Daily Papers

Large language models (LLMs) show remarkable promise for democratizing automated reasoning by generating formal specifications. However, a fundamental tension exists: LLMs are probabilistic, while formal verification demands deterministic guarantees. This paper addresses this epistemological gap by comprehensively investigating failure modes and uncertainty quantification (UQ) in LLM-generated formal artifacts. Our systematic evaluation of five frontier LLMs reveals Satisfiability Modulo Theories (SMT) based autoformalization's domain-specific impact on accuracy (from +34.8% on logical tasks to -44.5% on factual ones), with known UQ techniques like the entropy of token probabilities failing to identify these errors. We introduce a probabilistic context-free grammar (PCFG) framework to model LLM outputs, yielding a refined uncertainty taxonomy. We find uncertainty signals are task-dependent (e.g., grammar entropy for logic, AUROC>0.93). Finally, a lightweight fusion of these signals enables selective verification, drastically reducing errors (14-100%) with minimal abstention, transforming LLM-driven formalization into a reliable engineering discipline.

Uncertainty estimation is essential for the safe clinical deployment of medical image segmentation systems, enabling the identification of unreliable predictions and supporting human oversight. While prior work has largely focused on pixel-level uncertainty, landmark-based segmentation offers inherent topological guarantees yet remains underexplored from an uncertainty perspective. In this work, we study uncertainty estimation for anatomical landmark-based segmentation on chest X-rays. Inspired by hybrid neural network architectures that combine standard image convolutional encoders with graph-based generative decoders, and leveraging their variational latent space, we derive two complementary measures: (i) latent uncertainty, captured directly from the learned distribution parameters, and (ii) predictive uncertainty, obtained by generating multiple stochastic output predictions from latent samples. Through controlled corruption experiments we show that both uncertainty measures increase with perturbation severity, reflecting both global and local degradation. We demonstrate that these uncertainty signals can identify unreliable predictions by comparing with manual ground-truth, and support out-of-distribution detection on the CheXmask dataset. More importantly, we release CheXmask-U (huggingface.co/datasets/mcosarinsky/CheXmask-U), a large scale dataset of 657,566 chest X-ray landmark segmentations with per-node uncertainty estimates, enabling researchers to account for spatial variations in segmentation quality when using these anatomical masks. Our findings establish uncertainty estimation as a promising direction to enhance robustness and safe deployment of landmark-based anatomical segmentation methods in chest X-ray. A fully working interactive demo of the method is available at huggingface.co/spaces/matiasky/CheXmask-U and the source code at github.com/mcosarinsky/CheXmask-U.

Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly used in decision-making contexts, but when they present answers without signaling low confidence, users may unknowingly act on erroneous outputs. Prior work shows that LLMs maintain internal uncertainty signals, yet their expressed confidence is often miscalibrated and poorly discriminates between correct and incorrect answers. We investigate whether supervised fine-tuning can improve models' ability to communicate uncertainty and whether such improvements generalize across tasks and domains. We fine-tune LLMs on datasets spanning general knowledge, mathematics, and open-ended trivia, and evaluate two metacognitive tasks: (1) single-question confidence estimation, where the model assigns a numeric certainty to its answer, and (2) pairwise confidence comparison, where the model selects which of two answers it is more likely to answer correctly. We assess generalization to unseen domains, including medical and legal reasoning. Results show that fine-tuning improves calibration (alignment between stated confidence and accuracy) and discrimination (higher confidence for correct vs. incorrect responses) within and across domains. However, gains are task-specific: training on single-question calibration does not transfer to pairwise comparison, and vice versa. Multitask fine-tuning yields broader gains, lowering calibration error and strengthening discrimination in out-of-domain evaluations. This suggests that uncertainty communication in LLMs is trainable but requires multitask training to generalize effectively.

Reinforcement Learning with Verifiable Rewards (RLVR) has shown significant promise for enhancing the reasoning capabilities of large language models (LLMs). However, prevailing algorithms like GRPO broadcast a uniform advantage signal across all tokens in a sequence. This coarse-grained approach overlooks the pivotal role of uncertain, high-stakes decisions during reasoning, leading to inefficient exploration and the well-documented problem of entropy collapse. To address this, we introduce UnCertainty-aware Advantage Shaping (UCAS), a model-free method that refines credit assignment by leveraging the model's internal uncertainty signals. UCAS operates in two stages: it first modulates the response-level advantage using the model's overall self-confidence, and then applies a token-level penalty based on raw logit certainty. This dual mechanism encourages exploration of high-uncertainty paths that yield correct answers while penalizing overconfident yet erroneous reasoning, effectively balancing the exploration-exploitation trade-off. Extensive experiments on five mathematical reasoning benchmarks show that UCAS significantly outperforms strong RLVR baselines across multiple model scales, including 1.5B and 7B. Our analysis confirms that UCAS not only achieves higher rewards but also promotes greater reasoning diversity and successfully mitigates entropy collapse.

Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly deployed as multi-step decision-making agents, where effective reward design is essential for guiding learning. Although recent work explores various forms of reward shaping and step-level credit assignment, a key signal remains largely overlooked: the intrinsic uncertainty of LLMs. Uncertainty reflects model confidence, reveals where exploration is needed, and offers valuable learning cues even in failed trajectories. We introduce SELAUR: Self Evolving LLM Agent via Uncertainty-aware Rewards, a reinforcement learning framework that incorporates uncertainty directly into the reward design. SELAUR integrates entropy-, least-confidence-, and margin-based metrics into a combined token-level uncertainty estimate, providing dense confidence-aligned supervision, and employs a failure-aware reward reshaping mechanism that injects these uncertainty signals into step- and trajectory-level rewards to improve exploration efficiency and learning stability. Experiments on two benchmarks, ALFWorld and WebShop, show that our method consistently improves success rates over strong baselines. Ablation studies further demonstrate how uncertainty signals enhance exploration and robustness.

Large Language Models (LLMs) that can express interpretable and calibrated uncertainty are crucial in high-stakes domains. While methods to compute uncertainty post-hoc exist, they are often sampling-based and therefore computationally expensive or lack calibration. We propose a three-stage pipeline to post-train LLMs to efficiently infer calibrated uncertainty estimates for their responses. First, we compute fine-grained entropy-based uncertainty scores on the training data, capturing the distributional variability of model outputs in embedding space. Second, these scores are calibrated via Platt scaling, producing reliable and human-interpretable uncertainty signals. Finally, the target LLM is post-trained via reinforcement learning to align its policy with these calibrated signals through a verifiable reward function. Unlike post-hoc uncertainty estimation methods, our approach provides interpretable and computationally efficient uncertainty estimates at test time. Experiments show that models trained with our pipeline achieve better calibration than baselines and generalize to unseen tasks without further processing, suggesting that they learn a robust uncertainty reasoning behavior.

Concept Bottleneck Models (CBMs) predict through human-interpretable concepts, but they typically output point concept probabilities that conflate epistemic uncertainty (reducible model underspecification) with aleatoric uncertainty (irreducible input ambiguity). This makes concept-level uncertainty hard to interpret and, more importantly, hard to act upon. We introduce CREDENCE (Credal Ensemble Concept Estimation), a CBM framework that decomposes concept uncertainty by construction. CREDENCE represents each concept as a credal prediction (a probability interval), derives epistemic uncertainty from disagreement across diverse concept heads, and estimates aleatoric uncertainty via a dedicated ambiguity output trained to match annotator disagreement when available. The resulting signals support prescriptive decisions: automate low-uncertainty cases, prioritize data collection for high-epistemic cases, route high-aleatoric cases to human review, and abstain when both are high. Across several tasks, we show that epistemic uncertainty is positively associated with prediction errors, whereas aleatoric uncertainty closely tracks annotator disagreement, providing guidance beyond error correlation. Our implementation is available at the following link: https://github.com/Tankiit/Credal_Sets/tree/ensemble-credal-cbm

While LLMs have seen substantial improvement in reasoning capabilities, they also sometimes overthink, generating unnecessary reasoning steps, particularly under uncertainty, given ill-posed or ambiguous queries. We introduce statistically principled early stopping methods that monitor uncertainty signals during generation to mitigate this issue. Our first approach is parametric: it models inter-arrival times of uncertainty keywords as a renewal process and applies sequential testing for stopping. Our second approach is nonparametric and provides finite-sample guarantees on the probability of halting too early on well-posed queries. We conduct empirical evaluations on reasoning tasks across several domains and models. Our results indicate that uncertainty-aware early stopping can improve both efficiency and reliability in LLM reasoning, and we observe especially significant gains for math reasoning.

Large language models (LLMs) often suffer from context faithfulness hallucinations, where outputs deviate from retrieved information due to insufficient context utilization and high output uncertainty. Our uncertainty evaluation experiments reveal a strong correlation between high uncertainty and hallucinations. We hypothesize that attention mechanisms encode signals indicative of contextual utilization, validated through probing analysis. Based on these insights, we propose Dynamic Attention-Guided Context Decoding (DAGCD), a lightweight framework that integrates attention distributions and uncertainty signals in a single-pass decoding process. Experiments across QA datasets demonstrate DAGCD's effectiveness, achieving significant improvements in faithfulness and robustness while maintaining computational efficiency.

Large Language Models (LLMs) often hallucinate in question answering (QA) tasks. A key yet underexplored factor contributing to this is the temporality of questions -- whether they are evergreen (answers remain stable over time) or mutable (answers change). In this work, we introduce EverGreenQA, the first multilingual QA dataset with evergreen labels, supporting both evaluation and training. Using EverGreenQA, we benchmark 12 modern LLMs to assess whether they encode question temporality explicitly (via verbalized judgments) or implicitly (via uncertainty signals). We also train EG-E5, a lightweight multilingual classifier that achieves SoTA performance on this task. Finally, we demonstrate the practical utility of evergreen classification across three applications: improving self-knowledge estimation, filtering QA datasets, and explaining GPT-4o retrieval behavior.

Large Language Models (LLMs) can produce surprisingly sophisticated estimates of their own uncertainty. However, it remains unclear to what extent this expressed confidence is tied to the reasoning, knowledge, or decision making of the model. To test this, we introduce RiskEval: a framework designed to evaluate whether models adjust their abstention policies in response to varying error penalties. Our evaluation of several frontier models reveals a critical dissociation: models are neither cost-aware when articulating their verbal confidence, nor strategically responsive when deciding whether to engage or abstain under high-penalty conditions. Even when extreme penalties render frequent abstention the mathematically optimal strategy, models almost never abstain, resulting in utility collapse. This indicates that calibrated verbal confidence scores may not be sufficient to create trustworthy and interpretable AI systems, as current models lack the strategic agency to convert uncertainty signals into optimal and risk-sensitive decisions.

Dynamic Data selection aims to accelerate training by prioritizing informative samples during online training. However, existing methods typically rely on task-specific handcrafted metrics or static/snapshot-based criteria to estimate sample importance, limiting scalability across learning paradigms and making it difficult to capture the evolving utility of data throughout training. To address this challenge, we propose Data Agent, an end-to-end dynamic data selection framework that formulates data selection as a training-aware sequential decision-making problem. The agent learns a sample-wise selection policy that co-evolves with model optimization, guided by a composite reward that integrates loss-based difficulty and confidence-based uncertainty signals. The reward signals capture complementary objectives of optimization impact and information gain, together with a tuning-free adaptive weighting mechanism that balances these signals over training. Extensive experiments across a wide range of datasets and architectures demonstrate that Data Agent consistently accelerates training while preserving or improving performance, e.g., reducing costs by over 50\% on ImageNet-1k and MMLU with lossless performance. Moreover, its dataset-agnostic formulation and modular reward make it plug-and-play across tasks and scenarios, e.g., robustness to noisy datasets, highlighting its potential in real-world scenarios. Code is available at https://github.com/Jackbrocp/Data-Agent.

In-context learning enables transformers to adapt to new tasks from a few examples at inference time, while grokking highlights that this generalization can emerge abruptly only after prolonged training. We study task generalization and grokking in in-context learning using a Bayesian perspective, asking what enables the delayed transition from memorization to generalization. Concretely, we consider modular arithmetic tasks in which a transformer must infer a latent linear function solely from in-context examples and analyze how predictive uncertainty evolves during training. We combine approximate Bayesian techniques to estimate the posterior distribution and we study how uncertainty behaves across training and under changes in task diversity, context length, and context noise. We find that epistemic uncertainty collapses sharply when the model groks, making uncertainty a practical label-free diagnostic of generalization in transformers. Additionally, we provide theoretical support with a simplified Bayesian linear model, showing that asymptotically both delayed generalization and uncertainty peaks arise from the same underlying spectral mechanism, which links grokking time to uncertainty dynamics.

The task of Error Prediction, namely predicting whether a model output is correct, is commonly tackled with Uncertainty Quantification (UQ). However, while uncertainty metrics capture when models lack knowledge or capacity to make a prediction, they also reflect aleatoric uncertainty, which is inherent in the model input and context. This paper presents a method for improving error prediction for Large Language Models (LLMs), by disentangling input ambiguity from UQ signal. We conduct experiments on the task of Question Answering (QA) with six UQ metrics and show that UQ metrics are more predictive of errors on unambiguous instances than on questions with multiple plausible answers. We use Gated Experts and Selective Prediction to incorporate gold and predicted ambiguity labels into the error prediction pipeline. We find that ambiguity information improves error prediction scores across model families, training and evaluation paradigms, datasets (including allegedly unambiguous ones), and sources of aleatoric uncertainty, yielding improvements of over 10 points of PRR for individual UQ metrics on standard datasets.

Diffusion language models (DLMs) have recently emerged as a promising alternative to autoregressive models, primarily due to their ability to enable parallel decoding. Despite this advantage, most existing DLMs rely on a fixed generation length specified prior to decoding, which restricts their flexibility in real-world applications. While a few recent works attempt to support flexible-length generation, they typically suffer from notable limitations: some require costly retraining to accommodate variable-length outputs, while others depend solely on local confidence signals during decoding. Such local criteria fail to capture the evolving structure of the sequence, often resulting in suboptimal generation quality. In this paper, we propose a training-free, Bayesian structured decoding framework that formulates flexible-length generation as a dynamic structural inference problem. Our approach formulates flexible-length generation as a dynamic structural inference problem, jointly computing the expansion length, the block boundaries, and the decoding schedule. At each window expansion step, the method integrates local uncertainty with structural signals via a unified mechanism that supports dynamic structured generation, including both flexible block expansion and block organization, while maintaining coherence. Extensive experiments across multiple benchmarks demonstrate that our approach significantly improves generation quality and flexibility over existing fixed-length and flexible-length baselines. These results highlight the advantage of Bayesian structured decoding for diffusion language model, providing a principled and efficient solution for structured text generation.

Specialist epilepsy expertise is scarce in resource-constrained settings, making LLM-based decision support attractive for frontline clinicians managing longitudinal treatment. Such systems must adapt to local prescribing practice and know when to defer. We study this problem in Ugandan pediatric epilepsy care, predicting anti-seizure medication regimens from longitudinal unstructured clinic notes. Standard prompting achieves non-trivial agreement with physician prescriptions, but neurologist review shows that many errors reflect distribution-miscalibrated prescribing defaults rather than failures to parse the local record. We introduce MANANA, a non-parametric prompt-learning framework that learns local prescribing guidance from a small patient-level training set. MANANA converts observed prescription errors into auditable prompt memories, instantiated in single-agent and multi-agent variants, and improves over classical ML models, direct LLM prompting, and prompt-optimization baselines across two independently collected Ugandan cohorts. We further propose Bayesian prompt averaging, which converts the learned prompt trajectory into prescription likelihoods and an uncertainty-based deferral signal. On the independently collected held-out cohort, this improves visit-level top-3 prescription accuracy by 4-8 percentage points over prompt-optimization baselines and enables selective prediction: the system can auto-handle the most confident half of cases at 95% precision, or the most confident quarter at 99% precision, while deferring lower-confidence cases for specialist review.

In long-horizon tasks, recent agents based on Large Language Models (LLMs) face a significant challenge that sparse, outcome-based rewards make it difficult to assign credit to intermediate steps. Previous methods mainly focus on creating dense reward signals to guide learning, either through traditional reinforcement learning techniques like inverse reinforcement learning or by using Process Reward Models for step-by-step feedback. In this paper, we identify a fundamental problem in the learning dynamics of LLMs: the magnitude of policy gradients is inherently coupled with the entropy, which leads to inefficient small updates for confident correct actions and potentially destabilizes large updates for uncertain ones. To resolve this, we propose Entropy-Modulated Policy Gradients (EMPG), a framework that re-calibrates the learning signal based on step-wise uncertainty and the final task outcome. EMPG amplifies updates for confident correct actions, penalizes confident errors, and attenuates updates from uncertain steps to stabilize exploration. We further introduce a bonus term for future clarity that encourages agents to find more predictable solution paths. Through comprehensive experiments on three challenging agent tasks, WebShop, ALFWorld, and Deep Search, we demonstrate that EMPG achieves substantial performance gains and significantly outperforms strong policy gradient baselines. Project page is at https://empgseed-seed.github.io/

Long-context handling remains a core challenge for language models: even with extended context windows, models often fail to reliably extract, reason over, and use the information across long contexts. Recent works like Recursive Language Models (RLM) have approached this challenge by agentic way of decomposing long contexts into recursive sub-calls through programmatic interaction at inference. While promising, the success of RLM critically depends on how these context-interaction programs are selected, which has remained largely unexplored. In this paper, we study this problem and introduce SRLM, a framework that augments programmatic context interaction with uncertainty-aware Self-Reflection. SRLM leverages three intrinsic signals: self consistency, reasoning length, and verbalized confidence. These serve as complementary indicators of a model's internal uncertainty, and the model uses them to evaluate and compare candidate context-interaction programs. Extensive experiments across diverse benchmark datasets, context lengths, and backbone models, show that SRLM consistently outperforms state-of-the-art baselines, yielding up to 22% improvement over RLM under the same time budget. Our findings show that recursion itself is not the primary driver of performance in RLM, and a simple self-reflective program search can match or surpass RLM without requiring self-query or explicit recursion mechanisms. We find that for context lengths within the model's window, RLMs with recursion often degrade performance relative to the base model, whereas SRLM yields consistent gains across both short and long contexts. We also find that RLM is less effective in tasks with semantically intensive nature, where heuristic program search is insufficient and broader contextual understanding is required, while self-reflection in SRLM provides a semantic signal that better steers reasoning in these scenarios.

Can our brain signals faithfully reflect the original visual stimuli, even including high-frequency details? Although human perceptual and cognitive capacities enable us to process and remember visual information, these abilities are constrained by several factors, such as limited attentional resources and the finite capacity of visual memory. When visual stimuli are processed by human visual system into brain signals, some information is inevitably lost, leading to a discrepancy known as the System GAP. Additionally, perceptual and cognitive dynamics, along with technical noise in signal acquisition, degrade the fidelity of brain signals relative to the visual stimuli, known as the Random GAP. When encoded brain representations are directly aligned with the corresponding pretrained image features, the System GAP and Random GAP between paired data challenge the model, requiring it to bridge these gaps. However, in the context of limited paired data, these gaps are difficult for the model to learn, leading to overfitting and poor generalization to new data. To address these GAPs, we propose a simple yet effective approach called the Uncertainty-aware Blur Prior (UBP). It estimates the uncertainty within the paired data, reflecting the mismatch between brain signals and visual stimuli. Based on this uncertainty, UBP dynamically blurs the high-frequency details of the original images, reducing the impact of the mismatch and improving alignment. Our method achieves a top-1 accuracy of 50.9\% and a top-5 accuracy of 79.7\% on the zero-shot brain-to-image retrieval task, surpassing previous state-of-the-art methods by margins of 13.7\% and 9.8\%, respectively. Code is available at https://github.com/HaitaoWuTJU/Uncertainty-aware-Blur-Prior{GitHub}.

To achieve dexterity comparable to that of humans, robots must intelligently process tactile sensor data. Taxel-based tactile signals often have low spatial-resolution, with non-standardized representations. In this paper, we propose a novel framework, HyperTaxel, for learning a geometrically-informed representation of taxel-based tactile signals to address challenges associated with their spatial resolution. We use this representation and a contrastive learning objective to encode and map sparse low-resolution taxel signals to high-resolution contact surfaces. To address the uncertainty inherent in these signals, we leverage joint probability distributions across multiple simultaneous contacts to improve taxel hyper-resolution. We evaluate our representation by comparing it with two baselines and present results that suggest our representation outperforms the baselines. Furthermore, we present qualitative results that demonstrate the learned representation captures the geometric features of the contact surface, such as flatness, curvature, and edges, and generalizes across different objects and sensor configurations. Moreover, we present results that suggest our representation improves the performance of various downstream tasks, such as surface classification, 6D in-hand pose estimation, and sim-to-real transfer.

Although AI agents have demonstrated impressive capabilities in long-horizon reasoning, their reliability is severely hampered by the ``Spiral of Hallucination,'' where early epistemic errors propagate irreversibly. Existing methods face a dilemma: uncertainty quantification (UQ) methods typically act as passive sensors, only diagnosing risks without addressing them, while self-reflection mechanisms suffer from continuous or aimless corrections. To bridge this gap, we propose a unified Dual-Process Agentic UQ (AUQ) framework that transforms verbalized uncertainty into active, bi-directional control signals. Our architecture comprises two complementary mechanisms: System 1 (Uncertainty-Aware Memory, UAM), which implicitly propagates verbalized confidence and semantic explanations to prevent blind decision-making; and System 2 (Uncertainty-Aware Reflection, UAR), which utilizes these explanations as rational cues to trigger targeted inference-time resolution only when necessary. This enables the agent to balance efficient execution and deep deliberation dynamically. Extensive experiments on closed-loop benchmarks and open-ended deep research tasks demonstrate that our training-free approach achieves superior performance and trajectory-level calibration. We believe this principled framework AUQ represents a significant step towards reliable agents.

Predicting mortality-related outcomes from images offers the prospect of accessible, noninvasive, and scalable health screening. We present a method that leverages pretrained vision transformer foundation models to estimate remaining lifespan from facial and whole-body images, alongside robust uncertainty quantification. We show that predictive uncertainty varies systematically with the true remaining lifespan, and that this uncertainty can be effectively modeled by learning a Gaussian distribution for each sample. Our approach achieves state-of-the-art mean absolute error (MAE) of 7.48 years on an established Dataset, and further improves to 4.79 and 5.07 years MAE on two new, higher-quality datasets curated and published in this work. Importantly, our models provide well-calibrated uncertainty estimates, as demonstrated by a bucketed expected calibration error of 0.62 years. While not intended for clinical deployment, these results highlight the potential of extracting medically relevant signals from images. We make all code and datasets available to facilitate further research.

We propose a lightweight and single-pass uncertainty quantification method for detecting hallucinations in Large Language Models. The method uses attention matrices to estimate uncertainty without requiring repeated sampling or external models. Specifically, we measure the Kullback-Leibler divergence between each attention head's distribution and a uniform reference distribution, and use these features in a logistic regression probe. Across multiple datasets, task types, and model families, attention divergence is highly predictive of answer correctness and performs competitively with existing uncertainty estimation methods. We find that this signal is concentrated in middle layers and on factual tokens such as named entities and numbers, suggesting that attention dynamics provides an efficient and interpretable white-box signal of model uncertainty.

Reliable uncertainty quantification (UQ) is essential for deploying large language model (LLM) agents in complex interactive environments. Existing UQ methods largely rely on local signals, such as token probabilities, predictive entropy, or per-step confidence, and therefore overlook the long-range dependencies through which errors accumulate across an execution trajectory. As a result, they may fail to identify agent failures whose causes originate several reasoning or interaction steps before the final answer. We propose RUPA (Relational Uncertainty Propagation for Agents), a trajectory-level UQ framework for LLM agents. RUPA represents an execution history as a directed trajectory graph in which reasoning states, tool interactions, and environment feedback are nodes connected by temporal and semantic dependency edges. It then propagates uncertainty over this graph to capture how execution risk accumulates and transfers across interaction steps. The propagated signal is combined with trajectory-level behavioral features and goal-alignment information to produce a confidence estimate for the full agent trajectory. We evaluate RUPA on representative agent benchmarks, including τ-2, Terminal-Bench-2, and GAIA, using 6 open-source LLMs spanning multiple model families. Experimental results show that RUPA consistently outperforms existing UQ methods by providing more accurate uncertainty estimates, enabling earlier failure detection, and improving uncertainty-guided agent execution across diverse agent tasks. These results demonstrate that explicitly modeling relational dependency is crucial to reliable UQ for long-horizon LLM agents, providing a practical foundation for trustworthy agent execution.

Accurate localization using visual information is a critical yet challenging task, especially in urban environments where nearby buildings and construction sites significantly degrade GNSS (Global Navigation Satellite System) signal quality. This issue underscores the importance of visual localization techniques in scenarios where GNSS signals are unreliable. This paper proposes U-ViLAR, a novel uncertainty-aware visual localization framework designed to address these challenges while enabling adaptive localization using high-definition (HD) maps or navigation maps. Specifically, our method first extracts features from the input visual data and maps them into Bird's-Eye-View (BEV) space to enhance spatial consistency with the map input. Subsequently, we introduce: a) Perceptual Uncertainty-guided Association, which mitigates errors caused by perception uncertainty, and b) Localization Uncertainty-guided Registration, which reduces errors introduced by localization uncertainty. By effectively balancing the coarse-grained large-scale localization capability of association with the fine-grained precise localization capability of registration, our approach achieves robust and accurate localization. Experimental results demonstrate that our method achieves state-of-the-art performance across multiple localization tasks. Furthermore, our model has undergone rigorous testing on large-scale autonomous driving fleets and has demonstrated stable performance in various challenging urban scenarios.

Dynamic Retrieval-Augmented Generation adaptively determines when to retrieve during generation to mitigate hallucinations in large language models (LLMs). However, existing methods rely on model-internal signals (e.g., logits, entropy), which are fundamentally unreliable because LLMs are typically ill-calibrated and often exhibit high confidence in erroneous outputs. We propose QuCo-RAG, which shifts from subjective confidence to objective statistics computed from pre-training data. Our method quantifies uncertainty through two stages: (1) before generation, we identify low-frequency entities indicating long-tail knowledge gaps; (2) during generation, we verify entity co-occurrence in the pre-training corpus, where zero co-occurrence often signals hallucination risk. Both stages leverage Infini-gram for millisecond-latency queries over 4 trillion tokens, triggering retrieval when uncertainty is high. Experiments on multi-hop QA benchmarks show QuCo-RAG achieves EM gains of 5--12 points over state-of-the-art baselines with OLMo-2 models, and transfers effectively to models with undisclosed pre-training data (Llama, Qwen, GPT), improving EM by up to 14 points. Domain generalization on biomedical QA further validates the robustness of our paradigm. These results establish corpus-grounded verification as a principled, practically model-agnostic paradigm for dynamic RAG. Our code is publicly available at https://github.com/ZhishanQ/QuCo-RAG.

LLM agents extend large language models with tool-calling capabilities, but ambiguous user instructions often lead to incorrect invocations and task failures. We introduce a principled formulation of structured uncertainty over tool-call parameters, modeling joint tool-argument clarification as a POMDP with Expected Value of Perfect Information (EVPI) objective for optimal question selection and aspect-based cost modeling to prevent redundancy. Our SAGE-Agent leverages this structured uncertainty to achieve superior efficiency: increasing coverage on ambiguous tasks by 7-39\% while reducing clarification questions by 1.5-2.7times compared to strong prompting and uncertainty-based baselines. We present ClarifyBench, the first multi-turn tool-augmented disambiguation benchmark with realistic LLM-based user simulation across diverse domains including document editing, vehicle control, and travel booking. Additionally, we demonstrate that structured uncertainty provides effective training signals for reinforcement learning, boosting When2Call accuracy from 36.5\% to 65.2\% (3B model) and 36.7\% to 62.9\% (7B model) through uncertainty-weighted GRPO training. These results establish structured uncertainty as a principled, efficient approach for tool-augmented agents, improving both task success and interaction efficiency in real-world scenarios.

End-to-end autonomous driving has emerged as a pivotal direction in the field of autonomous systems. Recent works have demonstrated impressive performance by incorporating high-level guidance signals to steer low-level trajectory planners. However, their potential is often constrained by inaccurate high-level guidance and the computational overhead of complex guidance modules. To address these limitations, we propose Mimir, a novel hierarchical dual-system framework capable of generating robust trajectories relying on goal points with uncertainty estimation: (1) Unlike previous approaches that deterministically model, we estimate goal point uncertainty with a Laplace distribution to enhance robustness; (2) To overcome the slow inference speed of the guidance system, we introduce a multi-rate guidance mechanism that predicts extended goal points in advance. Validated on challenging Navhard and Navtest benchmarks, Mimir surpasses previous state-of-the-art methods with a 20% improvement in the driving score EPDMS, while achieving 1.6 times improvement in high-level module inference speed without compromising accuracy. The code and models will be released soon to promote reproducibility and further development. The code is available at https://github.com/ZebinX/Mimir-Uncertainty-Driving

Multi-hop question answering (QA) requires models to retrieve and reason over multiple pieces of evidence. While Retrieval-Augmented Generation (RAG) has made progress in this area, existing methods often suffer from two key limitations: (1) fixed or overly frequent retrieval steps, and (2) ineffective use of previously retrieved knowledge. We propose MIND (Memory-Informed and INteractive Dynamic RAG), a framework that addresses these challenges through: (i) prompt-based entity extraction to identify reasoning-relevant elements, (ii) dynamic retrieval triggering based on token-level entropy and attention signals, and (iii) memory-aware filtering, which stores high-confidence facts across reasoning steps to enable consistent multi-hop generation.

Recent position papers argue that the classical aleatoric/epistemic uncertainty framework is insufficient for interactive large language model (LLM) agents and call for underspecification-aware, decomposed, and communicable uncertainty representations that can unlock new agent capabilities such as proactive clarification seeking and shared mental-model building. Practical deployment constraints -- black-box APIs, interactive latency budgets, and the absence of labeled trajectories -- rule out logprob-based, multi-sampling, and training-based methods, leaving prompt-based estimation as the most viable family for surfacing such signals at deployment time. We answer this call with a simple prompt-based decomposition that separates action confidence from request uncertainty (u), enabling the agent to ask for clarification when the task specification is ambiguous. To evaluate it, we introduce two clarification-augmented benchmarks (WebShop-Clarification and ALFWorld-Clarification) in which 50% of tasks are deliberately underspecified, and systematically compare the proposed decomposition against ReAct+UE and Uncertainty-Aware Memory (UAM) across five LLM backbones (GPT-5.1, DeepSeek-v3.2-exp, GLM-4.7, Qwen3.5-35B, GPT-OSS-120B) on these variants together with the standard WebShop, ALFWorld, and REAL benchmarks for fault detection. Averaged across the five backbones, the proposed decomposition improves clarification F1 on ALFWorld-Clarification by 73% over ReAct+UE and by 36% over UAM, and leads clarification F1 on every backbone on WebShop-Clarification and on four of five backbones on ALFWorld-Clarification, indicating that the gains generalize beyond a single LLM.

Large language models (LLMs) can generate fluent reasoning traces that nevertheless lead to incorrect answers, making response-level uncertainty estimation important for abstention, human review, and adaptive compute allocation. Existing approaches generally fall into three categories: passive single-trace methods use token-level confidence signals, sampling-based methods compare multiple complete traces at higher generation cost, and active prefix-based methods probe partial traces to study answer stabilization or preference transitions. However, none actively re-elicits an answer from a completed reasoning trace to measure its consistency with and support for the original answer. To address this gap, we introduce Trace-Conditioned Answer Consistency (TrAC), a correctness-supervised uncertainty quantification framework that combines active and passive signals anchored to one completed reasoning trace. Its active component, Prefix-Conditioned Elicitation (PCE), re-elicits a short answer conditioned on the completed trace and represents both its consistency with the original answer and its token-level probabilistic support. Its passive component, Trace Uncertainty Profile (TUP), summarizes how token-level uncertainty evolves throughout the original generation without additional decoding. A lightweight head then integrates the two representations into a response-correctness score. Across five mathematical reasoning benchmarks and three LLM families, TrAC improves macro AUROC by 1.8% and reduces AURC by 3.4% relative to eight-sample self-consistency, while using one complete reasoning trace and a short cached answer probe. When eight samples are already available, augmenting sample consensus with re-elicitation further improves macro AUROC by 4.3% and reduces AURC by 8.3%, without additional full-trace generation.

Large language models (LLMs) now exhibit strong multi-step reasoning abilities, but existing inference-time scaling methods remain computationally expensive, often relying on extensive sampling or external evaluators. We propose a principled strategy that frames reasoning as uncertainty minimisation and operates at the level of individual thoughts rather than tokens. Our method selects, at each reasoning step, the continuation that maximizes the model's self-certainty, a metric computed from its internal predictive distribution. This approach achieves significant improvement with a small number of samples, relies exclusively on model-internal signals, and applies to open-ended questions as opposed to methods like majority voting. Experiments on MATH500 and GSM8K across multiple model sizes demonstrate that thought-level self-certainty maximization consistently outperforms greedy decoding and matches or exceeds self-consistency under comparable token budgets. Cross-linguistic evaluations further indicate that the method transfers robustly beyond high-resource languages. Furthermore, analysis of self-certainty dynamics reveals that correct reasoning trajectories converge early to stable paths, suggesting that early decisions, likely associated with the planning of the reasoning process, are predictive of final accuracy. Building on this result, we show that self-certainty maximisation applied to the early steps can explain most of the performance gain and provide a simple yet efficient inference-time scaling method.

Probabilistic forecasting estimates the likelihood of uncertain future events. To improve LLM forecasting, existing methods typically learn from binary outcomes to output verbalized forecasts. However, while aggregated human forecasts contain rich information in both the crowd probability estimate and the degree of agreement among forecasters, how to utilize these signals remains underexplored. To address this, we propose the Beta-Bernoulli Calibrator (BBC), which converts an initial point estimate forecast from any model into a distribution over event likelihood, using supervision from both binary outcomes and human forecasts. BBC models event likelihood p sim Beta(α, β) and outcome y sim Bernoulli(p), with the mean as the calibrated point forecast and the variance as the epistemic uncertainty. Our results show that BBC generally provides better calibrated and more accurate forecasts than both traditional post-hoc calibration methods and models fine-tuned specifically for forecasting, while remaining lightweight and having good generalization. We also show that the epistemic uncertainty captured by BBC is a more reliable predictor of forecasting error than verbalized confidence.

Large language models can arrive at the same answer through reasoning paths that are unstable, contradictory, or difficult to rank consistently -- a failure mode especially prevalent in multi-step deductive reasoning. Existing methods assess reliability primarily through output dispersion -- measuring how much sampled answers differ -- but this discards a complementary signal: whether the model can consistently rank competing reasoning candidates. We propose structural uncertainty, a consistency-aware framework derived from the stability of self-preference-induced rankings over sampled reasoning solutions. Given a query, we generate multiple candidate solutions and ask the model to judge pairwise preferences among its own outputs. We aggregate self-preferences into ranking distributions via Bradley-Terry modeling with PageRank, and decompose the signal into two entropy-based components: across-trial ranking instability and within-trial candidate ambiguity. Across five LLMs and eight benchmarks, structural signals provide information complementary to answer dispersion: on logical and mathematical reasoning tasks, the combination improves identification of unreliable instances, while on factual retrieval the structural signal collapses toward uniformity, diagnosing a regime boundary where reasoning-level consistency evaluation is uninformative. The two components relate differently to accuracy: within-trial ambiguity correlates positively with correctness -- consistent with settings where multiple plausible solution paths remain competitive -- while across-trial instability correlates negatively, signaling unreliable reasoning. Structural uncertainty is best understood not as a universal confidence estimator, but as a regime-sensitive evaluator of logical reasoning consistency.

Vision-language-action (VLA) models have emerged as generalist robotic controllers capable of mapping visual observations and natural language instructions to continuous action sequences. However, VLAs provide no calibrated measure of confidence in their action predictions, thus limiting their reliability in real-world settings where uncertainty and failures must be anticipated. To address this problem we introduce ReconVLA, a reliable conformal model that produces uncertainty-guided and failure-aware control signals. Concretely, our approach applies conformal prediction directly to the action token outputs of pretrained VLA policies, yielding calibrated uncertainty estimates that correlate with execution quality and task success. Furthermore, we extend conformal prediction to the robot state space to detect outliers or unsafe states before failures occur, providing a simple yet effective failure detection mechanism that complements the action-level uncertainty. We evaluate ReconVLA in both simulation and real robot experiments across diverse manipulation tasks. Our results show that conformalized action predictions consistently improve failure anticipation, reduce catastrophic errors, and provide a calibrated measure of confidence without retraining or modifying the underlying VLA.

Solving complex tasks usually requires LLMs to generate long multi-step reasoning chains. Previous work has shown that verifying the correctness of individual reasoning steps can further improve the performance and efficiency of LLMs on such tasks and enhance solution interpretability. However, existing verification approaches, such as Process Reward Models (PRMs), are either computationally expensive, limited to specific domains, or require large-scale human or model-generated annotations. Thus, we propose a lightweight alternative for step-level reasoning verification based on data-driven uncertainty scores. We train transformer-based uncertainty quantification heads (UHeads) that use the internal states of a frozen LLM to estimate the uncertainty of its reasoning steps during generation. The approach is fully automatic: target labels are generated either by another larger LLM (e.g., DeepSeek R1) or in a self-supervised manner by the original model itself. UHeads are both effective and lightweight, containing less than 10M parameters. Across multiple domains, including mathematics, planning, and general knowledge question answering, they match or even surpass the performance of PRMs that are up to 810x larger. Our findings suggest that the internal states of LLMs encode their uncertainty and can serve as reliable signals for reasoning verification, offering a promising direction toward scalable and generalizable introspective LLMs.

Despite the remarkable capabilities of large language models, current training paradigms inadvertently foster sycophancy, i.e., the tendency of a model to agree with or reinforce user-provided information even when it's factually incorrect. To address this challenge, we introduce SMART (Sycophancy Mitigation through Adaptive Reasoning Trajectories), which reframes sycophancy as a reasoning optimization problem rather than an output alignment issue. SMART is a two-stage framework comprising: (1) Uncertainty-Aware Adaptive Monte Carlo Tree Search (UA-MCTS), which dynamically adjusts model exploration based on state-level uncertainty to collect high-quality, diverse reasoning trajectories alongside both stepwise progress and final outcome rewards; and (2) progress-based reinforcement learning, which fine-tunes the model using the collected trajectories and reward signals to reinforce effective reasoning patterns. Through extensive experiments, we show that SMART significantly reduces sycophantic behavior while preserving strong performance on out-of-distribution inputs and maintaining general capabilities. These results underscore the importance of optimizing internal reasoning mechanisms to build more truthful and aligned AI assistants.

Recent advancements in the Generative Reward Model (GRM) have demonstrated its potential to enhance the reasoning abilities of LLMs through Chain-of-Thought (CoT) prompting. Despite these gains, existing implementations of GRM suffer from two critical limitations. First, CoT prompting is applied indiscriminately to all inputs regardless of their inherent complexity. This introduces unnecessary computational costs for tasks amenable to fast, direct inference. Second, existing approaches primarily rely on voting-based mechanisms to evaluate CoT outputs, which often lack granularity and precision in assessing reasoning quality. In this paper, we propose E-GRM, an efficient generative reward modeling framework grounded in model-internal uncertainty. E-GRM leverages the convergence behavior of parallel model generations to estimate uncertainty and selectively trigger CoT reasoning only when needed, without relying on handcrafted features or task-dependent signals. To improve reward fidelity, we introduce a lightweight discriminative scorer trained with a hybrid regression--ranking objective to provide fine-grained evaluation of reasoning paths. Experiments on multiple reasoning benchmarks show that E-GRM substantially reduces inference cost while consistently improving answer accuracy, demonstrating that model-internal uncertainty is an effective and general signal for efficient reasoning-aware reward modeling.

Recent advances in synergizing large reasoning models (LRMs) with retrieval-augmented generation (RAG) have shown promising results, yet two critical challenges remain: (1) reasoning models typically operate from a single, unchallenged perspective, limiting their ability to conduct deep, self-correcting reasoning over external documents, and (2) existing training paradigms rely excessively on outcome-oriented rewards, which provide insufficient signal for shaping the complex, multi-step reasoning process. To address these issues, we propose an Reasoner-Verifier framework named Adversarial Reasoning RAG (ARR). The Reasoner and Verifier engage in reasoning on retrieved evidence and critiquing each other's logic while being guided by process-aware advantage that requires no external scoring model. This reward combines explicit observational signals with internal model uncertainty to jointly optimize reasoning fidelity and verification rigor. Experiments on multiple benchmarks demonstrate the effectiveness of our method.

LLMs are increasingly deployed in high-stakes domains such as medical triage and legal assistance, often as document-grounded QA systems in which a user provides a description, relevant sources are retrieved, and an LLM generates a prediction. In practice, initial user queries are often underspecified, and a single retrieval pass is insufficient for reliable decision-making, leading to incorrect and overly confident answers. While follow-up questioning can elicit missing information, existing methods typically depend on implicit, unstructured confidence signals from the LLM, making it difficult to determine what remains unknown, what information matters most, and when to stop asking questions. We propose InfoGatherer, a framework that gathers missing information from two complementary sources: retrieved domain documents and targeted follow-up questions to the user. InfoGatherer models uncertainty using Dempster-Shafer belief assignments over a structured evidential network, enabling principled fusion of incomplete and potentially contradictory evidence from both sources without prematurely collapsing to a definitive answer. Across legal and medical tasks, InfoGatherer outperforms strong baselines while requiring fewer turns. By grounding uncertainty in formal evidential theory rather than heuristic LLM signals, InfoGatherer moves towards trustworthy, interpretable decision support in domains where reliability is critical.

Uncertainty quantification (UQ) for open-ended language generation remains a critical yet underexplored challenge, especially under black-box constraints where internal model signals are inaccessible. In this paper, we introduce Token-Entropy Conformal Prediction (TECP), a novel framework that leverages token-level entropy as a logit-free, reference-free uncertainty measure and integrates it into a split conformal prediction (CP) pipeline to construct prediction sets with formal coverage guarantees. Unlike existing approaches that rely on semantic consistency heuristics or white-box features, TECP directly estimates epistemic uncertainty from the token entropy structure of sampled generations and calibrates uncertainty thresholds via CP quantiles to ensure provable error control. Empirical evaluations across six large language models and two benchmarks (CoQA and TriviaQA) demonstrate that TECP consistently achieves reliable coverage and compact prediction sets, outperforming prior self-consistency-based UQ methods. Our method provides a principled and efficient solution for trustworthy generation in black-box LLM settings.

LLM-judged benchmarks are increasingly used to evaluate complex model behaviors, yet their design introduces failure modes absent in conventional ground-truth based benchmarks. We argue that without tight objectives and verifiable constructions, benchmark rankings can produce high-confidence rankings that are in fact largely noise. We introduce two mechanisms to diagnose these issues. Schematic adherence quantifies how much of a judge's overall verdict is explained by the explicit evaluation schema, revealing unexplained variance when judges deviate from their own rubric. Psychometric validity aggregates internal consistency and discriminant validity signals to quantify irreducible uncertainty in any benchmarking run. Applying these tools to Arena-Hard Auto, we find severe schema incoherence and factor collapse across popular judges: for example, unexplained variance exceeding 90 percent for DeepSeek-R1-32B and factor correlations above 0.93 for most criteria. We also show that the ELO-style aggregation used by Arena-Hard Auto collapses and masks genuine ranking uncertainty. Our results highlight design failures that undermine validity and offer actionable principles for building better-scoped, reliability-aware LLM-judged benchmarks. We release our code at https://anonymous.4open.science/r/judgment-to-noise-947D/README.md

Running a business is a challenging form of intelligent work. Operators must infer opportunities from partial signals, commit capital under uncertainty, adapt to delayed outcomes in a changing market, and satisfy regulatory obligations before trading legally. Frontier LLM agents can increasingly complete complex workflows, yet business-related capabilities are rarely evaluated in existing agent benchmarks. We introduce Business Arena, a controlled environment where an AI agent runs a cross-border shop, buying from suppliers and selling to buyers over a long horizon. We ground the arena in real Alibaba.com sourcing data and market conditions calibrated from authoritative sources. Delayed and coupled consequences make individual business decisions difficult to judge, but their combined outcome is measurable through profit. Because profit alone cannot explain why an agent succeeds or fails, we compare agents with human-designed strategies to estimate available opportunity, use skill-level metrics to reveal underlying strengths and weaknesses, and trace realized gains and losses to the actions that produced them. We use mechanism ablations to establish that strong results reflect genuine business intelligence rather than neglect or simulator-specific shortcuts. We evaluate 15 frontier models and find a ninefold difference in mean final net worth. Even the best model falls behind human-designed strategies, indicating that business operation remains challenging for LLM agents. Skill-level analysis reveals operating styles, from margin-focused premium sellers to high-turnover wholesalers and customer-service specialists, while action-level attribution identifies the sourcing, pricing, and recovery decisions that create or destroy value. Together, Business Arena takes a first step toward a realistic and trustworthy testbed for evaluating end-to-end business agents.

The rapid evolution of large language models necessitates robust machine-generated text detection. Existing paradigms typically follow two isolated tracks. Training-free methods rely on global statistical scalars such as perplexity, while training-based methods utilize semantic hidden states. Both approaches exhibit fundamental vulnerabilities in adversarial scenarios. Global scalars act as lossy compressions that obscure local probabilistic burstiness in interleaved texts, whereas pure semantic models overfit to specific fingerprints and remain susceptible to spoofing. To expose these flaws, we introduce MOSAIC, a comprehensive adversarial benchmark comprising 16000 samples across a full-granularity attack spectrum. To address these challenges, we propose NeuroStat, an end-to-end framework bridging the statistical and semantic gap. NeuroStat captures uncompressed token-level probabilistic logits alongside deep semantic hidden states from a single causal language model backbone. We fuse these heterogeneous signals through Macro-State Residual Modulation, which adaptively calibrates local convolutional features using global uncertainty indicators. Orthogonal and contrastive losses further ensure the learning of complementary representations. Extensive experiments demonstrate that NeuroStat maintains exceptional robustness on MOSAIC compared to the severe degradation of state-of-the-art methods, establishing a new standard for adversarial text detection. Code and the MOSAIC benchmark are available at https://github.com/TencentBAC/NeuroStat.

Reinforcement learning for LLM agents is typically conducted on a static data distribution, which fails to adapt to the agent's evolving behavior and leads to poor coverage of complex environment interactions. To address these challenges, we propose CoEvolve, an agent-data mutual evolution framework that enables LLM agents to improve through closed-loop, interaction-driven training. Specifically, CoEvolve extracts feedback signals such as forgetting and uncertainty from rollout trajectories to identify failure-prone interaction patterns, and utilizes them to guide LLM-based task synthesis. The synthesized tasks are validated through environment interaction and utilized to update the data distribution, enabling joint adaptation of the agent and its data. Extensive experiments on AppWorld and BFCL across Qwen2.5-7B, Qwen3-4B, and Qwen3-30B-A3B demonstrate consistent and significant improvements over strong base models, yielding absolute gains of 19.43%, 15.58%, and 18.14%, respectively.

Which reasoning behaviors are associated with correct answers in reasoning models, and does reasoning-oriented training amplify those behaviors? This distinction is important because reasoning-oriented training can make traces look more deliberative without amplifying the behaviors most tied to model correctness. We quantify this mismatch with Behavioral Lift, a metric that measures how much correctness changes when a behavior is present versus absent in a model's reasoning trace. Across 15 models and 6 benchmarks spanning text-only and vision-language reasoning, we annotate 15,282 traces with a taxonomy whose core behaviors are defined for both LLM and VLM traces. We find evidence for an Amplification-Lift Gap, in which thinking models strongly amplify self-correction, hypothesis testing, and uncertainty acknowledgment, while the highest-lift behaviors are confidence calibration, knowledge alignment, and self-awareness. Confidence calibration is among the strongest positive signals of correctness in both modalities, yet is barely amplified; uncertainty acknowledgment is amplified by 3--7times, yet is weakly or negatively associated with correctness. We find that reasoning-oriented training does not preferentially amplify the highest-Lift behaviors, motivating process-level objectives that reward calibrated and grounded reasoning rather than surface form alone.

In this paper we apply self-knowledge distillation to text summarization which we argue can alleviate problems with maximum-likelihood training on single reference and noisy datasets. Instead of relying on one-hot annotation labels, our student summarization model is trained with guidance from a teacher which generates smoothed labels to help regularize training. Furthermore, to better model uncertainty during training, we introduce multiple noise signals for both teacher and student models. We demonstrate experimentally on three benchmarks that our framework boosts the performance of both pretrained and non-pretrained summarizers achieving state-of-the-art results.

Recently, Agentic Reinforcement Learning (Agentic RL) has made significant progress in incentivizing the multi-turn, long-horizon tool-use capabilities of web agents. While mainstream agentic RL algorithms autonomously explore high-uncertainty tool-call steps under the guidance of entropy, excessive reliance on entropy signals can impose further constraints, leading to the training collapse. In this paper, we delve into the challenges caused by entropy and propose the Agentic Entropy-Balanced Policy Optimization (AEPO), an agentic RL algorithm designed to balance entropy in both the rollout and policy update phases. AEPO comprises two core components: (1) a dynamic entropy-balanced rollout mechanism that adaptively allocate global and branch sampling budget through entropy pre-monitoring, while imposing a branch penalty on consecutive high-entropy tool-call steps to prevent over-branching issues; and (2) Entropy-Balanced Policy Optimization that inserts a stop-gradient operation into the high-entropy clipping term to preserve and properly rescale gradients on high-entropy tokens, while incorporating entropy-aware advantage estimation to prioritize learning on high-uncertainty tokens. Results across 14 challenging datasets show that AEPO consistently outperforms 7 mainstream RL algorithms. With just 1K RL samples, Qwen3-14B with AEPO achieves impressive results: 47.6% on GAIA, 11.2% on Humanity's Last Exam, and 43.0% on WebWalker for Pass@1; 65.0% on GAIA, 26.0% on Humanity's Last Exam, and 70.0% on WebWalker for Pass@5. Further analysis reveals that AEPO improves rollout sampling diversity while maintaining stable policy entropy, facilitating scalable web agent training.

Large Reasoning Models (LRMs) extend large language models with explicit, multi-step reasoning traces to enhance transparency and performance on complex tasks. However, these reasoning traces can be redundant or logically inconsistent, making them a new source of hallucination that is difficult to detect. Existing hallucination detection methods focus primarily on answer-level uncertainty and often fail to detect hallucinations or logical inconsistencies arising from the model's reasoning trace. This oversight is particularly problematic for LRMs, where the explicit thinking trace is not only an important support to the model's decision-making process but also a key source of potential hallucination. To this end, we propose RACE (Reasoning and Answer Consistency Evaluation), a novel framework specifically tailored for hallucination detection in LRMs. RACE operates by extracting essential reasoning steps and computing four diagnostic signals: inter-sample consistency of reasoning traces, entropy-based answer uncertainty, semantic alignment between reasoning and answers, and internal coherence of reasoning. This joint analysis enables fine-grained hallucination detection even when the final answer appears correct. Experiments across datasets and different LLMs demonstrate that RACE outperforms existing hallucination detection baselines, offering a robust and generalizable solution for evaluating LRMs. Our code is available at: https://github.com/bebr2/RACE.

Real-world professional desktop workflows in specialized creative and engineering software unfold over long horizons and often require human-in-the-loop coordination, where agents proactively seek necessary information and users provide additional instructions, clarifications, feedback, or corrections as the task progresses. Yet existing desktop GUI benchmarks mostly reduce this setting to short, simplified tasks with all user instructions provided upfront. To address this issue, we introduce DeskCraft, a desktop GUI benchmark targeting long horizon creative and engineering workflows and proactive human-agent collaboration. DeskCraft organizes tasks into a multilevel difficulty taxonomy, with long horizon tasks requiring over 50 execution steps, and covers professional creative software across design, video, audio, and 3D creation. Furthermore, DeskCraft formalizes human-agent collaboration into an interaction protocol covering mid-turn and post-turn exchanges. Mid-turn interaction captures both agent-initiated clarification under uncertainty and user-initiated interruption during execution, while post-turn interaction accommodates user-driven feedback after the agent signals completion, together spanning the full space of realistic collaboration patterns. We evaluate 18 proprietary and open source agents on 538 tasks and find that GPT-5.4 reaches 31.6% on standard tasks and 27.6% on interactive tasks. Further analyses reveal persistent failures in long horizon workflow delivery and proactive clarification. We will open-source all evaluation codes, tasks, and data at https://github.com/mrwwk/DeskCraft.

Large language models and deep neural networks achieve strong performance but suffer from reliability issues and high computational cost. This thesis proposes a unified framework based on spectral geometry and random matrix theory to address both problems by analyzing the eigenvalue structure of hidden activations. The first contribution, EigenTrack, is a real-time method for detecting hallucinations and out-of-distribution behavior in language and vision-language models using spectral features and their temporal dynamics. The second contribution, RMT-KD, is a principled compression method that identifies informative spectral components and applies iterative knowledge distillation to produce compact and efficient models while preserving accuracy. Together, these results show that spectral statistics provide interpretable and robust signals for monitoring uncertainty and guiding compression in large-scale neural networks.

Reinforcement learning (RL) has become essential for post-training large language models (LLMs) in reasoning tasks. While scaling rollouts can stabilize training and enhance performance, the computational overhead is a critical issue. In algorithms like GRPO, multiple rollouts per prompt incur prohibitive costs, as a large portion of prompts provide negligible gradients and are thus of low utility. To address this problem, we investigate how to select high-utility prompts before the rollout phase. Our experimental analysis reveals that sample utility is non-uniform and evolving: the strongest learning signals concentrate at the ``learning edge", the intersection of intermediate difficulty and high uncertainty, which shifts as training proceeds. Motivated by this, we propose HIVE (History-Informed and online-VErified prompt selection), a dual-stage framework for data-efficient RL. HIVE utilizes historical reward trajectories for coarse selection and employs prompt entropy as a real-time proxy to prune instances with stale utility. By evaluating HIVE across multiple math reasoning benchmarks and models, we show that HIVE yields significant rollout efficiency without compromising performance.

Biomedical researchers increasingly use AI-generated analyses and reports to interpret protein-level signals, but static outputs are often insufficient for research decision-making, where users need to inspect evidence, assess uncertainty, compare mechanisms, and refine hypotheses. We present BioInsight, a multi-agent system that moves from static biomedical report generation to interactive evidence-centered interactive interface generation. Given a disease name, a protein association table, and optional cohort metadata, BioInsight organizes disease-specific evidence through typed intermediate artifacts, including ranked pathways, literature evidence packets, protein-level reasoning notes, citation-grounded reports, dashboard schemas, and rendered interactive interfaces. The system decomposes evidence retrieval from mechanistic reasoning, normalizes citations through deterministic components, and converts the same structured evidence used in the report into an interactive interface. We evaluate BioInsight on standardized biomedical QA, challenging protein-function reasoning, and end-to-end biomedical evidence synthesis. Results show that BioInsight achieves best, and suggest that biomedical AI systems should move beyond text-only and static reports toward provenance-preserving, interactive evidence artifacts.

Reasoning capability has advanced rapidly in large language models (LLMs), leading to an increasing size of key-value (KV) cache in both prefilling and decoding stages. Existing KV cache compression methods mainly rely on attention weights to estimate token importance. While attention effectively captures contextual relevance, it overlooks complementary information-theoretic signals related to predictive uncertainty and token informativeness. In this paper, we revisit token importance from a forward-looking perspective and introduce Forward Influence, a metric that measures how compressed tokens affect future contexts. Our analysis reveals that tokens selected by attention scores mainly influence nearby contexts, whereas tokens associated with high predictive uncertainty exhibit substantially stronger influence on distant future contexts. Based on the observation, we propose InfoKV, an entropy-aware KV cache compression framework that incorporates information-theoretic signals. It combines token-level predictive uncertainty with layer-wise representation evolution and integrates the resulting entropy scores with attention scores during reasoning. Experiments on long-context reasoning benchmarks with Llama-3.1, Llama-3.2, and DeepSeek-R1 demonstrate that InfoKV consistently outperforms existing attention-based KV compression methods in both long prefilling and decoding scenarios.

Instruction tuning has emerged as a critical paradigm for improving the capabilities and alignment of large language models (LLMs). However, existing iterative model-aware data selection methods incur significant computational overhead, as they rely on repeatedly performing full-dataset model inference to estimate sample utility for subsequent training iterations, creating a fundamental efficiency bottleneck. In this paper, we propose LEAD, an efficient iterative data selection framework that accurately estimates sample utility entirely within the standard training loop, eliminating the need for costly additional model inference. At its core, LEAD introduces Instance-Level Dynamic Uncertainty (IDU), a theoretically grounded utility function combining instantaneous training loss, gradient-based approximation of loss changes, and exponential smoothing of historical loss signals. To further scale efficiently to large datasets, LEAD employs a two-stage, coarse-to-fine selection strategy, adaptively prioritizing informative clusters through a multi-armed bandit mechanism, followed by precise fine-grained selection of high-utility samples using IDU. Extensive experiments across four diverse benchmarks show that LEAD significantly outperforms state-of-the-art methods, improving average model performance by 6.1%-10.8% while using only 2.5% of the training data and reducing overall training time by 5-10x.

Multivariate time series data for real-world applications typically contain a significant amount of missing values. The dominant approach for classification with such missing values is to impute them heuristically with specific values (zero, mean, values of adjacent time-steps) or learnable parameters. However, these simple strategies do not take the data generative process into account, and more importantly, do not effectively capture the uncertainty in prediction due to the multiple possibilities for the missing values. In this paper, we propose a novel probabilistic framework for classification with multivariate time series data with missing values. Our model consists of two parts; a deep generative model for missing value imputation and a classifier. Extending the existing deep generative models to better capture structures of time-series data, our deep generative model part is trained to impute the missing values in multiple plausible ways, effectively modeling the uncertainty of the imputation. The classifier part takes the time series data along with the imputed missing values and classifies signals, and is trained to capture the predictive uncertainty due to the multiple possibilities of imputations. Importantly, we show that na\"ively combining the generative model and the classifier could result in trivial solutions where the generative model does not produce meaningful imputations. To resolve this, we present a novel regularization technique that can promote the model to produce useful imputation values that help classification. Through extensive experiments on real-world time series data with missing values, we demonstrate the effectiveness of our method.

The emerging zero-shot capabilities of Large Language Models (LLMs) have led to their applications in areas extending well beyond natural language processing tasks. In reinforcement learning, while LLMs have been extensively used in text-based environments, their integration with continuous state spaces remains understudied. In this paper, we investigate how pre-trained LLMs can be leveraged to predict in context the dynamics of continuous Markov decision processes. We identify handling multivariate data and incorporating the control signal as key challenges that limit the potential of LLMs' deployment in this setup and propose Disentangled In-Context Learning (DICL) to address them. We present proof-of-concept applications in two reinforcement learning settings: model-based policy evaluation and data-augmented off-policy reinforcement learning, supported by theoretical analysis of the proposed methods. Our experiments further demonstrate that our approach produces well-calibrated uncertainty estimates. We release the code at https://github.com/abenechehab/dicl.

Identifying the vulnerabilities of large language models (LLMs) is crucial for improving their safety by addressing inherent weaknesses. Jailbreaks, in which adversaries bypass safeguards with crafted input prompts, play a central role in red-teaming by probing LLMs to elicit unintended or unsafe behaviors. Recent optimization-based jailbreak approaches iteratively refine attack prompts by leveraging LLMs. However, they often rely heavily on either binary attack success rate (ASR) signals, which are sparse, or manually crafted scoring templates, which introduce human bias and uncertainty in the scoring outcomes. To address these limitations, we introduce AMIS (Align to MISalign), a meta-optimization framework that jointly evolves jailbreak prompts and scoring templates through a bi-level structure. In the inner loop, prompts are refined using fine-grained and dense feedback using a fixed scoring template. In the outer loop, the template is optimized using an ASR alignment score, gradually evolving to better reflect true attack outcomes across queries. This co-optimization process yields progressively stronger jailbreak prompts and more calibrated scoring signals. Evaluations on AdvBench and JBB-Behaviors demonstrate that AMIS achieves state-of-the-art performance, including 88.0% ASR on Claude-3.5-Haiku and 100.0% ASR on Claude-4-Sonnet, outperforming existing baselines by substantial margins.

We propose a lightweight explainable guardrail (LEG) method for the classification of unsafe prompts. LEG uses a multi-task learning architecture to jointly learn a prompt classifier and an explanation classifier, where the latter labels prompt words that explain the safe/unsafe overall decision. LEG is trained using synthetic data for explainability, which is generated using a novel strategy that counteracts the confirmation biases of LLMs. Lastly, LEG's training process uses a novel loss that captures global explanation signals and combines cross-entropy and focal losses with uncertainty-based weighting. LEG obtains equivalent or better performance than the state-of-the-art for both prompt classification and explainability, both in-domain and out-of-domain on three datasets, despite the fact that its model size is considerably smaller than current approaches. If accepted, we will release all models and the annotated dataset publicly.

Earth Observation (EO) forecasting aims to predict future Earth surface dynamics from satellite observations under changing meteorological conditions. In this paper, we view this task as a partially observed, weather-driven world modeling problem, in which weather acts as a conditioning signal, while forecasting remains uncertain due to sparse observations and unobserved land-surface states. However, existing methods do not fully capture this setting: deterministic models collapse uncertainty into a single future prediction, while diffusion-based methods typically treat weather variables as undifferentiated conditioning signals, and existing benchmarks focus mainly on reconstruction accuracy rather than whether forecasts respond correctly to changed weather forcing.We introduce EO-WM, a video diffusion transformer for multispectral EO forecasting. EO-WM incorporates a physically informed conditioning framework that represents meteorological forcing through a climatological baseline, weather anomalies, and cumulative physical stress signals. Specifically, it separates baseline and anomaly through distinct conditioning pathways, and accumulates anomalous forcing over time to capture sustained heat and drought stress. To evaluate weather-response behavior beyond standard metrics, we introduce two diagnostic benchmarks: an Extreme Summer Benchmark for severity-aware prediction of vegetation degradation under extreme weather, and a Seasonal Matched-Pair Benchmark for testing response fidelity under changed weather forcing. Experiments show that EO-WM reduces the error in predicted Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) decline amplitude by a relative 5.63% and improves directional hit rate by a relative 7.80%, while remaining competitive on standard pixel-level metrics. The benchmarks and model will be made open-source at https://github.com/Luo-Z13/EO-WM.

Large language models (LLMs) provide strong performance across a wide range of tasks but are typically hosted on centralised cloud infrastructure, incurring significant bandwidth, latency, and privacy costs. In contrast, small language models (SLMs) can run on edge devices but have limited capability and robustness. This paper introduces SWARM-LLM, a routing and collaboration layer that coordinates a small swarm of edge-hosted SLMs with an optional cloud foundation model (FM). SWARM-LLM decides, for each query, whether to answer locally, collaborate with peer SLMs, or "summon" a cloud FM, using lightweight uncertainty estimates and safety signals. We implement a working prototype on commodity hardware with three heterogeneous SLMs and a 70B-parameter cloud FM accessed via API, and evaluate it on a controlled study workload of easy, hard, and safety-oriented queries. Our results show that SWARM-LLM substantially improves performance on hard questions compared to an edge-only deployment, while limiting cloud usage to roughly one quarter of queries, illustrating a practical trade-off between accuracy, latency, and cost for privacy-conscious edge deployments. The implementation code is available at the GitHub repository https://github.com/mdahshan/swarm_llm.

Deep search requires agents to answer complex questions through multi-step web search, browsing, evidence comparison, and synthesis. A central challenge is deciding how to search when several directions look plausible but only some will later lead to reliable evidence. If an agent greedily follows the current best-looking direction, it may keep extending a weak continuation. If it explores without discipline, it may waste budget on disconnected trials. We propose TreeSeeker, an inference-time framework for controlled trial-and-error in deep search. TreeSeeker organizes search as branch-and-return search over tree-structured states, where each branch is a tentative direction for a sub-goal. At each round, TreeSearch reads all sub-goal trees, identifies active goals, and uses textual UCB signals of value, uncertainty, and risk to select among exploiting a promising branch, exploring an uncertain alternative, or pruning an unproductive continuation and returning to an earlier branch point. TreeMem supports this control loop by keeping evidence, uncertainty, conflicts, progress, and failure cues attached to the branches that produced them, so trial outcomes can guide later decisions. Experiments on XBench-DeepSearch, BrowseComp, and BrowseComp-ZH show that TreeSeeker consistently outperforms strong open-source baselines, suggesting that explicit branch-and-return control complements stronger reasoning and tool execution.

While multi-view 3D reconstruction has shifted toward large-scale foundation models capable of inferring globally consistent geometry, their reliance on massive computational clusters for training has created a significant barrier to entry for most academic laboratories. To bridge this compute divide, we introduce Distill3R, a framework designed to distill the geometric reasoning of 3D foundation models into compact students fully trainable on a single workstation. Our methodology centers on two primary innovations: (1) an offline caching pipeline that decouples heavy teacher inference from the training loop through compressed supervision signals, and (2) a confidence-aware distillation loss that leverages teacher uncertainty to enable training on commodity hardware. We propose a 72M-parameter student model which achieves a 9x reduction in parameters and a 5x inference speedup compared to its 650M-parameter teacher. The student is fully trainable in under 3 days on a single workstation, whereas its teacher requires massive GPU clusters for up to a week. We demonstrate that the student preserves the structural consistency and qualitative geometric understanding required for functional 3D awareness. By providing a reproducible, single-workstation training recipe, Distill3R serves as an exploratory entry point for democratized 3D vision research and efficient edge deployment. This work is not intended to compete with state-of-the-art foundation models, but to provide an accessible research baseline for laboratories without access to large-scale compute to train and specialize models on their own domain-specific data at minimal cost.

Vision-language process reward models (VL-PRMs) are increasingly used to score intermediate reasoning steps and rerank candidates under test-time scaling. However, they often function as black-box judges: a low step score may reflect a genuine reasoning mistake or simply the verifier's misperception of the image. This entanglement between perception and reasoning leads to systematic false positives (rewarding hallucinated visual premises) and false negatives (penalizing correct grounded statements), undermining both reranking and error localization. We introduce Explicit Visual Premise Verification (EVPV), a lightweight verification interface that conditions step scoring on the reliability of the visual premises a step depends on. The policy is prompted to produce a step-wise visual checklist that makes required visual facts explicit, while a constraint extractor independently derives structured visual constraints from the input image. EVPV matches checklist claims against these constraints to compute a scalar visual reliability signal, and calibrates PRM step rewards via reliability gating: rewards for visually dependent steps are attenuated when reliability is low and preserved when reliability is high. This decouples perceptual uncertainty from logical evaluation without per-step tool calls. Experiments on VisualProcessBench and six multimodal reasoning benchmarks show that EVPV improves step-level verification and consistently boosts Best-of-N reranking accuracy over strong baselines. Furthermore, injecting controlled corruption into the extracted constraints produces monotonic performance degradation, providing causal evidence that the gains arise from constraint fidelity and explicit premise verification rather than incidental prompt effects. Code is available at: https://github.com/Qwen-Applications/EVPV-PRM

Reward models are central to text-to-image post-training, but visual preference is subjective and better represented as a distribution over rubric scores than as a deterministic scalar. Existing scalar, score-token, and pairwise reward models over-compress uncertainty and fine-grained score differences, while reasoning-based generative rewards provide stronger judgments but are costly to deploy and difficult to use as direct optimization signals. We propose Z-Reward, a teacher-student reward modeling framework that decouples reasoning-heavy judgment from efficient reward deployment. The teacher is a large VLM that uses reasoning to infer rubric-aligned score distributions, and is trained with Group-wise Direct Score Optimization (GDSO), which combines policy-gradient rewards from distribution expectations with direct pointwise and pairwise supervision on score distributions and score gaps. The student is trained with Reasoning-Internalized Score Distillation (RISD), which transfers the teacher's reasoning-conditioned score distribution into a compact VLM without requiring explicit reasoning chains at inference time. On our internally annotated evaluation set, the 27B GDSO teacher reaches 89.6% human preference accuracy, outperforming SFT, RewardDance, and GRPO, while the 9B RISD student reaches 88.6%, outperforming the OPD baseline and closely matching the larger teacher. We further show that Z-Reward can serve as a differentiable reward signal for text-to-image optimization, yielding a 41.3% net human-preference improvement over the SFT baseline.

Large reasoning models (LRMs) improve complex problem-solving by generating long intermediate reasoning traces, but this substantially increases inference costs. NVFP4 inference offers a promising approach to reduce both computational and memory costs through hardware-supported low-precision execution. However, directly applying NVFP4 to LRMs introduces two practical limitations: reasoning accuracy degrades under quantization, and existing NVFP4 kernels do not fully realize latency benefits in small-batch autoregressive decoding. In this work, we analyze the effect of NVFP4 quantization on token-level uncertainty during reasoning. We show that quantization increases incorrect sampling at low-entropy symbolic tokens, while causing over-concentration on a small set of tokens in high-uncertainty reasoning steps. Based on this observation, we propose ReSET, a reasoning-step entropy-based temperature-scaling method that estimates step-level uncertainty online and adapts the decoding temperature using both token-level and step-level entropy signals. To address the latency gap, we further design a CUDA-core small-M NVFP4 kernel for latency-critical autoregressive decoding. Across reasoning benchmarks and model scales, ReSET improves NVFP4 reasoning accuracy by up to sim!2 points over the NVFP4 baseline. Our CUDA-core small-M kernel further improves latency-critical decoding, delivering up to 2.5!times kernel-level speedup over NVFP4 vLLM and approximately 2!times end-to-end decoding speedup over BF16. Code is available at https://github.com/aiha-lab/ReSET.

Diffusion language models (DLMs) expose their denoising trajectories, offering a natural handle for inference-time control; accordingly, an ideal hallucination mitigation framework should intervene during generation using this model-native signal rather than relying on an externally trained hallucination classifier. Toward this, we formulate commitment uncertainty localization: given a denoising trajectory, identify token positions whose cross-chain entropy exceeds an unsupervised threshold before factually unreliable commitments propagate into self-consistent but incorrect outputs. We introduce a suite of trajectory-level assessments, including a cross-chain divergence-at-hallucination (CDH) metric, for principled comparison of localization methods. We also introduce OSCAR, a training-free inference-time framework operationalizing this formulation. OSCAR runs N parallel denoising chains with randomized reveal orders, computes cross-chain Shannon entropy to detect high-uncertainty positions, and then performs targeted remasking conditioned on retrieved evidence. Ablations confirm that localization and correction contribute complementary gains, robust across N in {4, 8, 16}. On TriviaQA, HotpotQA, RAGTruth, and CommonsenseQA using LLaDA-8B and Dream-7B, OSCAR enhances generation quality by significantly reducing hallucinated content and improving factual accuracy through uncertainty-guided remasking, which also facilitates more effective integration of retrieved evidence. Its native entropy-based uncertainty signal surpasses that of specialized trained detectors, highlighting an inherent capacity of diffusion language models to identify factual uncertainty that is not present in the sequential token commitment structure of autoregressive models.

Large Language Models (LLMs) suffer significant performance degradation in multi-turn conversations when information is presented incrementally. Given that multi-turn conversations characterize everyday interactions with LLMs, this degradation poses a severe challenge to real world usability. We hypothesize that abrupt increases in model uncertainty signal misalignment in multi-turn LLM interactions, and we exploit this insight to dynamically realign conversational context. We introduce ERGO (Entropy-guided Resetting for Generation Optimization), which continuously quantifies internal uncertainty via Shannon entropy over next token distributions and triggers adaptive prompt consolidation when a sharp spike in entropy is detected. By treating uncertainty as a first class signal rather than a nuisance to eliminate, ERGO embraces variability in language and modeling, representing and responding to uncertainty. In multi-turn tasks with incrementally revealed instructions, ERGO yields a 56.6% average performance gain over standard baselines, increases aptitude (peak performance capability) by 24.7%, and decreases unreliability (variability in performance) by 35.3%, demonstrating that uncertainty aware interventions can improve both accuracy and reliability in conversational AI.

Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly used as judges to replace costly human preference labels in pairwise evaluation. Despite their practicality, LLM judges remain prone to miscalibration and systematic biases. This paper proposes SCOPE (Selective Conformal Optimized Pairwise Evaluation), a framework for selective pairwise judging with finite-sample statistical guarantees. Under exchangeability, SCOPE calibrates an acceptance threshold such that the error rate among non-abstained judgments is at most a user-specified level α. To provide SCOPE with a bias-neutral uncertainty signal, we introduce Bidirectional Preference Entropy (BPE), which queries the judge under both response positions, aggregates the implied preference probabilities to enforce invariance to response order, and converts the aggregated probability into an entropy-based uncertainty score. Across MT-Bench, RewardBench, and Chatbot Arena, BPE improves uncertainty quality over standard confidence proxies, providing a stronger selection signal that enables SCOPE to consistently meet the target risk level while retaining good coverage across judge scales. In particular, at α= 0.10, SCOPE consistently satisfies the risk bound across all benchmarks and judge scales (empirical risk approx 0.097 to 0.099), while retaining substantial coverage, reaching 0.89 on RewardBench with Qwen-14B and 0.98 on RewardBench with Qwen-32B. Compared to naïve baselines, SCOPE accepts up to 2.4times more judgments on MT-Bench with Qwen-7B under the same target risk constraint, demonstrating that BPE enables reliable and high-coverage LLM-based evaluation.

Ambient AI "scribe" systems promise to reduce clinical documentation burden, but automatic speech recognition (ASR) errors can remain unnoticed without careful review, and high-quality human reference transcripts are often unavailable for calibrating uncertainty. We investigate whether cross-model disagreement among heterogeneous ASR systems can act as a reference-free uncertainty signal to prioritize human verification in medical transcription workflows. Using 50 publicly available medical education audio clips (8 h 14 min), we transcribed each clip with eight ASR systems spanning commercial APIs and open-source engines. We aligned multi-model outputs, built consensus pseudo-references, and quantified token-level agreement using a majority-strength metric; we further characterized disagreements by type (content vs. punctuation/formatting) and assessed per-model agreement via leave-one-model-out (jackknife) consensus scoring. Inter-model reliability was low (ICC[2,1] = 0.131), indicating heterogeneous failure modes across systems. Across 76,398 evaluated token positions, 72.1% showed near-unanimous agreement (7-8 models), while 2.5% fell into high-risk bands (0-3 models), with high-risk mass varying from 0.7% to 11.4% across accent groups. Low-agreement regions were enriched for content disagreements, with the content fraction increasing from 53.9% to 73.9% across quintiles of high-risk mass. These results suggest that cross-model disagreement provides a sparse, localizable signal that can surface potentially unreliable transcript spans without human-verified references, enabling targeted review; clinical accuracy of flagged regions remains to be established.

Entropy-based deep reasoning has emerged as a promising direction for improving the reasoning capabilities of Large Language Models (LLMs), but existing methods often either increase response length indiscriminately or shorten responses at the cost of accuracy. To better balance this trade-off, we introduce Conditional Entropy Shaping (CES), a framework that dynamically controls token-level response entropy, enabling LLMs to produce concise solutions on simple problems while encouraging deeper exploration on hard ones. Built on DAPO, CES uses token-level entropy as an uncertainty signal and applies a conditional bidirectional policy: it penalizes high-entropy "forking point" tokens on correct reasoning paths to improve conciseness, and rewards them on incorrect paths to encourage exploration and error correction. We implement CES on DeepSeek-R1-Distill-7B and evaluate it on 12 mathematical benchmarks. CES consistently improves average accuracy while reducing response length relative to DAPO, and supplementary experiments show similar trends on a smaller 1.5B backbone and on out-of-domain benchmarks.

Evaluating generalist robot manipulation policies in the real world is expensive, slow, and difficult to scale. Action-conditioned video world models offer a scalable alternative by simulating policy rollouts. Autoregressive rollouts accumulate compounding errors, observations across multiple camera views must remain mutually consistent, and the evaluator must generalize to policies whose behaviors lie outside the training distribution. We address these challenges with SC3-Eval, a self-consistent video generation recipe that adapts a pre-trained video foundation model into an accurate policy evaluator by enforcing three complementary forms of consistency. First, forward-inverse dynamics consistency jointly trains the model to predict frames from actions and to recover actions from frames, anchoring generated rollouts to a physically plausible action manifold and counteracting the drift a forward-only model cannot penalize. Second, cross-view consistency trains the model to inpaint each camera view from the other, keeping the multi-camera observation coherent over long rollouts without any explicit memory mechanism. Third, test-time consistency reuses the inverse dynamics mode at inference as a per-action-chunk uncertainty signal that terminates rollouts whose generated frames drift away from the requested actions. We also demonstrate SC3-Eval rollouts reproduce the failure modes that policies exhibit in real-world rollouts, supporting fine-grained diagnostic comparison rather than aggregate ranking alone. Across seven real-world vision-language-action policies, SC3-Eval attains a closed-loop Pearson correlation of 0.929 and MMRV of 0.119, outperforming three strong prior video-model-based baselines, and generalizes to new tasks.

Retrieval-Augmented Generation (RAG) has emerged as the predominant paradigm for grounding Large Language Model outputs in factual knowledge, effectively mitigating hallucinations. However, conventional RAG systems operate under a "retrieve-always" assumption, querying vector databases for every input regardless of query complexity. This static approach incurs substantial computational overhead and inference latency, particularly problematic for high-throughput production deployments. We introduce L-RAG (Lazy Retrieval-Augmented Generation), an adaptive framework that implements hierarchical context management through entropy-based gating. L-RAG employs a two-tier architecture: queries are first processed with a compact document summary, and expensive chunk retrieval is triggered only when the model's predictive entropy exceeds a calibrated threshold, signaling genuine uncertainty. Through experiments on SQuAD 2.0 (N=500) using the Phi-2 model, we demonstrate that L-RAG provides a tunable accuracy-efficiency trade-off: at a conservative threshold (tau=0.5), L-RAG achieves 78.2% accuracy, matching Standard RAG (77.8%), with 8% retrieval reduction; at a balanced threshold (tau=1.0), retrieval reduction increases to 26% with modest accuracy trade-off (76.0%). Latency analysis shows that L-RAG saves 80-210ms per query when retrieval latency exceeds 500ms. Analysis of entropy distributions reveals statistically significant separation (p < 0.001) between correct predictions (H=1.72) and errors (H=2.20), validating entropy as a reliable uncertainty signal. L-RAG offers a practical, training-free approach toward more efficient RAG deployment, providing system architects with a configurable knob to balance accuracy and throughput requirements.

Current approaches to AI compliance treat conformity as a binary, audit-time verdict rather than a continuous, measurable property of production systems. We argue that this compliance fiction is structurally ill-suited to the requirements of the EU AI Act, which demands ongoing human oversight and the detection of emergent behavioural drift in deployed systems. We introduce governance from metrics, a principle whereby regulatory compliance is derived as a continuous signal from runtime observability rather than from static assessments. Building on this principle, we present govllm, an open-source framework implementing a governance-driven routing architecture in which model selection is determined by accumulated compliance scores rather than by latency or cost alone. Central to our approach is a panel of regulatory judges - LLM evaluators specialised per criterion (EU AI Act, GDPR, ANSSI, accessibility) - whose inter-judge disagreement we reframe not as noise but as a regulatory uncertainty signal warranting human arbitration. We validate this approach through a ground truth corpus of 49 annotated prompt/response pairs across five regulatory criteria, evaluated by four small language models (SLMs, 1.7B-7B parameters) running fully on-premise. Agreement rates range from 51.5% (mistral:7b) to 69.1% (phi4-mini), with no single model dominating across all criteria - empirically motivating the Profile-as-jury design. We further document three structural failure modes in small regulatory judges and a judge-specific position bias that degrades agreement by up to 25 percentage points across three question-order conditions (original, reversed, permuted). govllm is released as open-source software to support reproducible AI governance research.

Large language models (LLMs) often produce answers with high certainty even when they are incorrect, making reliable confidence estimation essential for deployment in real-world scenarios. Verbalized confidence, where models explicitly state their confidence in natural language, provides a flexible and user-facing uncertainty signal that can be applied even when token logits are unavailable. However, existing verbalized-confidence methods often optimize answer generation and confidence generation jointly, which can cause confidence-alignment objectives to interfere with answer accuracy. In this work, we propose a decoupled and order-aware framework for verbalized confidence calibration. Our method first generates an answer and then estimates confidence conditioned on the fixed question--answer pair, allowing confidence optimization without directly perturbing the answer-generation process. To align confidence with correctness likelihood, we construct a sampling-based surrogate from multiple model completions and optimize rank-based reinforcement learning objectives that encourage responses with higher estimated correctness likelihood to receive higher verbalized confidence. Experiments on reasoning and knowledge-intensive benchmarks show that our method improves calibration and failure prediction performance while largely preserving answer accuracy. These results demonstrate that verbalized confidence can be more reliably aligned by decoupling confidence estimation from answer generation and optimizing the relative ordering of confidence across responses.

End-to-end (E2E) driving has become a cornerstone of both industry deployment and academic research, offering a single learnable pipeline that maps multi-sensor inputs to actions while avoiding hand-engineered modules. However, the reliability of such pipelines strongly depends on how well they handle uncertainty: sensors are noisy, semantics can be ambiguous, and interaction with other road users is inherently stochastic. Uncertainty also appears in multiple forms: classification vs. localization, and, crucially, in both static map elements and dynamic agents. Existing E2E approaches model only static-map uncertainty, leaving planning vulnerable to overconfident and unreliable inputs. We present UniUncer, the first lightweight, unified uncertainty framework that jointly estimates and uses uncertainty for both static and dynamic scene elements inside an E2E planner. Concretely: (1) we convert deterministic heads to probabilistic Laplace regressors that output per-vertex location and scale for vectorized static and dynamic entities; (2) we introduce an uncertainty-fusion module that encodes these parameters and injects them into object/map queries to form uncertainty-aware queries; and (3) we design an uncertainty-aware gate that adaptively modulates reliance on historical inputs (ego status or temporal perception queries) based on current uncertainty levels. The design adds minimal overhead and drops throughput by only sim0.5 FPS while remaining plug-and-play for common E2E backbones. On nuScenes (open-loop), UniUncer reduces average L2 trajectory error by 7\%. On NavsimV2 (pseudo closed-loop), it improves overall EPDMS by 10.8\% and notable stage two gains in challenging, interaction-heavy scenes. Ablations confirm that dynamic-agent uncertainty and the uncertainty-aware gate are both necessary.

Large language models (LLMs) with Chain-of-Thought (CoT) reasoning have achieved strong performance across diverse tasks, including mathematics, coding, and general reasoning. A distinctive ability of these reasoning models is self-reflection: the ability to review and revise previous reasoning steps. While self-reflection enhances reasoning performance, it also increases inference cost. In this work, we study self-reflection through the lens of representation engineering. We segment the model's reasoning into steps, identify the steps corresponding to reflection, and extract a reflection direction in the latent space that governs this behavior. Using this direction, we propose a stepwise steering method that can control reflection frequency. We call our framework ReflCtrl. Our experiments show that (1) in many cases reflections are redundant, especially in stronger models (in our experiments, we can save up to 33.6 percent of reasoning tokens while preserving performance), and (2) the model's reflection behavior is highly correlated with an internal uncertainty signal, implying self-reflection may be controlled by the model's uncertainty.

Using a language model to score or rank candidate responses has become a scalable alternative to human evaluation in reinforcement learning from human feedback (RLHF) pipelines, benchmarking, and application layer evaluations. However, output reliability depends heavily on prompting and aggregation strategy. We present an empirical investigation of four drop-in techniques -- ensemble scoring, task-specific criteria injection, calibration context, and adaptive model escalation -- for improving LLM judge accuracy on RewardBench 2, with a unifying lens of noise control on the stochastic judge: ensembling as Monte Carlo averaging over per-call noise, criteria injection as between-response discrimination sharpening, and per-response score variance as an uncertainty signal. Ensemble scoring and task-specific criteria injection (the latter virtually cost free) together reach up to 85.8% accuracy, +13.5pp over baseline. Calibration context and adaptive model escalation also improve over baseline but are dominated by criteria + ensembling on the cost-accuracy Pareto frontier. Small models benefit disproportionately from ensembling, making high-accuracy LLM judges accessible at low cost. We show that these techniques generalise across model providers, evaluating on both OpenAI GPT and Anthropic Claude families.

Misclassification detection is an important problem in machine learning, as it allows for the identification of instances where the model's predictions are unreliable. However, conventional uncertainty measures such as Shannon entropy do not provide an effective way to infer the real uncertainty associated with the model's predictions. In this paper, we introduce a novel data-driven measure of uncertainty relative to an observer for misclassification detection. By learning patterns in the distribution of soft-predictions, our uncertainty measure can identify misclassified samples based on the predicted class probabilities. Interestingly, according to the proposed measure, soft-predictions corresponding to misclassified instances can carry a large amount of uncertainty, even though they may have low Shannon entropy. We demonstrate empirical improvements over multiple image classification tasks, outperforming state-of-the-art misclassification detection methods.

Multimodal AI models are increasingly used in fields like healthcare, finance, and autonomous driving, where information is drawn from multiple sources or modalities such as images, texts, audios, videos. However, effectively managing uncertainty - arising from noise, insufficient evidence, or conflicts between modalities - is crucial for reliable decision-making. Current uncertainty-aware machine learning methods leveraging, for example, evidence averaging, or evidence accumulation underestimate uncertainties in high-conflict scenarios. Moreover, the state-of-the-art evidence averaging strategy is not order invariant and fails to scale to multiple modalities. To address these challenges, we propose a novel multimodal learning method with order-invariant evidence fusion and introduce a conflict-based discounting mechanism that reallocates uncertain mass when unreliable modalities are detected. We provide both theoretical analysis and experimental validation, demonstrating that unlike the previous work, the proposed approach effectively distinguishes between conflicting and non-conflicting samples based on the provided uncertainty estimates, and outperforms the previous models in uncertainty-based conflict detection.

Modern machine learning methods including deep learning have achieved great success in predictive accuracy for supervised learning tasks, but may still fall short in giving useful estimates of their predictive {\em uncertainty}. Quantifying uncertainty is especially critical in real-world settings, which often involve input distributions that are shifted from the training distribution due to a variety of factors including sample bias and non-stationarity. In such settings, well calibrated uncertainty estimates convey information about when a model's output should (or should not) be trusted. Many probabilistic deep learning methods, including Bayesian-and non-Bayesian methods, have been proposed in the literature for quantifying predictive uncertainty, but to our knowledge there has not previously been a rigorous large-scale empirical comparison of these methods under dataset shift. We present a large-scale benchmark of existing state-of-the-art methods on classification problems and investigate the effect of dataset shift on accuracy and calibration. We find that traditional post-hoc calibration does indeed fall short, as do several other previous methods. However, some methods that marginalize over models give surprisingly strong results across a broad spectrum of tasks.

We consider the problem of performing Bayesian inference in probabilistic models where observations are accompanied by uncertainty, referred to as "uncertain evidence." We explore how to interpret uncertain evidence, and by extension the importance of proper interpretation as it pertains to inference about latent variables. We consider a recently-proposed method "distributional evidence" as well as revisit two older methods: Jeffrey's rule and virtual evidence. We devise guidelines on how to account for uncertain evidence and we provide new insights, particularly regarding consistency. To showcase the impact of different interpretations of the same uncertain evidence, we carry out experiments in which one interpretation is defined as "correct." We then compare inference results from each different interpretation illustrating the importance of careful consideration of uncertain evidence.

While Large Language Models (LLMs) demonstrate impressive capabilities, they still struggle with generating factually incorrect content (i.e., hallucinations). A promising approach to mitigate this issue is enabling models to express uncertainty when unsure. Previous research on uncertainty modeling has primarily focused on short-form QA, but realworld applications often require much longer responses. In this work, we introduce the task of Long-form Generation with Uncertainty(LoGU). We identify two key challenges: Uncertainty Suppression, where models hesitate to express uncertainty, and Uncertainty Misalignment, where models convey uncertainty inaccurately. To tackle these challenges, we propose a refinement-based data collection framework and a two-stage training pipeline. Our framework adopts a divide-and-conquer strategy, refining uncertainty based on atomic claims. The collected data are then used in training through supervised fine-tuning (SFT) and direct preference optimization (DPO) to enhance uncertainty expression. Extensive experiments on three long-form instruction following datasets show that our method significantly improves accuracy, reduces hallucinations, and maintains the comprehensiveness of responses.

This article investigates signal estimation in wireless transmission (i.e., receive beamforming) from the perspective of statistical machine learning, where the transmit signals may be from an integrated sensing and communication system; that is, 1) signals may be not only discrete constellation points but also arbitrary complex values; 2) signals may be spatially correlated. Particular attention is paid to handling various uncertainties such as the uncertainty of the transmit signal covariance, the uncertainty of the channel matrix, the uncertainty of the channel noise covariance, the existence of channel impulse noises, and the limited sample size of pilots. To proceed, a distributionally robust machine learning framework that is insensitive to the above uncertainties is proposed, which reveals that channel estimation is not a necessary operation. For optimal linear estimation, the proposed framework includes several existing beamformers as special cases such as diagonal loading and eigenvalue thresholding. For optimal nonlinear estimation, estimators are limited in reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces and neural network function spaces, and corresponding uncertainty-aware solutions (e.g., kernelized diagonal loading) are derived. In addition, we prove that the ridge and kernel ridge regression methods in machine learning are distributionally robust against diagonal perturbation in feature covariance.

Predictions made by deep learning models are prone to data perturbations, adversarial attacks, and out-of-distribution inputs. To build a trusted AI system, it is therefore critical to accurately quantify the prediction uncertainties. While current efforts focus on improving uncertainty quantification accuracy and efficiency, there is a need to identify uncertainty sources and take actions to mitigate their effects on predictions. Therefore, we propose to develop explainable and actionable Bayesian deep learning methods to not only perform accurate uncertainty quantification but also explain the uncertainties, identify their sources, and propose strategies to mitigate the uncertainty impacts. Specifically, we introduce a gradient-based uncertainty attribution method to identify the most problematic regions of the input that contribute to the prediction uncertainty. Compared to existing methods, the proposed UA-Backprop has competitive accuracy, relaxed assumptions, and high efficiency. Moreover, we propose an uncertainty mitigation strategy that leverages the attribution results as attention to further improve the model performance. Both qualitative and quantitative evaluations are conducted to demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposed methods.

Accurate estimation of uncertainty in deep learning is critical for deploying models in high-stakes domains such as medical diagnosis and autonomous decision-making, where overconfident predictions can lead to harmful outcomes. In practice, understanding the reason behind a model's uncertainty and the type of uncertainty it represents can support risk-aware decisions, enhance user trust, and guide additional data collection. However, many existing methods only address a single type of uncertainty or require modifications and retraining of the base model, making them difficult to adopt in real-world systems. We introduce CUPID (Comprehensive Uncertainty Plug-in estImation moDel), a general-purpose module that jointly estimates aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty without modifying or retraining the base model. CUPID can be flexibly inserted into any layer of a pretrained network. It models aleatoric uncertainty through a learned Bayesian identity mapping and captures epistemic uncertainty by analyzing the model's internal responses to structured perturbations. We evaluate CUPID across a range of tasks, including classification, regression, and out-of-distribution detection. The results show that it consistently delivers competitive performance while offering layer-wise insights into the origins of uncertainty. By making uncertainty estimation modular, interpretable, and model-agnostic, CUPID supports more transparent and trustworthy AI. Related code and data are available at https://github.com/a-Fomalhaut-a/CUPID.

Understanding uncertainty in chain-of-thought reasoning is critical for reliable deployment of large language models. In this work, we propose a simple yet effective diagnostic approach based on trajectory shape rather than scalar magnitude. We show that this signal is practical, interpretable, and inexpensive to obtain in black-box settings, while remaining robust across models and datasets. Through extensive ablations and cross-domain replications, we demonstrate its utility for selective prediction and triage. Our findings offer a generalizable insight into uncertainty dynamics in reasoning tasks, with particular focus on numeric and discrete-answer settings.

A robust decision-making process must take into account uncertainty, especially when the choice involves inherent risks. Because artificial intelligence (AI) systems are increasingly integrated into decision-making workflows, managing uncertainty relies more and more on the metacognitive capabilities of these systems; i.e, their ability to assess the reliability of and regulate their own decisions. Hence, it is crucial to employ robust methods to measure the metacognitive abilities of AI. This paper is primarily a methodological contribution arguing for the adoption of the meta-d' framework as the gold standard for assessing the metacognitive sensitivity of AIs--the ability to generate confidence ratings that distinguish correct from incorrect responses. Moreover, we propose to leverage signal detection theory (SDT) to measure the ability of AIs to spontaneously regulate their decisions based on uncertainty and risk. To demonstrate the practical utility of these psychophysical frameworks, we conduct two series of experiments on three large language models (LLMs)--GPT-5, DeepSeek-V3.2-Exp, and Mistral-Medium-2508.

In the past couple of years, various approaches to representing and quantifying different types of predictive uncertainty in machine learning, notably in the setting of classification, have been proposed on the basis of second-order probability distributions, i.e., predictions in the form of distributions on probability distributions. A completely conclusive solution has not yet been found, however, as shown by recent criticisms of commonly used uncertainty measures associated with second-order distributions, identifying undesirable theoretical properties of these measures. In light of these criticisms, we propose a set of formal criteria that meaningful uncertainty measures for predictive uncertainty based on second-order distributions should obey. Moreover, we provide a general framework for developing uncertainty measures to account for these criteria, and offer an instantiation based on the Wasserstein distance, for which we prove that all criteria are satisfied.

We explore uncertainty quantification in large language models (LLMs), with the goal to identify when uncertainty in responses given a query is large. We simultaneously consider both epistemic and aleatoric uncertainties, where the former comes from the lack of knowledge about the ground truth (such as about facts or the language), and the latter comes from irreducible randomness (such as multiple possible answers). In particular, we derive an information-theoretic metric that allows to reliably detect when only epistemic uncertainty is large, in which case the output of the model is unreliable. This condition can be computed based solely on the output of the model obtained simply by some special iterative prompting based on the previous responses. Such quantification, for instance, allows to detect hallucinations (cases when epistemic uncertainty is high) in both single- and multi-answer responses. This is in contrast to many standard uncertainty quantification strategies (such as thresholding the log-likelihood of a response) where hallucinations in the multi-answer case cannot be detected. We conduct a series of experiments which demonstrate the advantage of our formulation. Further, our investigations shed some light on how the probabilities assigned to a given output by an LLM can be amplified by iterative prompting, which might be of independent interest.

Reliable estimation of predictive uncertainty is crucial for machine learning applications, particularly in high-stakes scenarios where hedging against risks is essential. Despite its significance, there is no universal agreement on how to best quantify predictive uncertainty. In this work, we revisit core concepts to propose a framework for information-theoretic measures of predictive uncertainty. Our proposed framework categorizes predictive uncertainty measures according to two factors: (I) The predicting model (II) The approximation of the true predictive distribution. Examining all possible combinations of these two factors, we derive a set of predictive uncertainty measures that includes both known and newly introduced ones. We extensively evaluate these measures across a broad set of tasks, identifying conditions under which certain measures excel. Our findings show the importance of aligning the choice of uncertainty measure with the predicting model on in-distribution (ID) data, the limitations of epistemic uncertainty measures for out-of-distribution (OOD) data, and that the disentanglement between measures varies substantially between ID and OOD data. Together, these insights provide a more comprehensive understanding of predictive uncertainty measures, revealing their implicit assumptions and relationships.

Calibrated uncertainty estimates in machine learning are crucial to many fields such as autonomous vehicles, medicine, and weather and climate forecasting. While there is extensive literature on uncertainty calibration for classification, the classification findings do not always translate to regression. As a result, modern models for predicting uncertainty in regression settings typically produce uncalibrated and overconfident estimates. To address these gaps, we present a calibration method for regression settings that does not assume a particular uncertainty distribution over the error: Calibrating Regression Uncertainty Distributions Empirically (CRUDE). CRUDE makes the weaker assumption that error distributions have a constant arbitrary shape across the output space, shifted by predicted mean and scaled by predicted standard deviation. We detail a theoretical connection between CRUDE and conformal inference. Across an extensive set of regression tasks, CRUDE demonstrates consistently sharper, better calibrated, and more accurate uncertainty estimates than state-of-the-art techniques.

Large Language Models (LLMs) often generate outputs that lack grounding in real-world facts, a phenomenon known as hallucinations. Prior research has associated hallucinations with model uncertainty, leveraging this relationship for hallucination detection and mitigation. In this paper, we challenge the underlying assumption that all hallucinations are associated with uncertainty. Using knowledge detection and uncertainty measurement methods, we demonstrate that models can hallucinate with high certainty even when they have the correct knowledge. We further show that high-certainty hallucinations are consistent across models and datasets, distinctive enough to be singled out, and challenge existing mitigation methods. Our findings reveal an overlooked aspect of hallucinations, emphasizing the need to understand their origins and improve mitigation strategies to enhance LLM safety. The code is available at https://github.com/technion-cs-nlp/Trust_me_Im_wrong .

We investigate the problem of determining the predictive confidence (or, conversely, uncertainty) of a neural classifier through the lens of low-resource languages. By training models on sub-sampled datasets in three different languages, we assess the quality of estimates from a wide array of approaches and their dependence on the amount of available data. We find that while approaches based on pre-trained models and ensembles achieve the best results overall, the quality of uncertainty estimates can surprisingly suffer with more data. We also perform a qualitative analysis of uncertainties on sequences, discovering that a model's total uncertainty seems to be influenced to a large degree by its data uncertainty, not model uncertainty. All model implementations are open-sourced in a software package.

Researchers in explainable artificial intelligence have developed numerous methods for helping users understand the predictions of complex supervised learning models. By contrast, explaining the uncertainty of model outputs has received relatively little attention. We adapt the popular Shapley value framework to explain various types of predictive uncertainty, quantifying each feature's contribution to the conditional entropy of individual model outputs. We consider games with modified characteristic functions and find deep connections between the resulting Shapley values and fundamental quantities from information theory and conditional independence testing. We outline inference procedures for finite sample error rate control with provable guarantees, and implement efficient algorithms that perform well in a range of experiments on real and simulated data. Our method has applications to covariate shift detection, active learning, feature selection, and active feature-value acquisition.

Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) is essential for creating trustworthy machine learning models. Recent years have seen a steep rise in UQ methods that can flag suspicious examples, however, it is often unclear what exactly these methods identify. In this work, we propose a framework for categorizing uncertain examples flagged by UQ methods in classification tasks. We introduce the confusion density matrix -- a kernel-based approximation of the misclassification density -- and use this to categorize suspicious examples identified by a given uncertainty method into three classes: out-of-distribution (OOD) examples, boundary (Bnd) examples, and examples in regions of high in-distribution misclassification (IDM). Through extensive experiments, we show that our framework provides a new and distinct perspective for assessing differences between uncertainty quantification methods, thereby forming a valuable assessment benchmark.

Multimodal semantic understanding often has to deal with uncertainty, which means the obtained messages tend to refer to multiple targets. Such uncertainty is problematic for our interpretation, including inter- and intra-modal uncertainty. Little effort has studied the modeling of this uncertainty, particularly in pre-training on unlabeled datasets and fine-tuning in task-specific downstream datasets. In this paper, we project the representations of all modalities as probabilistic distributions via a Probability Distribution Encoder (PDE) by utilizing sequence-level interactions. Compared to the existing deterministic methods, such uncertainty modeling can convey richer multimodal semantic information and more complex relationships. Furthermore, we integrate uncertainty modeling with popular pre-training frameworks and propose suitable pre-training tasks: Distribution-based Vision-Language Contrastive learning (D-VLC), Distribution-based Masked Language Modeling (D-MLM), and Distribution-based Image-Text Matching (D-ITM). The fine-tuned models are applied to challenging downstream tasks, including image-text retrieval, visual question answering, visual reasoning, and visual entailment, and achieve state-of-the-art results.

The progress in modelling time series and, more generally, sequences of structured data has recently revamped research in anomaly detection. The task stands for identifying abnormal behaviors in financial series, IT systems, aerospace measurements, and the medical domain, where anomaly detection may aid in isolating cases of depression and attend the elderly. Anomaly detection in time series is a complex task since anomalies are rare due to highly non-linear temporal correlations and since the definition of anomalous is sometimes subjective. Here we propose the novel use of Hyperbolic uncertainty for Anomaly Detection (HypAD). HypAD learns self-supervisedly to reconstruct the input signal. We adopt best practices from the state-of-the-art to encode the sequence by an LSTM, jointly learned with a decoder to reconstruct the signal, with the aid of GAN critics. Uncertainty is estimated end-to-end by means of a hyperbolic neural network. By using uncertainty, HypAD may assess whether it is certain about the input signal but it fails to reconstruct it because this is anomalous; or whether the reconstruction error does not necessarily imply anomaly, as the model is uncertain, e.g. a complex but regular input signal. The novel key idea is that a detectable anomaly is one where the model is certain but it predicts wrongly. HypAD outperforms the current state-of-the-art for univariate anomaly detection on established benchmarks based on data from NASA, Yahoo, Numenta, Amazon, and Twitter. It also yields state-of-the-art performance on a multivariate dataset of anomaly activities in elderly home residences, and it outperforms the baseline on SWaT. Overall, HypAD yields the lowest false alarms at the best performance rate, thanks to successfully identifying detectable anomalies.

Uncertainty estimation is a key factor that makes deep learning reliable in practical applications. Recently proposed evidential neural networks explicitly account for different uncertainties by treating the network's outputs as evidence to parameterize the Dirichlet distribution, and achieve impressive performance in uncertainty estimation. However, for high data uncertainty samples but annotated with the one-hot label, the evidence-learning process for those mislabeled classes is over-penalized and remains hindered. To address this problem, we propose a novel method, Fisher Information-based Evidential Deep Learning (I-EDL). In particular, we introduce Fisher Information Matrix (FIM) to measure the informativeness of evidence carried by each sample, according to which we can dynamically reweight the objective loss terms to make the network more focused on the representation learning of uncertain classes. The generalization ability of our network is further improved by optimizing the PAC-Bayesian bound. As demonstrated empirically, our proposed method consistently outperforms traditional EDL-related algorithms in multiple uncertainty estimation tasks, especially in the more challenging few-shot classification settings.

Contrastively trained encoders have recently been proven to invert the data-generating process: they encode each input, e.g., an image, into the true latent vector that generated the image (Zimmermann et al., 2021). However, real-world observations often have inherent ambiguities. For instance, images may be blurred or only show a 2D view of a 3D object, so multiple latents could have generated them. This makes the true posterior for the latent vector probabilistic with heteroscedastic uncertainty. In this setup, we extend the common InfoNCE objective and encoders to predict latent distributions instead of points. We prove that these distributions recover the correct posteriors of the data-generating process, including its level of aleatoric uncertainty, up to a rotation of the latent space. In addition to providing calibrated uncertainty estimates, these posteriors allow the computation of credible intervals in image retrieval. They comprise images with the same latent as a given query, subject to its uncertainty. Code is available at https://github.com/mkirchhof/Probabilistic_Contrastive_Learning

Despite increasingly fluent, relevant, and coherent language generation, major gaps remain between how humans and machines use language. We argue that a key dimension that is missing from our understanding of language models (LMs) is the model's ability to interpret and generate expressions of uncertainty. Whether it be the weatherperson announcing a chance of rain or a doctor giving a diagnosis, information is often not black-and-white and expressions of uncertainty provide nuance to support human-decision making. The increasing deployment of LMs in the wild motivates us to investigate whether LMs are capable of interpreting expressions of uncertainty and how LMs' behaviors change when learning to emit their own expressions of uncertainty. When injecting expressions of uncertainty into prompts (e.g., "I think the answer is..."), we discover that GPT3's generations vary upwards of 80% in accuracy based on the expression used. We analyze the linguistic characteristics of these expressions and find a drop in accuracy when naturalistic expressions of certainty are present. We find similar effects when teaching models to emit their own expressions of uncertainty, where model calibration suffers when teaching models to emit certainty rather than uncertainty. Together, these results highlight the challenges of building LMs that interpret and generate trustworthy expressions of uncertainty.

Reliable probability estimation is of crucial importance in many real-world applications where there is inherent (aleatoric) uncertainty. Probability-estimation models are trained on observed outcomes (e.g. whether it has rained or not, or whether a patient has died or not), because the ground-truth probabilities of the events of interest are typically unknown. The problem is therefore analogous to binary classification, with the difference that the objective is to estimate probabilities rather than predicting the specific outcome. This work investigates probability estimation from high-dimensional data using deep neural networks. There exist several methods to improve the probabilities generated by these models but they mostly focus on model (epistemic) uncertainty. For problems with inherent uncertainty, it is challenging to evaluate performance without access to ground-truth probabilities. To address this, we build a synthetic dataset to study and compare different computable metrics. We evaluate existing methods on the synthetic data as well as on three real-world probability estimation tasks, all of which involve inherent uncertainty: precipitation forecasting from radar images, predicting cancer patient survival from histopathology images, and predicting car crashes from dashcam videos. We also give a theoretical analysis of a model for high-dimensional probability estimation which reproduces several of the phenomena evinced in our experiments. Finally, we propose a new method for probability estimation using neural networks, which modifies the training process to promote output probabilities that are consistent with empirical probabilities computed from the data. The method outperforms existing approaches on most metrics on the simulated as well as real-world data.

Deep Learning-based image super-resolution (SR) has been gaining traction with the aid of Generative Adversarial Networks. Models like SRGAN and ESRGAN are constantly ranked between the best image SR tools. However, they lack principled ways for estimating predictive uncertainty. In the present work, we enhance these models using Monte Carlo-Dropout and Deep Ensemble, allowing the computation of predictive uncertainty. When coupled with a prediction, uncertainty estimates can provide more information to the model users, highlighting pixels where the SR output might be uncertain, hence potentially inaccurate, if these estimates were to be reliable. Our findings suggest that these uncertainty estimates are decently calibrated and can hence fulfill this goal, while providing no performance drop with respect to the corresponding models without uncertainty estimation.

Uncertainty quantification has received increasing attention in machine learning in the recent past. In particular, a distinction between aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty has been found useful in this regard. The latter refers to the learner's (lack of) knowledge and appears to be especially difficult to measure and quantify. In this paper, we analyse a recent proposal based on the idea of a second-order learner, which yields predictions in the form of distributions over probability distributions. While standard (first-order) learners can be trained to predict accurate probabilities, namely by minimising suitable loss functions on sample data, we show that loss minimisation does not work for second-order predictors: The loss functions proposed for inducing such predictors do not incentivise the learner to represent its epistemic uncertainty in a faithful way.

Predicting not only the target but also an accurate measure of uncertainty is important for many machine learning applications and in particular safety-critical ones. In this work we study the calibration of uncertainty prediction for regression tasks which often arise in real-world systems. We show that the existing definition for calibration of a regression uncertainty [Kuleshov et al. 2018] has severe limitations in distinguishing informative from non-informative uncertainty predictions. We propose a new definition that escapes this caveat and an evaluation method using a simple histogram-based approach. Our method clusters examples with similar uncertainty prediction and compares the prediction with the empirical uncertainty on these examples. We also propose a simple, scaling-based calibration method that preforms as well as much more complex ones. We show results on both a synthetic, controlled problem and on the object detection bounding-box regression task using the COCO and KITTI datasets.

Uncertainty estimation is an essential and heavily-studied component for the reliable application of semantic segmentation methods. While various studies exist claiming methodological advances on the one hand, and successful application on the other hand, the field is currently hampered by a gap between theory and practice leaving fundamental questions unanswered: Can data-related and model-related uncertainty really be separated in practice? Which components of an uncertainty method are essential for real-world performance? Which uncertainty method works well for which application? In this work, we link this research gap to a lack of systematic and comprehensive evaluation of uncertainty methods. Specifically, we identify three key pitfalls in current literature and present an evaluation framework that bridges the research gap by providing 1) a controlled environment for studying data ambiguities as well as distribution shifts, 2) systematic ablations of relevant method components, and 3) test-beds for the five predominant uncertainty applications: OoD-detection, active learning, failure detection, calibration, and ambiguity modeling. Empirical results on simulated as well as real-world data demonstrate how the proposed framework is able to answer the predominant questions in the field revealing for instance that 1) separation of uncertainty types works on simulated data but does not necessarily translate to real-world data, 2) aggregation of scores is a crucial but currently neglected component of uncertainty methods, 3) While ensembles are performing most robustly across the different downstream tasks and settings, test-time augmentation often constitutes a light-weight alternative. Code is at: https://github.com/IML-DKFZ/values

There are two major types of uncertainty one can model. Aleatoric uncertainty captures noise inherent in the observations. On the other hand, epistemic uncertainty accounts for uncertainty in the model -- uncertainty which can be explained away given enough data. Traditionally it has been difficult to model epistemic uncertainty in computer vision, but with new Bayesian deep learning tools this is now possible. We study the benefits of modeling epistemic vs. aleatoric uncertainty in Bayesian deep learning models for vision tasks. For this we present a Bayesian deep learning framework combining input-dependent aleatoric uncertainty together with epistemic uncertainty. We study models under the framework with per-pixel semantic segmentation and depth regression tasks. Further, our explicit uncertainty formulation leads to new loss functions for these tasks, which can be interpreted as learned attenuation. This makes the loss more robust to noisy data, also giving new state-of-the-art results on segmentation and depth regression benchmarks.

A crucial requirement for reliable deployment of deep learning models for safety-critical applications is the ability to identify out-of-distribution (OOD) data points, samples which differ from the training data and on which a model might underperform. Previous work has attempted to tackle this problem using uncertainty estimation techniques. However, there is empirical evidence that a large family of these techniques do not detect OOD reliably in classification tasks. This paper gives a theoretical explanation for said experimental findings and illustrates it on synthetic data. We prove that such techniques are not able to reliably identify OOD samples in a classification setting, since their level of confidence is generalized to unseen areas of the feature space. This result stems from the interplay between the representation of ReLU networks as piece-wise affine transformations, the saturating nature of activation functions like softmax, and the most widely-used uncertainty metrics.

We propose a novel method to capture data points near decision boundary in neural network that are often referred to a specific type of uncertainty. In our approach, we sought to perform uncertainty estimation based on the idea of adversarial attack method. In this paper, uncertainty estimates are derived from the input perturbations, unlike previous studies that provide perturbations on the model's parameters as in Bayesian approach. We are able to produce uncertainty with couple of perturbations on the inputs. Interestingly, we apply the proposed method to datasets derived from blockchain. We compare the performance of model uncertainty with the most recent uncertainty methods. We show that the proposed method has revealed a significant outperformance over other methods and provided less risk to capture model uncertainty in machine learning.

Popular approaches for quantifying predictive uncertainty in deep neural networks often involve distributions over weights or multiple models, for instance via Markov Chain sampling, ensembling, or Monte Carlo dropout. These techniques usually incur overhead by having to train multiple model instances or do not produce very diverse predictions. This comprehensive and extensive survey aims to familiarize the reader with an alternative class of models based on the concept of Evidential Deep Learning: For unfamiliar data, they aim to admit "what they don't know", and fall back onto a prior belief. Furthermore, they allow uncertainty estimation in a single model and forward pass by parameterizing distributions over distributions. This survey recapitulates existing works, focusing on the implementation in a classification setting, before surveying the application of the same paradigm to regression. We also reflect on the strengths and weaknesses compared to other existing methods and provide the most fundamental derivations using a unified notation to aid future research.

Fetal ultrasound standard-plane classification underpins reliable prenatal biometry and anomaly screening, yet real-world deployment is limited by domain shift, image noise, and poor calibration of predicted probabilities. This paper presents a practical framework for uncertainty-calibrated explainable AI in fetal plane classification. We synthesize uncertainty estimation methods (Monte Carlo dropout, deep ensembles, evidential learning, and conformal prediction) with post-hoc and uncertainty-aware explanations (Grad-CAM variants, LIME-style local surrogates, and uncertainty-weighted multi-resolution activation maps), and we map these components to a clinician-facing workflow. Using FETAL_PLANES_DB as a reference benchmark, we define a reporting protocol that couples accuracy with calibration and selective prediction, including expected calibration error, Brier score, coverage-risk curves, and structured error analysis with explanations. We also discuss integration points for quality control and human-in-the-loop review, where uncertainty flags trigger re-acquisition or expert confirmation. The goal is a reproducible, clinically aligned blueprint for building fetal ultrasound classifiers whose confidence and explanations remain trustworthy under noisy acquisition conditions.

In real-world scenarios, typical visual recognition systems could fail under two major causes, i.e., the misclassification between known classes and the excusable misbehavior on unknown-class images. To tackle these deficiencies, flexible visual recognition should dynamically predict multiple classes when they are unconfident between choices and reject making predictions when the input is entirely out of the training distribution. Two challenges emerge along with this novel task. First, prediction uncertainty should be separately quantified as confusion depicting inter-class uncertainties and ignorance identifying out-of-distribution samples. Second, both confusion and ignorance should be comparable between samples to enable effective decision-making. In this paper, we propose to model these two sources of uncertainty explicitly with the theory of Subjective Logic. Regarding recognition as an evidence-collecting process, confusion is then defined as conflicting evidence, while ignorance is the absence of evidence. By predicting Dirichlet concentration parameters for singletons, comprehensive subjective opinions, including confusion and ignorance, could be achieved via further evidence combinations. Through a series of experiments on synthetic data analysis, visual recognition, and open-set detection, we demonstrate the effectiveness of our methods in quantifying two sources of uncertainties and dealing with flexible recognition.

In this paper, we focus on the task of conditional image generation, where an image is synthesized according to user instructions. The critical challenge underpinning this task is ensuring both the fidelity of the generated images and their semantic alignment with the provided conditions. To tackle this issue, previous studies have employed supervised perceptual losses derived from pre-trained models, i.e., reward models, to enforce alignment between the condition and the generated result. However, we observe one inherent shortcoming: considering the diversity of synthesized images, the reward model usually provides inaccurate feedback when encountering newly generated data, which can undermine the training process. To address this limitation, we propose an uncertainty-aware reward modeling, called Ctrl-U, including uncertainty estimation and uncertainty-aware regularization, designed to reduce the adverse effects of imprecise feedback from the reward model. Given the inherent cognitive uncertainty within reward models, even images generated under identical conditions often result in a relatively large discrepancy in reward loss. Inspired by the observation, we explicitly leverage such prediction variance as an uncertainty indicator. Based on the uncertainty estimation, we regularize the model training by adaptively rectifying the reward. In particular, rewards with lower uncertainty receive higher loss weights, while those with higher uncertainty are given reduced weights to allow for larger variability. The proposed uncertainty regularization facilitates reward fine-tuning through consistency construction. Extensive experiments validate the effectiveness of our methodology in improving the controllability and generation quality, as well as its scalability across diverse conditional scenarios. Code will soon be available at https://grenoble-zhang.github.io/Ctrl-U-Page/.

Widely deployed large language models (LLMs) can produce convincing yet incorrect outputs, potentially misleading users who may rely on them as if they were correct. To reduce such overreliance, there have been calls for LLMs to communicate their uncertainty to end users. However, there has been little empirical work examining how users perceive and act upon LLMs' expressions of uncertainty. We explore this question through a large-scale, pre-registered, human-subject experiment (N=404) in which participants answer medical questions with or without access to responses from a fictional LLM-infused search engine. Using both behavioral and self-reported measures, we examine how different natural language expressions of uncertainty impact participants' reliance, trust, and overall task performance. We find that first-person expressions (e.g., "I'm not sure, but...") decrease participants' confidence in the system and tendency to agree with the system's answers, while increasing participants' accuracy. An exploratory analysis suggests that this increase can be attributed to reduced (but not fully eliminated) overreliance on incorrect answers. While we observe similar effects for uncertainty expressed from a general perspective (e.g., "It's not clear, but..."), these effects are weaker and not statistically significant. Our findings suggest that using natural language expressions of uncertainty may be an effective approach for reducing overreliance on LLMs, but that the precise language used matters. This highlights the importance of user testing before deploying LLMs at scale.

Monitoring machine learning models once they are deployed is challenging. It is even more challenging to decide when to retrain models in real-case scenarios when labeled data is beyond reach, and monitoring performance metrics becomes unfeasible. In this work, we use non-parametric bootstrapped uncertainty estimates and SHAP values to provide explainable uncertainty estimation as a technique that aims to monitor the deterioration of machine learning models in deployment environments, as well as determine the source of model deterioration when target labels are not available. Classical methods are purely aimed at detecting distribution shift, which can lead to false positives in the sense that the model has not deteriorated despite a shift in the data distribution. To estimate model uncertainty we construct prediction intervals using a novel bootstrap method, which improves upon the work of Kumar & Srivastava (2012). We show that both our model deterioration detection system as well as our uncertainty estimation method achieve better performance than the current state-of-the-art. Finally, we use explainable AI techniques to gain an understanding of the drivers of model deterioration. We release an open source Python package, doubt, which implements our proposed methods, as well as the code used to reproduce our experiments.

Epistemic Uncertainty is a measure of the lack of knowledge of a learner which diminishes with more evidence. While existing work focuses on using the variance of the Bayesian posterior due to parameter uncertainty as a measure of epistemic uncertainty, we argue that this does not capture the part of lack of knowledge induced by model misspecification. We discuss how the excess risk, which is the gap between the generalization error of a predictor and the Bayes predictor, is a sound measure of epistemic uncertainty which captures the effect of model misspecification. We thus propose a principled framework for directly estimating the excess risk by learning a secondary predictor for the generalization error and subtracting an estimate of aleatoric uncertainty, i.e., intrinsic unpredictability. We discuss the merits of this novel measure of epistemic uncertainty, and highlight how it differs from variance-based measures of epistemic uncertainty and addresses its major pitfall. Our framework, Direct Epistemic Uncertainty Prediction (DEUP) is particularly interesting in interactive learning environments, where the learner is allowed to acquire novel examples in each round. Through a wide set of experiments, we illustrate how existing methods in sequential model optimization can be improved with epistemic uncertainty estimates from DEUP, and how DEUP can be used to drive exploration in reinforcement learning. We also evaluate the quality of uncertainty estimates from DEUP for probabilistic image classification and predicting synergies of drug combinations.

Electroencephalography (EEG) is a cornerstone of brain-computer interfaces and clinical neuroscience, yet deep learning models are typically trained and evaluated under a single, unreported preprocessing pipeline. We formalize preprocessing choices as a counterfactual intervention space and show that EEG predictions are surprisingly unstable under this space: across six datasets spanning four paradigms, up to 42% of trial-level predictions flip when only the preprocessing changes, a variability that standard uncertainty methods do not explicitly quantify because they condition on a fixed preprocessing pipeline. We provide three tools to make this instability measurable, decomposable, and reducible. First, a Walsh-Hadamard decomposition of the 2^7 pipeline space reveals that sensitivity is near-additive in practice under the binary intervention design, enabling efficient step-by-step optimization. Second, we introduce Preprocessing Uncertainty (PU), a per-trial diagnostic that captures a dimension of instability complementary to model-based confidence. Third, we study Normalized Adaptive PGI (NA-PGI), a graph-structured regularizer that exploits the compositional structure of preprocessing interventions as one mitigation strategy with clear scope conditions.

As large language models (LLMs) are increasingly integrated into high-stakes decision-making, the ability to reliably quantify uncertainty has become a critical requirement for safety and trust. However, current uncertainty quantification methods primarily operate at the output level, often failing to distinguish whether uncertainty arises from the model's lack of knowledge or from ambiguity in the user's input. While input-centric uncertainty quantification has recently emerged as a promising direction, it remains relatively underexplored and typically relies on coarse, input-level information. Consequently, users are provided with scalar uncertainty scores that offer little actionable guidance on which parts of the input should be clarified to improve reliability. To address this limitation, we propose Shapley-based input uncertainty Quantification (ShaQ), a framework for span-level attribution of input-induced uncertainty. Our approach models ambiguous spans in the input as players in a cooperative game and quantifies their contributions using Shapley values, defined via the weighted average of marginal reductions in conditional entropy obtained by clarifying each span coalition. Unlike existing input-level approaches, our formulation captures complex interactions among spans and provides a principled decomposition in which individual attributions sum exactly to the total input-induced uncertainty. We evaluate ShaQ on the AmbigQA and AmbiEnt benchmarks, where it achieves state-of-the-art performance in ambiguity detection. We further demonstrate its utility on MediTOD, showing that ShaQ can localize under-specified clinical utterances and facilitate human-AI collaboration in high-stakes settings. Overall, ShaQ improves uncertainty estimation and provides actionable insights for targeted input clarification.

Despite improvements in performances on different natural language generation tasks, deep neural models are prone to hallucinating facts that are incorrect or nonexistent. Different hypotheses are proposed and examined separately for different tasks, but no systematic explanations are available across these tasks. In this study, we draw connections between hallucinations and predictive uncertainty in conditional language generation. We investigate their relationship in both image captioning and data-to-text generation and propose a simple extension to beam search to reduce hallucination. Our analysis shows that higher predictive uncertainty corresponds to a higher chance of hallucination. Epistemic uncertainty is more indicative of hallucination than aleatoric or total uncertainties. It helps to achieve better results of trading performance in standard metric for less hallucination with the proposed beam search variant.

When deploying machine learning models in high-stakes real-world environments such as health care, it is crucial to accurately assess the uncertainty concerning a model's prediction on abnormal inputs. However, there is a scarcity of literature analyzing this problem on medical data, especially on mixed-type tabular data such as Electronic Health Records. We close this gap by presenting a series of tests including a large variety of contemporary uncertainty estimation techniques, in order to determine whether they are able to identify out-of-distribution (OOD) patients. In contrast to previous work, we design tests on realistic and clinically relevant OOD groups, and run experiments on real-world medical data. We find that almost all techniques fail to achieve convincing results, partly disagreeing with earlier findings.