequences faster than their duration in specific configuration (e.g., 36min to process 1h20min of footage). The full pipeline and evaluation code are openly released to promote reproducibility and practical adoption at https://liris-xr.github.io/kineo/.

Accurate 3D crop monitoring underpins data-driven precision agriculture by enabling field-scale analysis of plant structure, growth dynamics, and management response. Modern 3D reconstruction methods perform strongly on generic benchmarks, but rendered appearance may not translate into metrically and agronomically useful geometry in crop fields. We introduce UAV3DCrop, a public benchmark of repeated multi-angle unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) crop surveys. It contains 88,830 RGB images at 5280 times 3956 pixels, with a ground sampling distance of 3.6-5.8 mm, from 91 scenes spanning corn, soybean, wheat, and oat. Track A evaluates seven scene-optimized methods -- Neural Radiance Field (NeRF) and 3D Gaussian Splatting (3DGS) variants -- on held-out views, photogrammetry-referenced depth, and canopy-height recovery. Track B tests four pretrained feed-forward models on zero-shot camera-pose and geometry estimation. The scene-optimized methods rank differently across the three targets: Splatfacto-big leads appearance, whereas Scaffold-GS leads depth and is statistically tied with Splatfacto for canopy height. Among feed-forward models, MapAnything leads on seven of the eight metrics, while the remaining models vary more across crops and fail severely on absolute scale in a way that alignment conceals. Repeated acquisitions reveal further sensitivities that differ by output type and by model, associated with position within the acquisition sequence and with tie-point multiplicity. Current 3D reconstruction methods are therefore not yet interchangeable for agronomic use: no single method wins on appearance, geometry, and canopy height at once, and only one of four feed-forward models recovers usable metric scale. The dataset is publicly available at https://link-dev.github.io/UAV3DCrop/

Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly applied to structured clinical data, yet whether they can recognize the limits of their own knowledge on such tasks remains unexplored. We study this question through the lens of cross-model attribution divergence with the goal of reducing epistemic uncertainty for structured tasks, comparing Qwen 2.5 7B and XGBoost on a prediction task via attribution divergence analysis. We report four findings. First, LLM verbalized confidence is epistemically vacuous, it outputs a near-constant (0.856-0.937) regardless of whether accuracy is 49% or 75.3%, tracking prompt format rather than prediction quality. Second, the LLM exhibits an inverse difficulty effect: accuracy drops to 64.8% when XGBoost is 99% correct, but matches XGBoost (73.8% vs. 73.1%) when it is moderately uncertain. Third, few-shot examples and SHAP-derived feature evidence are orthogonal, super-additive interventions: they reduce the Attribution Disagreement Score (ADS) from 1.54 to 0.38 and improve accuracy from 49% to 75.3% without training. Fourth, a cross-model calibrator that determined LLM reliability using attribution divergence signals reduces expected calibration error from 0.254 to 0.080, replacing uninformative verbalized confidence with patient-specific reliability estimates, without accessing model internals or requiring repeated inference. We frame these findings as a cold start problem for LLMs on structured data and outline a path toward genuine epistemic self-awareness.

Despite the success of deep learning, training deep networks in biologically plausible and hardware-efficient ways remains an open challenge. Feedback alignment (FA) methods address this by replacing backpropagation's symmetric backward weights with fixed random matrices, but their effectiveness depends critically on whether they can be accurately evaluated. The standard evaluation relies on two quantities: task accuracy and cosine similarity between the method's credit signal and the backpropagation gradient. We show that this reporting pair is insufficient by identifying two independent failure modes, both silent under current reporting: (1) measurement degeneracy, where the BP reference gradient collapses to the numerical floor in terminal-LayerNorm residual architectures, rendering cosine uninterpretable; and (2) aggregation collapse, where the aggregate cosine masks layerwise heterogeneity that concentrates credit at one end of the network. To address these limitations, we propose a diagnostic evaluation protocol based on three checks -- scale stability, reference validity, and depth utility -- together with per-layer rather than aggregate cosine reporting. Across multiple architectures and methods, the standard reporting pair gives no signal of failure in any audited case, while our protocol identifies all failures with wide calibration margins. The two failure modes are causally independent: a per-block scale penalty alleviates Mode 1 (residual scale explosion driving reference collapse) without affecting Mode 2 (cosine ranking that contradicts every functional metric we measured). Identifying these silent failures prevents researchers from building on non-functional credit assignment and provides actionable guidance for developing FA methods that genuinely train deep layers.

Reference-guided generation (e.g., object compositing, customization) has progressed rapidly, yet current pipelines share a fundamental limitation: the object-centric high-resolution reference image (HRRI) provided by users is downsampled to a fixed low-resolution (LR) before being fed into the model, so the fine-grained details are discarded before the output is even produced. In addition, the generation step then introduces its own artifacts (e.g., identity distortion) on top of this loss. Existing reference-guided generated content refinement (RefGCR) methods can correct some of these artifacts but still operate in the LR domain; reference-guided super-resolution (RefSR) methods recover resolution but assume natural-image degradations and ignore the artifact distribution of generative pipelines. To address both gaps in a single formulation, we introduce a new task: reference-guided generated content super-resolution-refinement (RefGC-SR^2), where the original HRRI is reused at the post-processing stage to recover lost details, refine generative artifacts, and upscale the output simultaneously. We construct the first real-world triplet data generation pipeline for this RefGC-SR^2 task, training a diptych-conditioned generator to synthesize paired low-quality anchors that public pretrained models cannot provide. We further present a frequency-aware diffusion transformer model for RefGC-SR^2 that selectively injects fine details from the HRRI while removing generative artifacts. Extensive experiments demonstrate that our RefGC-SR^2 model successfully (i) refines the object identity faithfully with respect to the reference, and (ii) recovers high-resolution details, so that the final result is significantly higher quality and practically more usable compared to existing RefGCR and RefSR baselines.

Quantized checkpoints are often screened first with quality metrics and only later, if at all, with direct safety tests. This paper audits that shortcut on a matched 51-row matrix spanning 6 models, 4 families, a 7-level GGUF ladder, and AWQ/GPTQ INT4 checkpoints. In this matrix the shortcut fails: all 36 quality-safety pairings split direction across models, and 9 hidden-danger rows plus 1 near-hidden-danger row show quality stable or improved while refusal falls by 12-68 percentage points. Seven of the 11 AWQ/GPTQ rows are hidden-danger. A four-probe mechanistic follow-up over the 17 Hugging Face-backed FP16/AWQ/GPTQ cells does not rescue it: entropy, refusal-direction, and calibration probes are weak or null separators of dangerous rows, and although probe-identified safety-associated neurons absorb 1.39times more quantization error overall (p < 5 times 10^{-7}), the effect is not regime-specific. Claude Sonnet 4 relabels 11,470 items in a predefined stratified set, agrees with the primary gemma3:12b judge on 89.9\% of rows (κ= 0.873, 95\% CI [0.866, 0.881]), and changes 0/10 hidden-danger cells. A calibrated study-internal behavioral screen -- the Refusal Template Stability Index (RTSI), built from four refusal-template drift features and calibrated on this matrix -- routes 10/10 hidden- or near-hidden-danger rows to direct safety testing (Wilson 95\% CI lower bound 0.72) while leaving 23 of 45 non-baseline rows in a low-risk bucket under both in-sample scoring and row-level leave-one-out validation; on the same matrix, the best single-feature baselines (unique-prefix-rate-delta, raw refusal-rate delta) recover 9/10 and 8/10 respectively at matched bucket size, and cross-stack transfer requires recalibration. For the quantized checkpoints, model families, and safety outcomes studied here, retained quality cannot waive direct safety evaluation.

Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly deployed and democratized on edge devices. To improve the efficiency of on-device deployment, small language models (SLMs) are often adopted due to their efficient decoding latency and reduced energy consumption. However, these SLMs often generate inaccurate responses when handling complex queries. One promising solution is uncertainty-based SLM routing, offloading high-stakes queries to stronger LLMs when resulting in low-confidence responses on SLM. This follows the principle of "If you lack confidence, seek stronger support" to enhance reliability. Relying on more powerful LLMs is yet effective but increases invocation costs. Therefore, striking a routing balance between efficiency and efficacy remains a critical challenge. Additionally, efficiently generalizing the routing strategy to new datasets remains under-explored. In this paper, we conduct a comprehensive investigation into benchmarking and generalization of uncertainty-driven routing strategies from SLMs to LLMs over 1500+ settings. Our findings highlight: First, uncertainty-correctness alignment in different uncertainty quantification (UQ) methods significantly impacts routing performance. Second, uncertainty distributions depend more on both the specific SLM and the chosen UQ method, rather than downstream data. Building on the insight, we propose a calibration data construction instruction pipeline and open-source a constructed hold-out set to enhance routing generalization on new downstream scenarios. The experimental results indicate calibration data effectively bootstraps routing performance without any new data.

When a real-world scene is captured by a smartphone camera and viewed on its screen, the displayed image often differs noticeably from the original scene in color, brightness, and contrast. This gap persists despite substantial advances in both modern cameras and displays. A key reason is that most pipelines factor the high-dimensional capture-to-display process into two separately calibrated camera and display stages, and then connect them through low-dimensional color transforms, leading to information bottlenecks and inevitable error accumulation. To address this systemic challenge, we propose Color Pass-Through, an end-to-end learned framework that operates directly on captured images. Our key insight is to treat the camera and display as a coupled system rather than calibrating them in isolation. Coupling the camera and display yields two practical advantages: (1) it brings the entire real-world scenes to the display via end-to-end optimization, and (2) it allows efficient one-step calibration for each distinct observer via complete capture-to-display path. We validate Color Pass-Through using both digital and human observers. Compared with representative baselines, our method achieves an average gain of +2.0 points on a 5-point user study and more than 2x improvement on quantitative metrics, demonstrating improved reproduction of the perceived color of the original scene.

Retrosynthetic planning aims to devise a complete multi-step synthetic route from starting materials to a target molecule. Current strategies use a decoupled approach of single-step retrosynthesis models and search algorithms, taking only the product as the input to predict the reactants for each planning step and ignoring valuable context information along the synthetic route. In this work, we propose a novel framework that utilizes context information for improved retrosynthetic planning. We view synthetic routes as reaction graphs and propose to incorporate context through three principled steps: encode molecules into embeddings, aggregate information over routes, and readout to predict reactants. Our approach is the first attempt to utilize in-context learning for retrosynthesis prediction in retrosynthetic planning. The entire framework can be efficiently optimized in an end-to-end fashion and produce more practical and accurate predictions. Comprehensive experiments demonstrate that by fusing in the context information over routes, our model significantly improves the performance of retrosynthetic planning over baselines that are not context-aware, especially for long synthetic routes. Code is available at https://github.com/SongtaoLiu0823/FusionRetro.

Reliable confidence estimates are essential in semantic segmentation, especially in safety-critical settings where overconfident errors can mislead downstream decisions. Yet modern segmentation models often remain miscalibrated. Post-hoc calibration offers a practical way to correct confidence estimates without retraining the segmentation model, but its use in dense prediction raises structural issues that are often overlooked. We study two such issues. First, adding a constant to all logits leaves the softmax probabilities unchanged, but several standard calibrators can still depend on this arbitrary offset. As a result, two logit representations encoding the same predictive distribution may yield different calibrated probabilities. We define translation-invariant (TI) calibrators as those whose outputs are unchanged under such shifts, characterize which common calibrators satisfy this property, and construct TI counterparts of shift-sensitive calibrators to isolate the effect of removing representation dependence. Second, post-hoc calibration is typically fitted by minimizing a likelihood-based objective, whereas segmentation models are trained with task-specific metrics such as Dice. This mismatch can cause calibration to alter class orderings and degrade the deployed segmentation map. We study decision-preserving calibration under argmax- and order-preservation constraints. Since enforcing these constraints collapses affine softmax calibrators to temperature scaling, we introduce class-conditional affine calibrators that can be made argmax- or order-preserving while retaining greater expressivity, allowing us to quantify the calibration-segmentation trade-off induced by decision preservation. Across natural-image and medical segmentation benchmarks, and under corruption-based covariate shift, matched comparisons show that TI variants generally improve calibration metrics, while decision-preserving variants prevent segmentation degradation and retain strong calibration performance. These results provide practical design principles for well-defined post-hoc calibration pipelines in semantic segmentation.

Predicting multiple heterogeneous biological and medical targets is a challenge for traditional deep learning models. In contrast to single-task learning, in which a separate model is trained for each target, multi-task learning (MTL) optimizes a single model to predict multiple related targets simultaneously. To address this challenge, we propose the Multi-gate Mixture-of-Experts with Exclusivity (MMoEEx). Our work aims to tackle the heterogeneous MTL setting, in which the same model optimizes multiple tasks with different characteristics. Such a scenario can overwhelm current MTL approaches due to the challenges in balancing shared and task-specific representations and the need to optimize tasks with competing optimization paths. Our method makes two key contributions: first, we introduce an approach to induce more diversity among experts, thus creating representations more suitable for highly imbalanced and heterogenous MTL learning; second, we adopt a two-step optimization [6, 11] approach to balancing the tasks at the gradient level. We validate our method on three MTL benchmark datasets, including Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care (MIMIC-III) and PubChem BioAssay (PCBA).

Computational sensing strategies often suffer from calibration errors in the physical implementation of their ideal sensing models. Such uncertainties are typically addressed by using multiple, accurately chosen training signals to recover the missing information on the sensing model, an approach that can be resource-consuming and cumbersome. Conversely, blind calibration does not employ any training signal, but corresponds to a bilinear inverse problem whose algorithmic solution is an open issue. We here address blind calibration as a non-convex problem for linear random sensing models, in which we aim to recover an unknown signal from its projections on sub-Gaussian random vectors, each subject to an unknown positive multiplicative factor (or gain). To solve this optimisation problem we resort to projected gradient descent starting from a suitable, carefully chosen initialisation point. An analysis of this algorithm allows us to show that it converges to the exact solution provided a sample complexity requirement is met, i.e., relating convergence to the amount of information collected during the sensing process. Interestingly, we show that this requirement grows linearly (up to log factors) in the number of unknowns of the problem. This sample complexity is found both in absence of prior information, as well as when subspace priors are available for both the signal and gains, allowing a further reduction of the number of observations required for our recovery guarantees to hold. Moreover, in the presence of noise we show how our descent algorithm yields a solution whose accuracy degrades gracefully with the amount of noise affecting the measurements. Finally, we present some numerical experiments in an imaging context, where our algorithm allows for a simple solution to blind calibration of the gains in a sensor array.

Recent machine learning papers often report 1-2 percentage point improvements from a single run on a benchmark. These gains are highly sensitive to random seeds, data ordering, and implementation details, yet are rarely accompanied by uncertainty estimates or significance tests. It is therefore unclear when a reported +1-2% reflects a real algorithmic advance versus noise. We revisit this problem under realistic compute budgets, where only a few runs are affordable. We propose a simple, PC-friendly evaluation protocol based on paired multi-seed runs, bias-corrected and accelerated (BCa) bootstrap confidence intervals, and a sign-flip permutation test on per-seed deltas. The protocol is intentionally conservative and is meant as a guardrail against over-claiming. We instantiate it on CIFAR-10, CIFAR-10N, and AG News using synthetic no-improvement, small-gain, and medium-gain scenarios. Single runs and unpaired t-tests often suggest significant gains for 0.6-2.0 point improvements, especially on text. With only three seeds, our paired protocol never declares significance in these settings. We argue that such conservative evaluation is a safer default for small gains under tight budgets.

Reliable usage of object detectors require them to be calibrated -- a crucial problem that requires careful attention. Recent approaches towards this involve (1) designing new loss functions to obtain calibrated detectors by training them from scratch, and (2) post-hoc Temperature Scaling (TS) that learns to scale the likelihood of a trained detector to output calibrated predictions. These approaches are then evaluated based on a combination of Detection Expected Calibration Error (D-ECE) and Average Precision. In this work, via extensive analysis and insights, we highlight that these recent evaluation frameworks, evaluation metrics, and the use of TS have notable drawbacks leading to incorrect conclusions. As a step towards fixing these issues, we propose a principled evaluation framework to jointly measure calibration and accuracy of object detectors. We also tailor efficient and easy-to-use post-hoc calibration approaches such as Platt Scaling and Isotonic Regression specifically for object detection task. Contrary to the common notion, our experiments show that once designed and evaluated properly, post-hoc calibrators, which are extremely cheap to build and use, are much more powerful and effective than the recent train-time calibration methods. To illustrate, D-DETR with our post-hoc Isotonic Regression calibrator outperforms the recent train-time state-of-the-art calibration method Cal-DETR by more than 7 D-ECE on the COCO dataset. Additionally, we propose improved versions of the recently proposed Localization-aware ECE and show the efficacy of our method on these metrics as well. Code is available at: https://github.com/fiveai/detection_calibration.

ReRound (Reconstructive Rounding) is a post-training quantization method that addresses the midpoint ambiguity inherent in standard round-to-nearest (RTN) schemes when quantizing weights near the centers of quantization intervals. Starting from a pretrained LLM, ReRound trains a conditional diffusion model to produce continuous reconstructions of low-bit weights for the LLM. These reconstructed weights act as a guidance signal to disambiguate the rounding direction of weights located close to interval midpoints. To integrate this reconstruction-guided rounding with conventional RTN, ReRound introduces a tolerance metric measuring how far the quantized weight (not the final quantized integer) is away from the midpoint: quantized weights within a tolerance region around midpoints are quantized using diffusion-based reconstructions, whereas weights closer to quantization boundaries are quantized with RTN. By sweeping the tolerance parameter, ReRound generates multiple candidate quantized integer weight matrices and selects the de-quantized weight matrix candidate whose leading singular values most closely match those of the original full-precision weights. This selected candidate determines the tolerance parameter ReRound uses. ReRound is particularly effective for smaller LLMs. Across a range of such models, it consistently outperforms standard RTN for 3-bit and 4-bit weight quantization. ReRound achieves superior accuracy compared to an extensive set of calibration-free methods, remains competitive with calibration-dependent approaches, and operates entirely offline, introducing no additional overhead during low-bit inference. The ReRound strategy represents a new approach for low-bit quantization. The method applies to AI models beyond LLMs. This paper focuses on its applications to small LLMs.

Confidence calibration is central to providing accurate and interpretable uncertainty estimates, especially under safety-critical scenarios. However, we find that existing calibration algorithms often overlook the issue of *proximity bias*, a phenomenon where models tend to be more overconfident in low proximity data (i.e., data lying in the sparse region of the data distribution) compared to high proximity samples, and thus suffer from inconsistent miscalibration across different proximity samples. We examine the problem over 504 pretrained ImageNet models and observe that: 1) Proximity bias exists across a wide variety of model architectures and sizes; 2) Transformer-based models are relatively more susceptible to proximity bias than CNN-based models; 3) Proximity bias persists even after performing popular calibration algorithms like temperature scaling; 4) Models tend to overfit more heavily on low proximity samples than on high proximity samples. Motivated by the empirical findings, we propose ProCal, a plug-and-play algorithm with a theoretical guarantee to adjust sample confidence based on proximity. To further quantify the effectiveness of calibration algorithms in mitigating proximity bias, we introduce proximity-informed expected calibration error (PIECE) with theoretical analysis. We show that ProCal is effective in addressing proximity bias and improving calibration on balanced, long-tail, and distribution-shift settings under four metrics over various model architectures. We believe our findings on proximity bias will guide the development of *fairer and better-calibrated* models, contributing to the broader pursuit of trustworthy AI. Our code is available at: https://github.com/MiaoXiong2320/ProximityBias-Calibration.

Scientific progress depends on sequences of enabling contributions, yet existing AI4Science benchmarks largely focus on citation prediction, literature retrieval, or idea generation rather than the dependencies that make progress possible. In this paper, we introduce discovery pathway forecasting: given a target scientific contribution and the prior literature available at a specified time, the task is to (1) identify the enabling contributions required to realize it and (2) ground each in prior work when such prior work exists. We present SciPaths, a benchmark of 262 expert-annotated gold pathways and 2,444 silver pathways constructed from machine learning and natural language processing papers, where each pathway records enabling contributions, roles, rationales, and prior-work groundings or unmapped decisions. Evaluating frontier and open-weight language models, we find that the best model reaches only 0.189 F1 under strict semantic matching, with core methodological dependencies hardest to recover. Prior-work grounding improves substantially when gold enabling contributions are provided, showing that decomposition quality is a major bottleneck for end-to-end pathway recovery. SciPaths therefore shifts evaluation toward a missing capability in scientific forecasting: reasoning backward from a target contribution to the enabling scientific building blocks and prior-work dependencies that make it feasible.

Allocating more computation during inference time (test-time scaling) improves language model performance, especially for reasoning tasks. However, popular methods like Best-of-N sampling often show diminishing returns as N increases. To address this inefficiency, we introduce a general test-time calibration framework that adaptively modifies the model toward high-reward reasoning paths, with theoretical guarantees of improving the lower bound of expected reward under finite sampling, all without large language model (LLM) retraining. Within this framework, we propose CarBoN (Calibrated Best-of-N), a two-phase method that first explores the solution space and then learns a calibration of the logits via an input-specific temperature T and additive shift vector delta, guiding generation toward more reliable reasoning. Experiments on MATH-500 and AIME-2024 show that CarBoN improves efficiency, with up to 4times fewer rollouts to reach the same accuracy, while often achieving higher accuracy under fixed budgets. We also analyze the complementary roles of T and delta in balancing output diversity and correctness, and demonstrate that the framework also generalizes to step-level sampling strategies such as beam search. For more information, please refer to our project page at huggingface.co/spaces/TrustSafeAI/Test-Time-Calibration.

Detecting traversable pathways in unstructured outdoor environments remains a significant challenge for autonomous robots, especially in critical applications such as wide-area search and rescue, as well as incident management scenarios like forest fires. Existing datasets and models primarily target urban settings or wide, vehicle-traversable off-road tracks, leaving a substantial gap in addressing the complexity of narrow, trail-like off-road scenarios. To address this, we introduce the Trail-based Off-road Multimodal Dataset (TOMD), a comprehensive dataset specifically designed for such environments. TOMD features high-fidelity multimodal sensor data -- including 128-channel LiDAR, stereo imagery, GNSS, IMU, and illumination measurements -- collected through repeated traversals under diverse conditions. We also propose a dynamic multiscale data fusion model for accurate traversable pathway prediction. The study analyzes the performance of early, cross, and mixed fusion strategies under varying illumination levels. Results demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach and the relevance of illumination in segmentation performance. We publicly release TOMD at https://github.com/yyyxs1125/TMOD to support future research in trail-based off-road navigation.

We set out to train behavioral dispositions (self-verification, uncertainty acknowledgment, feedback integration) into small language models (0.6B to 2.3B effective parameters) through a four-stage all-MIT distillation pipeline, with follow-on experiments on inference-time attention-head interventions and a frozen-base confidence-gated sidecar. An internal draft reported +33.9-point MCAS and +15.3-point HumanEval gains on a Qwen3-0.6B student; a second-pass sanity check falsified both numbers before publication. The HumanEval delta was a truncation artifact (n_predict=512) that inverted to -8.0 points at n_predict=1024; the MCAS gain disappeared under apples-to-apples scoring. That falsification triggered three subsequent arcs. Across (1) SFT/DPO LoRA on three model families and two domains, (2) inference-time attention-head tempering on o_proj, and (3) a training-free frozen-base sidecar reading the final-token hidden state h_last, we find no operator that moves judge-measured disposition without damaging content or collapsing into stylistic mimicry. The failure is consistent across five models (Qwen3-0.6B, Qwen3-1.7B, Qwen3.5-0.8B, Gemma 4 E2B, and SmolLM2-1.7B-Instruct). A within-distribution cross-validation pass (AUC=0.683) collapsed to chance on fresh prompts (AUC=0.516). We contribute a three-arc negative result with mechanism, a two-failure-mode taxonomy for linear h_last probes, and an honest falsification pipeline that converts the class of false positives we ourselves produced into publishable negatives. As an independent finding, Gemma 4 E2B exhibits near-complete confidence-correctness decoupling on the Chef domain (assertion asymmetry -0.009; the model asserts at 91% regardless of correctness).

From a single image, visual cues can help deduce intrinsic and extrinsic camera parameters like the focal length and the gravity direction. This single-image calibration can benefit various downstream applications like image editing and 3D mapping. Current approaches to this problem are based on either classical geometry with lines and vanishing points or on deep neural networks trained end-to-end. The learned approaches are more robust but struggle to generalize to new environments and are less accurate than their classical counterparts. We hypothesize that they lack the constraints that 3D geometry provides. In this work, we introduce GeoCalib, a deep neural network that leverages universal rules of 3D geometry through an optimization process. GeoCalib is trained end-to-end to estimate camera parameters and learns to find useful visual cues from the data. Experiments on various benchmarks show that GeoCalib is more robust and more accurate than existing classical and learned approaches. Its internal optimization estimates uncertainties, which help flag failure cases and benefit downstream applications like visual localization. The code and trained models are publicly available at https://github.com/cvg/GeoCalib.

RTK-SLAM systems integrate simultaneous localization and mapping (SLAM) with real-time kinematic (RTK) GNSS positioning, promising both relative consistency and globally referenced coordinates for efficient georeferenced surveying. A critical and underappreciated issue is that the standard evaluation metric, Absolute Trajectory Error (ATE), first fits an optimal rigid-body transformation between the estimated trajectory and reference before computing errors. This so-called SE(3) alignment absorbs global drift and systematic errors, making trajectories appear more accurate than they are in practice, and is unsuitable for evaluating the global accuracy of RTK-SLAM. We present a geodetically referenced dataset and evaluation methodology that expose this gap. A key design principle is that the RTK receiver is used solely as a system input, while ground truth is established independently via a geodetic total station. This separation is absent from all existing datasets, where GNSS typically serves as (part of) the ground truth. The dataset is collected with a handheld RTK-SLAM device, comprising two scenes. We evaluate LiDAR-inertial, visual-inertial, and LiDAR-visual-inertial RTK-SLAM systems alongside standalone RTK, reporting direct global accuracy and SE(3)-aligned relative accuracy to make the gap explicit. Results show that SE(3) alignment can underestimate absolute positioning error by up to 76\%. RTK-SLAM achieves centimeter-level absolute accuracy in open-sky conditions and maintains decimeter-level global accuracy indoors, where standalone RTK degrades to tens of meters. The dataset, calibration files, and evaluation scripts are publicly available at https://rtk-slam-dataset.github.io/.

Fetal ultrasound standard-plane classification underpins reliable prenatal biometry and anomaly screening, yet real-world deployment is limited by domain shift, image noise, and poor calibration of predicted probabilities. This paper presents a practical framework for uncertainty-calibrated explainable AI in fetal plane classification. We synthesize uncertainty estimation methods (Monte Carlo dropout, deep ensembles, evidential learning, and conformal prediction) with post-hoc and uncertainty-aware explanations (Grad-CAM variants, LIME-style local surrogates, and uncertainty-weighted multi-resolution activation maps), and we map these components to a clinician-facing workflow. Using FETAL_PLANES_DB as a reference benchmark, we define a reporting protocol that couples accuracy with calibration and selective prediction, including expected calibration error, Brier score, coverage-risk curves, and structured error analysis with explanations. We also discuss integration points for quality control and human-in-the-loop review, where uncertainty flags trigger re-acquisition or expert confirmation. The goal is a reproducible, clinically aligned blueprint for building fetal ultrasound classifiers whose confidence and explanations remain trustworthy under noisy acquisition conditions.

Adverse weather image restoration aims to remove unwanted degraded artifacts, such as haze, rain, and snow, caused by adverse weather conditions. Existing methods achieve remarkable results for addressing single-weather conditions. However, they face challenges when encountering unpredictable weather conditions, which often happen in real-world scenarios. Although different weather conditions exhibit different degradation patterns, they share common characteristics that are highly related and complementary, such as occlusions caused by degradation patterns, color distortion, and contrast attenuation due to the scattering of atmospheric particles. Therefore, we focus on leveraging common knowledge across multiple weather conditions to restore images in a unified manner. In this paper, we propose a Triplet Attention Network (TANet) to efficiently and effectively address all-in-one adverse weather image restoration. TANet consists of Triplet Attention Block (TAB) that incorporates three types of attention mechanisms: Local Pixel-wise Attention (LPA) and Global Strip-wise Attention (GSA) to address occlusions caused by non-uniform degradation patterns, and Global Distribution Attention (GDA) to address color distortion and contrast attenuation caused by atmospheric phenomena. By leveraging common knowledge shared across different weather conditions, TANet successfully addresses multiple weather conditions in a unified manner. Experimental results show that TANet efficiently and effectively achieves state-of-the-art performance in all-in-one adverse weather image restoration. The source code is available at https://github.com/xhuachris/TANet-ACCV-2024.

3D human pose estimation has been a long-standing challenge in computer vision and graphics, where multi-view methods have significantly progressed but are limited by the tedious calibration processes. Existing multi-view methods are restricted to fixed camera pose and therefore lack generalization ability. This paper presents a novel Probabilistic Triangulation module that can be embedded in a calibrated 3D human pose estimation method, generalizing it to uncalibration scenes. The key idea is to use a probability distribution to model the camera pose and iteratively update the distribution from 2D features instead of using camera pose. Specifically, We maintain a camera pose distribution and then iteratively update this distribution by computing the posterior probability of the camera pose through Monte Carlo sampling. This way, the gradients can be directly back-propagated from the 3D pose estimation to the 2D heatmap, enabling end-to-end training. Extensive experiments on Human3.6M and CMU Panoptic demonstrate that our method outperforms other uncalibration methods and achieves comparable results with state-of-the-art calibration methods. Thus, our method achieves a trade-off between estimation accuracy and generalizability. Our code is in https://github.com/bymaths/probabilistic_triangulation

We present an approach that uses a multi-camera system to train fine-grained detectors for keypoints that are prone to occlusion, such as the joints of a hand. We call this procedure multiview bootstrapping: first, an initial keypoint detector is used to produce noisy labels in multiple views of the hand. The noisy detections are then triangulated in 3D using multiview geometry or marked as outliers. Finally, the reprojected triangulations are used as new labeled training data to improve the detector. We repeat this process, generating more labeled data in each iteration. We derive a result analytically relating the minimum number of views to achieve target true and false positive rates for a given detector. The method is used to train a hand keypoint detector for single images. The resulting keypoint detector runs in realtime on RGB images and has accuracy comparable to methods that use depth sensors. The single view detector, triangulated over multiple views, enables 3D markerless hand motion capture with complex object interactions.

Multi-view 3D reconstruction methods remain highly sensitive to photometric inconsistencies arising from camera optical characteristics and variations in image signal processing (ISP). Existing mitigation strategies such as per-frame latent variables or affine color corrections lack physical grounding and generalize poorly to novel views. We propose the Physically-Plausible ISP (PPISP) correction module, which disentangles camera-intrinsic and capture-dependent effects through physically based and interpretable transformations. A dedicated PPISP controller, trained on the input views, predicts ISP parameters for novel viewpoints, analogous to auto exposure and auto white balance in real cameras. This design enables realistic and fair evaluation on novel views without access to ground-truth images. PPISP achieves state-of-the-art performance on standard benchmarks, while providing intuitive control and supporting the integration of metadata when available. The source code is available at: https://github.com/nv-tlabs/ppisp

Identifying metabolic sites where cytochrome P450 enzymes metabolize small-molecule drugs is essential for drug discovery. Although existing computational approaches have been proposed for site-of-metabolism prediction, they typically ignore cytochrome P450 isoform identity or model isoforms independently, thereby failing to fully capture inherent cross-isoform metabolic patterns. In addition, prior evaluations often rely on top-k metrics, where false positive atoms may be included among the top predictions, underscoring the need for complementary metrics that more directly assess binary atom-level discrimination under severe class imbalance. We propose ATTNSOM, an atom-level site-of-metabolism prediction framework that integrates intrinsic molecular reactivity with cross-isoform relationships. The model combines a shared graph encoder, molecule-conditioned atom representations, and a cross-attention mechanism to capture correlated metabolic patterns across cytochrome P450 isoforms. The model is evaluated on two benchmark datasets annotated with site-of-metabolism labels at atom resolution. Across these benchmarks, the model achieves consistently strong top-k performance across multiple cytochrome P450 isoforms. Relative to ablated variants, the model yields higher Matthews correlation coefficient, indicating improved discrimination of true metabolic sites. These results support the importance of explicitly modeling cross-isoform relationships for site-of-metabolism prediction. The code and datasets are available at https://github.com/dmis-lab/ATTNSOM.

Recent sparse multi-view scene reconstruction advances like DUSt3R and MASt3R no longer require camera calibration and camera pose estimation. However, they only process a pair of views at a time to infer pixel-aligned pointmaps. When dealing with more than two views, a combinatorial number of error prone pairwise reconstructions are usually followed by an expensive global optimization, which often fails to rectify the pairwise reconstruction errors. To handle more views, reduce errors, and improve inference time, we propose the fast single-stage feed-forward network MV-DUSt3R. At its core are multi-view decoder blocks which exchange information across any number of views while considering one reference view. To make our method robust to reference view selection, we further propose MV-DUSt3R+, which employs cross-reference-view blocks to fuse information across different reference view choices. To further enable novel view synthesis, we extend both by adding and jointly training Gaussian splatting heads. Experiments on multi-view stereo reconstruction, multi-view pose estimation, and novel view synthesis confirm that our methods improve significantly upon prior art. Code will be released.

Imaging is usually a mixture problem of incomplete color sampling, noise degradation, and limited resolution. This mixture problem is typically solved by a sequential solution that applies demosaicing (DM), denoising (DN), and super-resolution (SR) sequentially in a fixed and predefined pipeline (execution order of tasks), DMtoDNtoSR. The most recent work on image processing focuses on developing more sophisticated architectures to achieve higher image quality. Little attention has been paid to the design of the pipeline, and it is still not clear how significant the pipeline is to image quality. In this work, we comprehensively study the effects of pipelines on the mixture problem of learning-based DN, DM, and SR, in both sequential and joint solutions. On the one hand, in sequential solutions, we find that the pipeline has a non-trivial effect on the resulted image quality. Our suggested pipeline DNtoSRtoDM yields consistently better performance than other sequential pipelines in various experimental settings and benchmarks. On the other hand, in joint solutions, we propose an end-to-end Trinity Pixel Enhancement NETwork (TENet) that achieves state-of-the-art performance for the mixture problem. We further present a novel and simple method that can integrate a certain pipeline into a given end-to-end network by providing intermediate supervision using a detachable head. Extensive experiments show that an end-to-end network with the proposed pipeline can attain only a consistent but insignificant improvement. Our work indicates that the investigation of pipelines is applicable in sequential solutions, but is not very necessary in end-to-end networks. Code, models, and our contributed PixelShift200 dataset are available at \url{https://github.com/guochengqian/TENet

Uncertainty quantification (UQ) is vital for trustworthy deep learning, yet existing methods are either computationally intensive, such as Bayesian or ensemble methods, or provide only partial, task-specific estimates, such as single-forward-pass techniques. In this paper, we propose a post-hoc single-forward-pass framework that jointly captures aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty without modifying or retraining pretrained models. Our method applies Split-Point Analysis (SPA) to decompose predictive residuals into upper and lower subsets, computing Mean Absolute Residuals (MARs) on each side. We prove that, under ideal conditions, the total MAR equals the harmonic mean of subset MARs; deviations define a novel Self-consistency Discrepancy Score (SDS) for fine-grained epistemic estimation across regression and classification. For regression, side-specific quantile regression yields prediction intervals with improved empirical coverage, which are further calibrated via SDS. For classification, when calibration data are available, we apply SPA-based calibration identities to adjust the softmax outputs and then compute predictive entropy on these calibrated probabilities. Extensive experiments on diverse regression and classification benchmarks demonstrate that our framework matches or exceeds several state-of-the-art UQ methods while incurring minimal overhead. Our source code is available at https://github.com/zzz0527/SPC-UQ.

When forecasting hourly returns for 1,000 US equities, we observe an unexpected phenomenon: predictions become nearly flat and show poor stock ranking, as measured by cross-sectional correlation. We call this forecast collapse. Surprisingly, the phenomenon largely disappears when forecasting trading volume under the same setting. We investigate forecast collapse across time-series foundation models (TSFMs), twelve deep-learning forecasting models, and 97 public benchmark configurations, and find that it is closely tied to target predictability. We identify two distinct reasons behind it: low predictability limits the amplitude of calibrated point forecasts, while per-series objectives leave cross-series structure unidentified. These findings reveal a calibration-ranking tradeoff: optimizing squared error leads to flat predictions, whereas directly optimizing cross-sectional correlation improves ranking but can inflate forecast amplitude by more than an order of magnitude. To address this tradeoff, we introduce CalibRank, a simple objective that balances calibration and ranking. On Finance1K, CalibRank nearly triples cross-sectional correlation while keeping amplitude close to the target, and improves correlation on all tested models. Our results reveal a blind spot in conventional time-series evaluation: per-series metrics can hide failures in cross-series structure needed by downstream decisions.

Clinical diagnosis is critical in medical practice, typically requiring a continuous and evolving process that includes primary diagnosis, differential diagnosis, and final diagnosis. However, most existing clinical diagnostic tasks are single-step processes, which does not align with the complex multi-step diagnostic procedures found in real-world clinical settings. In this paper, we propose a multi-step diagnostic task and annotate a clinical diagnostic dataset (MSDiagnosis). This dataset includes primary diagnosis, differential diagnosis, and final diagnosis questions. Additionally, we propose a novel and effective framework. This framework combines forward inference, backward inference, reflection, and refinement, enabling the LLM to self-evaluate and adjust its diagnostic results. To assess the effectiveness of our proposed method, we design and conduct extensive experiments. The experimental results demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method. We also provide a comprehensive experimental analysis and suggest future research directions for this task.

We introduce Self-Anchoring Calibration Drift (SACD), a hypothesized tendency for large language models (LLMs) to show systematic changes in expressed confidence when building iteratively on their own prior outputs across multi-turn conversations. We report an empirical study comparing three frontier models -- Claude Sonnet 4.6, Gemini 3.1 Pro, and GPT-5.2 -- across 150 questions spanning factual, technical, and open-ended domains, using three conditions: single-turn baseline (A), multi-turn self-anchoring (B), and independent repetition control (C). Results reveal a complex, model-heterogeneous pattern that partially diverges from pre-registered hypotheses. Claude Sonnet 4.6 exhibited significant decreasing confidence under self-anchoring (mean CDS = -0.032, t(14) = -2.43, p = .029, d = -0.627), while also showing significant calibration error drift (F(4,56) = 22.77, p < .001, eta^2 = .791). GPT-5.2 showed the opposite pattern in open-ended domains (mean CDS = +0.026) with significant ECE escalation by Turn 5. Gemini 3.1 Pro showed no significant CDS (t(14) = 0.38, p = .710), but its Condition C data reveals a striking ECE pattern: without self-anchoring, Gemini's calibration error drops from .327 to near zero across repetitions, whereas self-anchoring holds ECE flat at approximately .333 -- indicating that SACD can manifest as suppression of natural calibration improvement rather than ac

Machine learning models trained on Earth observation data, such as satellite imagery, have demonstrated significant promise in predicting household-level wealth indices, enabling the creation of high-resolution wealth maps that can be leveraged across multiple causal trials. However, because standard training objectives prioritize overall predictive accuracy, these predictions inherently suffer from shrinkage toward the mean, leading to attenuated estimates of causal treatment effects and limiting their utility in policy. Existing debiasing methods, such as Prediction-Powered Inference, can handle this attenuation bias but require additional fresh ground-truth data at the downstream stage of causal inference, which restricts their applicability in data-scarce environments. Here, we introduce and evaluate two correction methods -- linear calibration correction and Tweedie's correction -- that substantially reduce prediction bias without relying on newly collected labeled data. Linear calibration corrects bias through a straightforward linear transformation derived from held-out calibration data, whereas Tweedie's correction leverages empirical Bayes principles to directly address shrinkage-induced biases by exploiting score functions derived from the model's learning patterns. Through analytical exercises and experiments using Demographic and Health Survey data, we demonstrate that the proposed methods meet or outperform existing approaches that either require (a) adjustments to training pipelines or (b) additional labeled data. These approaches may represent a promising avenue for improving the reliability of causal inference when direct outcome measures are limited or unavailable, enabling a "one map, many trials" paradigm where a single upstream data creation team produces predictions usable by many downstream teams across diverse ML pipelines.

PTQTP decomposes LLM weight matrices into two ternary (trit) planes with two free per-group scales. Tying the scales to a fixed ratio of three collapses the decomposition into a single uniform nine-level quantizer, a known balanced-ternary identity. To our knowledge, at the time of writing, this work is the first to impose that identity as a constraint inside PTQTP's solver. The two trit planes then fold losslessly into one 4-bit code plane that we make the persistent serving representation: disk bytes, expert-cache bytes, and kernel input are the same 4.0625-bits/weight blocks, consumed in one integer dot pass. For this conjunction (ratio-3 nine-level code, CPU-SIMD kernels, SSD expert streaming, identical persistent bytes) we likewise found no precedent. We apply this to the routed experts of DeepSeek-V4-Flash-0731, a 284B-A13B mixture-of-experts model, quantizing in one shot from the released MXFP4 expert weights and streaming experts from SSD on a 64 GB laptop. Against a 4.5-bit Q4_K baseline, measured one process per fixture with an expert-lossless anchor arm as reference control, the tied model matches the official serving API on 5/5 fixtures at step 0 (Q4_K: 4/5) and 12/14 captured continuation steps (11/14), scores 86 vs. 84 on a 100-item MMLU subset, decodes 6.7% faster in decode phase, and ships 9% smaller files: no detected fidelity difference at these small evaluation sizes, and every fixture-level difference between the arms traces to a single measured near-tie cell. The tied fit nevertheless shows higher weight-reconstruction error and worse perplexity, a measured dissociation between proxy metrics and reference fidelity. A cumulative trunk-ternarization ladder and bitwise-pinned aarch64/x86-64 kernels complete the report. All code, formats, and evaluation artifacts are open source in the fucina inference stack.

Although Neural Radiance Fields (NeRFs) have markedly improved novel view synthesis, accurate uncertainty quantification in their image predictions remains an open problem. The prevailing methods for estimating uncertainty, including the state-of-the-art Density-aware NeRF Ensembles (DANE) [29], quantify uncertainty without calibration. This frequently leads to over- or under-confidence in image predictions, which can undermine their real-world applications. In this paper, we propose a method which, for the first time, achieves calibrated uncertainties for NeRFs. To accomplish this, we overcome a significant challenge in adapting existing calibration techniques to NeRFs: a need to hold out ground truth images from the target scene, reducing the number of images left to train the NeRF. This issue is particularly problematic in sparse-view settings, where we can operate with as few as three images. To address this, we introduce the concept of a meta-calibrator that performs uncertainty calibration for NeRFs with a single forward pass without the need for holding out any images from the target scene. Our meta-calibrator is a neural network that takes as input the NeRF images and uncalibrated uncertainty maps and outputs a scene-specific calibration curve that corrects the NeRF's uncalibrated uncertainties. We show that the meta-calibrator can generalize on unseen scenes and achieves well-calibrated and state-of-the-art uncertainty for NeRFs, significantly beating DANE and other approaches. This opens opportunities to improve applications that rely on accurate NeRF uncertainty estimates such as next-best view planning and potentially more trustworthy image reconstruction for medical diagnosis. The code is available at https://niki-amini-naieni.github.io/instantcalibration.github.io/.

Very High Resolution (VHR) forest structure data at individual-tree scale is essential for carbon, biodiversity, and ecosystem monitoring. Still, airborne LiDAR remains costly and infrequent despite being the reference for forest structure metrics like Canopy Height Model (CHM), Plant Area Index (PAI), and Foliage Height Diversity (FHD). We propose FSKD: a LiDAR-to-RGB-Infrared (RGBI) knowledge distillation (KD) framework in which a multi-modal teacher fuses RGBI imagery with LiDAR-derived planar metrics and vertical profiles via cross-attention, and an RGBI-only SegFormer student learns to reproduce these outputs. Trained on 384 km^2 of forests in Saxony, Germany (20 cm ground sampling distance (GSD)) and evaluated on eight geographically distinct test tiles, the student achieves state-of-the-art (SOTA) zero-shot CHM performance (MedAE 4.17 m, R^2=0.51, IoU 0.87), outperforming HRCHM/DAC baselines by 29--46% in MAE (5.81 m vs. 8.14--10.84 m) with stronger correlation coefficients (0.713 vs. 0.166--0.652). Ablations show that multi-modal fusion improves performance by 10--26% over RGBI-only training, and that asymmetric distillation with appropriate model capacity is critical. The method jointly predicts CHM, PAI, and FHD, a multi-metric capability not provided by current monocular CHM estimators, although PAI/FHD transfer remains region-dependent and benefits from local calibration. The framework also remains effective under temporal mismatch (winter LiDAR, summer RGBI), removing strict co-acquisition constraints and enabling scalable 20 cm operational monitoring for workflows such as Digital Twin Germany and national Digital Orthophoto programs.

Camera-LiDAR extrinsic calibration is a critical task for multi-sensor fusion in autonomous systems, such as self-driving vehicles and mobile robots. Traditional techniques often require manual intervention or specific environments, making them labour-intensive and error-prone. Existing deep learning-based self-calibration methods focus on small realignments and still rely on initial estimates, limiting their practicality. In this paper, we present PseudoCal, a novel self-calibration method that overcomes these limitations by leveraging the pseudo-LiDAR concept and working directly in the 3D space instead of limiting itself to the camera field of view. In typical autonomous vehicle and robotics contexts and conventions, PseudoCal is able to perform one-shot calibration quasi-independently of initial parameter estimates, addressing extreme cases that remain unsolved by existing approaches.