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op_fed
19800916_135_1
meeting_transcript
fomc_meeting_transcript
1980-09-16
FOMC meeting transcript 19800916 — MR. KICHLINE.
Well, I am referring to the nonfarm business sector.
unlabeled
mit
keith_etal_2025_op_fed
2026-05-30T00:30:07.057978+00:00
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peer_reviewed
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train
63e7ba8801850d5c
op_fed
19800916_353_7
meeting_transcript
fomc_meeting_transcript
1980-09-16
FOMC meeting transcript 19800916 — VICE CHAIRMAN SOLOMON.
When I talk to people in the markets, they are not questioning our credibility or the steadiness of our policy at the moment.
unlabeled
mit
keith_etal_2025_op_fed
2026-05-30T00:30:07.070647+00:00
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peer_reviewed
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train
6a0ddd8c671c7a78
op_fed
19800916_302_3
meeting_transcript
fomc_meeting_transcript
1980-09-16
FOMC meeting transcript 19800916 — MR. AXILROD.
So in the Bluebook where we have the 7-1/4 percent [growth rate], that is the target necessary to hit a particular level over the year.
unlabeled
mit
keith_etal_2025_op_fed
2026-05-30T00:30:07.062300+00:00
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ccfefa74b074255a
op_fed
19800916_505_1
meeting_transcript
fomc_meeting_transcript
1980-09-16
FOMC meeting transcript 19800916 — CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.
We can always consult, so let's not make that part of the proposal.
unlabeled
mit
keith_etal_2025_op_fed
2026-05-30T00:30:07.066428+00:00
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24dc8b97ec165199
op_fed
19801021_416_1
meeting_transcript
fomc_meeting_transcript
1980-10-21
FOMC meeting transcript 19801021 — MR. PARTEE.
Some people think we already have.
unlabeled
mit
keith_etal_2025_op_fed
2026-05-30T00:30:07.066448+00:00
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peer_reviewed
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train
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op_fed
19801021_442_1
meeting_transcript
fomc_meeting_transcript
1980-10-21
FOMC meeting transcript 19801021 — CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.
It won't affect the borrowings.
unlabeled
mit
keith_etal_2025_op_fed
2026-05-30T00:30:07.054617+00:00
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op_fed
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meeting_transcript
fomc_meeting_transcript
1980-10-21
FOMC meeting transcript 19801021 — CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.
I say that because the Treasury is so far in debt that there is quite a bit of absorptive capacity in the United States government for the next month or two anyway.
unlabeled
mit
keith_etal_2025_op_fed
2026-05-30T00:30:07.079544+00:00
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op_fed
19801021_48_11
meeting_transcript
fomc_meeting_transcript
1980-10-21
FOMC meeting transcript 19801021 — CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.
And they are prepared to do so if we agree in principle.
unlabeled
mit
keith_etal_2025_op_fed
2026-05-30T00:30:07.062323+00:00
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train
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op_fed
19801021_331_1
meeting_transcript
fomc_meeting_transcript
1980-10-21
FOMC meeting transcript 19801021 — CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.
It's just the opposite of what we did last time.
unlabeled
mit
keith_etal_2025_op_fed
2026-05-30T00:30:07.058022+00:00
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peer_reviewed
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op_fed
19801021_429_1
meeting_transcript
fomc_meeting_transcript
1980-10-21
FOMC meeting transcript 19801021 — CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.
Well, let's [see whether we have a consensus].
unlabeled
mit
keith_etal_2025_op_fed
2026-05-30T00:30:07.066467+00:00
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peer_reviewed
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op_fed
19801021_27_1
meeting_transcript
fomc_meeting_transcript
1980-10-21
FOMC meeting transcript 19801021 — MR. SCHULTZ.
But we're coming up pretty close to the limit right now.
unlabeled
mit
keith_etal_2025_op_fed
2026-05-30T00:30:07.058001+00:00
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peer_reviewed
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0188cce762f314b4
op_fed
19801219_195_5
meeting_transcript
fomc_meeting_transcript
1980-12-19
FOMC meeting transcript 19801219 — MR. WALLICH.
And we would get some of the protection that you have in mind, Chuck.
unlabeled
mit
keith_etal_2025_op_fed
2026-05-30T00:30:07.058041+00:00
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peer_reviewed
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label_map_v1.0
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2acc63b5f117bcb5
op_fed
19801219_476_3
meeting_transcript
fomc_meeting_transcript
1980-12-19
FOMC meeting transcript 19801219 — CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.
I don't know which you have in mind.
unlabeled
mit
keith_etal_2025_op_fed
2026-05-30T00:30:07.070676+00:00
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peer_reviewed
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348830a8c495cc18
op_fed
19801219_470_20
meeting_transcript
fomc_meeting_transcript
1980-12-19
FOMC meeting transcript 19801219 — CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.
I would like a phrase in there indicating "over a period of time" or something like that so it doesn't sound as if these ranges are applied rigidly on a day-to-day basis.
unlabeled
mit
keith_etal_2025_op_fed
2026-05-30T00:30:07.079585+00:00
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peer_reviewed
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label_map_v1.0
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train
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op_fed
19801219_723_1
meeting_transcript
fomc_meeting_transcript
1980-12-19
FOMC meeting transcript 19801219 — SPEAKER(?).
It was pretty good.
unlabeled
mit
keith_etal_2025_op_fed
2026-05-30T00:30:07.075356+00:00
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peer_reviewed
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train
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op_fed
19801219_289_2
meeting_transcript
fomc_meeting_transcript
1980-12-19
FOMC meeting transcript 19801219 — CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.
We are very close to the point, which is relevant even to our short-term decision, where these numbers are going to go all over the lot presumably.
unlabeled
mit
keith_etal_2025_op_fed
2026-05-30T00:30:07.075304+00:00
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peer_reviewed
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train
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op_fed
19801219_124_1
meeting_transcript
fomc_meeting_transcript
1980-12-19
FOMC meeting transcript 19801219 — MR. PARDEE.
But it is important to know that the limit on how much we can buy in Deutschemarks, which is $1.5 billion, has been set by the Committee.
unlabeled
mit
keith_etal_2025_op_fed
2026-05-30T00:30:07.062346+00:00
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peer_reviewed
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train
fa6577f1a0eda4bc
op_fed
19801219_565_2
meeting_transcript
fomc_meeting_transcript
1980-12-19
FOMC meeting transcript 19801219 — MR. GRAMLEY.
My whole point is--
unlabeled
mit
keith_etal_2025_op_fed
2026-05-30T00:30:07.075327+00:00
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peer_reviewed
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train
25068232ac989edf
op_fed
19810203_902_12
meeting_transcript
fomc_meeting_transcript
1981-02-03
FOMC meeting transcript 19810203 — MR. MAYO.
I would say that is fairly optimistic on spending cuts.
unlabeled
mit
keith_etal_2025_op_fed
2026-05-30T00:30:07.062413+00:00
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peer_reviewed
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train
40308ad8e617acee
op_fed
19810203_554_1
meeting_transcript
fomc_meeting_transcript
1981-02-03
FOMC meeting transcript 19810203 — MR. GRAMLEY.
On the basis of cost to banks alone.
unlabeled
mit
keith_etal_2025_op_fed
2026-05-30T00:30:07.053502+00:00
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peer_reviewed
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train
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op_fed
19810203_354_11
meeting_transcript
fomc_meeting_transcript
1981-02-03
FOMC meeting transcript 19810203 — CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.
Under the old operating technique we could have maintained a penalty rate and we never did during these periods; and the discrepancy got extremely wide every time we had a tight money period.
unlabeled
mit
keith_etal_2025_op_fed
2026-05-30T00:30:07.079654+00:00
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peer_reviewed
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train
7dca8791c645471e
op_fed
19810203_1064_9
meeting_transcript
fomc_meeting_transcript
1981-02-03
FOMC meeting transcript 19810203 — MR. WALLICH.
But Chuck Partee yesterday made the point that getting back on track really means running below track for a while if we have been above track.
unlabeled
mit
keith_etal_2025_op_fed
2026-05-30T00:30:07.066489+00:00
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op_fed
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meeting_transcript
fomc_meeting_transcript
1981-02-03
FOMC meeting transcript 19810203 — VICE CHAIRMAN SOLOMON.
I don't know how important all of this is.
neutral
human
mit
keith_etal_2025_op_fed
2026-05-30T00:30:07.070696+00:00
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peer_reviewed
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neutral
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train
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op_fed
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meeting_transcript
fomc_meeting_transcript
1981-02-03
FOMC meeting transcript 19810203 — MR. AXILROD.
But we have to look elsewhere.
neutral
human
mit
keith_etal_2025_op_fed
2026-05-30T00:30:07.079682+00:00
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peer_reviewed
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neutral
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train
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op_fed
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meeting_transcript
fomc_meeting_transcript
1981-02-03
FOMC meeting transcript 19810203 — MR. BLACK.
But we wouldn't have the problem of the banks being able to borrow and [raise] the reserve targets.
unlabeled
mit
keith_etal_2025_op_fed
2026-05-30T00:30:07.062374+00:00
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train
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op_fed
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meeting_transcript
fomc_meeting_transcript
1981-02-03
FOMC meeting transcript 19810203 — CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.
Each month during that autumn period all the projections said it was going to level off this month.
unlabeled
mit
keith_etal_2025_op_fed
2026-05-30T00:30:07.055064+00:00
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train
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op_fed
19810203_204_12
meeting_transcript
fomc_meeting_transcript
1981-02-03
FOMC meeting transcript 19810203 — MR. GRAMLEY.
And, although we can't measure it, it does have some adverse effects on investment proceedings.
unlabeled
mit
keith_etal_2025_op_fed
2026-05-30T00:30:07.079629+00:00
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peer_reviewed
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null
label_map_v1.0
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train
19a27ecea0b93887
op_fed
19810331_259_3
meeting_transcript
fomc_meeting_transcript
1981-03-31
FOMC meeting transcript 19810331 — CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.
Maybe we should just slip in this lending issue, too, while you have the table, Mr. Sternlight.
unlabeled
mit
keith_etal_2025_op_fed
2026-05-30T00:30:07.066552+00:00
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peer_reviewed
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null
label_map_v1.0
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train
216d8797f0755bb3
op_fed
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meeting_transcript
fomc_meeting_transcript
1981-03-31
FOMC meeting transcript 19810331 — CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.
It is extremely difficult to identify any peculiar results from intervention per se economically.
unlabeled
mit
keith_etal_2025_op_fed
2026-05-30T00:30:07.066525+00:00
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peer_reviewed
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null
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train
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op_fed
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meeting_transcript
fomc_meeting_transcript
1981-03-31
FOMC meeting transcript 19810331 — CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.
I'm a little surprised that you came out for "C." It's against that background that I ask this.
neutral
human
mit
keith_etal_2025_op_fed
2026-05-30T00:30:07.058091+00:00
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peer_reviewed
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neutral
label_map_v1.0
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train
46e74f4a03c4d692
op_fed
19810331_211_2
meeting_transcript
fomc_meeting_transcript
1981-03-31
FOMC meeting transcript 19810331 — VICE CHAIRMAN SOLOMON.
and then there might or might not be a need for another consultation.
unlabeled
mit
keith_etal_2025_op_fed
2026-05-30T00:30:07.075381+00:00
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peer_reviewed
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null
label_map_v1.0
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train
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op_fed
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meeting_transcript
fomc_meeting_transcript
1981-03-31
FOMC meeting transcript 19810331 — CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.
I will tell you what my personal attitude toward setting those ranges is.
unlabeled
mit
keith_etal_2025_op_fed
2026-05-30T00:30:07.062441+00:00
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peer_reviewed
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label_map_v1.0
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train
b80db906c7eff2d6
op_fed
19810331_293_3
meeting_transcript
fomc_meeting_transcript
1981-03-31
FOMC meeting transcript 19810331 — MR. AXILROD.
For sure we would do it around midyear.
unlabeled
mit
keith_etal_2025_op_fed
2026-05-30T00:30:07.079702+00:00
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peer_reviewed
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null
label_map_v1.0
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train
d9fc67a07361f32b
op_fed
19810331_350_3
meeting_transcript
fomc_meeting_transcript
1981-03-31
FOMC meeting transcript 19810331 — MR. CORRIGAN.
When I put it together, in terms of policy, I would not be allergic to giving a little more weight to M2 in line with one of the points that Steve made.
unlabeled
mit
keith_etal_2025_op_fed
2026-05-30T00:30:07.070747+00:00
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peer_reviewed
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null
label_map_v1.0
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train
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op_fed
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meeting_transcript
fomc_meeting_transcript
1981-03-31
FOMC meeting transcript 19810331 — MR. PARTEE.
I think we have to be very clear in terms of what the understandings are.
unlabeled
mit
keith_etal_2025_op_fed
2026-05-30T00:30:07.058063+00:00
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peer_reviewed
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null
label_map_v1.0
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train
1e9dc7a226ddbc75
op_fed
19810518_229_8
meeting_transcript
fomc_meeting_transcript
1981-05-18
FOMC meeting transcript 19810518 — VICE CHAIRMAN SOLOMON.
I'm influenced not only by the strength of the economy--and there is a widespread feeling around the country, and certainly in the market, that with the exception of the troubled sectors the economy is very strong--but I'm also influenced by the fact that if the President's program goes through, even with a compromise ...
hawkish
human
mit
keith_etal_2025_op_fed
2026-05-30T00:30:07.058133+00:00
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peer_reviewed
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hawkish
label_map_v1.0
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train
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op_fed
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meeting_transcript
fomc_meeting_transcript
1981-05-18
FOMC meeting transcript 19810518 — SPEAKER(?).
No, I was going to vote--
unlabeled
mit
keith_etal_2025_op_fed
2026-05-30T00:30:07.058202+00:00
501f5c667f4c7996923e072050d4f4ed32e972886c560fe174cffe8449d4e0bf
peer_reviewed
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null
label_map_v1.0
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train
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op_fed
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meeting_transcript
fomc_meeting_transcript
1981-05-18
FOMC meeting transcript 19810518 — MR. CORRIGAN.
As I suggested earlier, there are some risks here, and I think we have to be prepared to take some risks.
hawkish
human
mit
keith_etal_2025_op_fed
2026-05-30T00:30:07.058181+00:00
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peer_reviewed
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label_map_v1.0
hawkish_dovish_neutral
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train
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op_fed
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meeting_transcript
fomc_meeting_transcript
1981-05-18
FOMC meeting transcript 19810518 — MR. PARTEE.
And that's always hard, indeed impossible, to predict or to time.
unlabeled
mit
keith_etal_2025_op_fed
2026-05-30T00:30:07.062484+00:00
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peer_reviewed
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null
label_map_v1.0
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train
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op_fed
19810518_306_9
meeting_transcript
fomc_meeting_transcript
1981-05-18
FOMC meeting transcript 19810518 — MR. WINN.
That would not be very helpful in terms of our longer-run objectives.
hawkish
human
mit
keith_etal_2025_op_fed
2026-05-30T00:30:07.062516+00:00
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peer_reviewed
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label_map_v1.0
hawkish_dovish_neutral
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train
ba0a9ff8616da595
op_fed
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meeting_transcript
fomc_meeting_transcript
1981-05-18
FOMC meeting transcript 19810518 — MR. WINN.
We may have more for sale here suddenly than some people have expected.
unlabeled
mit
keith_etal_2025_op_fed
2026-05-30T00:30:07.066600+00:00
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peer_reviewed
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null
label_map_v1.0
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train
bc32193b9f4b87f1
op_fed
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meeting_transcript
fomc_meeting_transcript
1981-05-18
FOMC meeting transcript 19810518 — MR. WINN.
The third point I'll make is that on John's point about office building and other kinds of activities we may have a bit of a booby-trap in this area in that most of those have been financed on construction loans without take-outs in some instances.
unlabeled
mit
keith_etal_2025_op_fed
2026-05-30T00:30:07.066577+00:00
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peer_reviewed
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null
label_map_v1.0
hawkish_dovish_neutral
0
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train
066c62f860a12e82
op_fed
19810707_214_2
meeting_transcript
fomc_meeting_transcript
1981-07-07
FOMC meeting transcript 19810707 — MR. PARTEE.
What Jim says is driving them is [the assumption of] a relatively small money supply expansion and [the staff forecast] has to force that on an economy with quite a lot of nominal GNP.
unlabeled
mit
keith_etal_2025_op_fed
2026-05-30T00:30:07.075405+00:00
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peer_reviewed
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null
label_map_v1.0
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train
3606d7d3748fb2f9
op_fed
19810707_886_6
meeting_transcript
fomc_meeting_transcript
1981-07-07
FOMC meeting transcript 19810707 — MR. ROOS.
So, I think they are two different things.
unlabeled
mit
keith_etal_2025_op_fed
2026-05-30T00:30:07.062553+00:00
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op_fed
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meeting_transcript
fomc_meeting_transcript
1981-07-07
FOMC meeting transcript 19810707 — CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.
Yes, we will have a consultation before the testimony to confirm all of this.
unlabeled
mit
keith_etal_2025_op_fed
2026-05-30T00:30:07.062574+00:00
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train
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op_fed
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meeting_transcript
fomc_meeting_transcript
1981-07-07
FOMC meeting transcript 19810707 — CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.
Inevitably we have to [unintelligible].
unlabeled
mit
keith_etal_2025_op_fed
2026-05-30T00:30:07.070793+00:00
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train
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op_fed
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meeting_transcript
fomc_meeting_transcript
1981-07-07
FOMC meeting transcript 19810707 — CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.
All I want is an instinct at this point.
unlabeled
mit
keith_etal_2025_op_fed
2026-05-30T00:30:07.079723+00:00
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peer_reviewed
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train
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op_fed
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meeting_transcript
fomc_meeting_transcript
1981-08-18
FOMC meeting transcript 19810818 — MR. PARTEE.
No, I haven't changed my mind.
unlabeled
mit
keith_etal_2025_op_fed
2026-05-30T00:30:07.075426+00:00
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null
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train
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op_fed
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meeting_transcript
fomc_meeting_transcript
1981-10-06
FOMC meeting transcript 19811006 — CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.
[They think] the course is certainly the right one.
unlabeled
mit
keith_etal_2025_op_fed
2026-05-30T00:30:07.075457+00:00
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train
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op_fed
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meeting_transcript
fomc_meeting_transcript
1981-10-06
FOMC meeting transcript 19811006 — VICE CHAIRMAN SOLOMON.
So, if we went ahead with came in again, would this change your attitude about giving one to
unlabeled
mit
keith_etal_2025_op_fed
2026-05-30T00:30:07.062599+00:00
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train
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op_fed
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meeting_transcript
fomc_meeting_transcript
1981-10-06
FOMC meeting transcript 19811006 — CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.
I'm not leaning either way.
unlabeled
mit
keith_etal_2025_op_fed
2026-05-30T00:30:07.062621+00:00
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361e967447f17a7d
op_fed
19811006_368_12
meeting_transcript
fomc_meeting_transcript
1981-10-06
FOMC meeting transcript 19811006 — CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.
I don't know whether that's possible or not.
unlabeled
mit
keith_etal_2025_op_fed
2026-05-30T00:30:07.079756+00:00
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null
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train
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op_fed
19811006_159_6
meeting_transcript
fomc_meeting_transcript
1981-10-06
FOMC meeting transcript 19811006 — MR. SCHULTZ.
That was exactly the [sentiment]: I'm dying, what are you doing to me?
unlabeled
mit
keith_etal_2025_op_fed
2026-05-30T00:30:07.075477+00:00
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peer_reviewed
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null
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train
bd34072ebe330a54
op_fed
19811006_280_3
meeting_transcript
fomc_meeting_transcript
1981-10-06
FOMC meeting transcript 19811006 — MR. FORD.
Even if we put it at a tiny fraction of the money market funds, we would say that M-1B has been somewhat stronger than it appears in the adjusted figures.
unlabeled
mit
keith_etal_2025_op_fed
2026-05-30T00:30:07.070853+00:00
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peer_reviewed
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null
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train
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op_fed
19811006_231_2
meeting_transcript
fomc_meeting_transcript
1981-10-06
FOMC meeting transcript 19811006 — MR. AXILROD.
I said the nontransactions component will rise relative to M-1B in this present environment.
unlabeled
mit
keith_etal_2025_op_fed
2026-05-30T00:30:07.070829+00:00
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null
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train
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op_fed
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meeting_transcript
fomc_meeting_transcript
1981-10-06
FOMC meeting transcript 19811006 — CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.
If it's $4 or $5 billion, we wouldn't be.
unlabeled
mit
keith_etal_2025_op_fed
2026-05-30T00:30:07.058224+00:00
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train
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op_fed
19811117_554_1
meeting_transcript
fomc_meeting_transcript
1981-11-17
FOMC meeting transcript 19811117 — MS. TEETERS.
I still don't like the phrase about phasing into next year.
unlabeled
mit
keith_etal_2025_op_fed
2026-05-30T00:30:07.070879+00:00
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null
label_map_v1.0
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train
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op_fed
19811117_56_1
meeting_transcript
fomc_meeting_transcript
1981-11-17
FOMC meeting transcript 19811117 — MR. BLACK.
That would be interesting to watch over time.
unlabeled
mit
keith_etal_2025_op_fed
2026-05-30T00:30:07.058245+00:00
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peer_reviewed
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null
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train
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op_fed
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meeting_transcript
fomc_meeting_transcript
1981-11-17
FOMC meeting transcript 19811117 — VICE CHAIRMAN SOLOMON.
And I think that is much more meaningful to an economic recovery.
unlabeled
mit
keith_etal_2025_op_fed
2026-05-30T00:30:07.055636+00:00
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peer_reviewed
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train
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op_fed
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meeting_transcript
fomc_meeting_transcript
1981-11-17
FOMC meeting transcript 19811117 — MR. KEEHN.
I admittedly come from an area where there is a very heavy concentration of industries that have been most affected.
unlabeled
mit
keith_etal_2025_op_fed
2026-05-30T00:30:07.062641+00:00
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peer_reviewed
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null
label_map_v1.0
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train
f8873bd4c2dc27d7
op_fed
19811117_641_1
meeting_transcript
fomc_meeting_transcript
1981-11-17
FOMC meeting transcript 19811117 — CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.
We keep promising these short-term results that we don't get.
unlabeled
mit
keith_etal_2025_op_fed
2026-05-30T00:30:07.075498+00:00
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peer_reviewed
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label_map_v1.0
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train
10cb4aa074eed6f1
op_fed
19811222_106_1
meeting_transcript
fomc_meeting_transcript
1981-12-22
FOMC meeting transcript 19811222 — MR. KEEHN.
On the specific question--I'll comment [on my general views] later--I think there has been within the last 30 to 45 days a decided shift on the part of labor out our way.
unlabeled
mit
keith_etal_2025_op_fed
2026-05-30T00:30:07.058279+00:00
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peer_reviewed
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null
label_map_v1.0
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train
5b847be64d36b5fb
op_fed
19811222_151_5
meeting_transcript
fomc_meeting_transcript
1981-12-22
FOMC meeting transcript 19811222 — MR. ROOS.
So, what we do will have a direct bearing, at least as we look at it, rather than just psychological [effects on] decisions that businessmen might be making.
unlabeled
mit
keith_etal_2025_op_fed
2026-05-30T00:30:07.070908+00:00
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peer_reviewed
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null
label_map_v1.0
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train
697491a70fa8f40d
op_fed
19811222_230_4
meeting_transcript
fomc_meeting_transcript
1981-12-22
FOMC meeting transcript 19811222 — CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.
But the discrepancies in the numbers were even larger than we had.
unlabeled
mit
keith_etal_2025_op_fed
2026-05-30T00:30:07.075517+00:00
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peer_reviewed
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null
label_map_v1.0
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train
6d0777c21a7fa364
op_fed
19811222_415_2
meeting_transcript
fomc_meeting_transcript
1981-12-22
FOMC meeting transcript 19811222 — CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.
There are all kinds of questions that can be raised about the methodology.
unlabeled
mit
keith_etal_2025_op_fed
2026-05-30T00:30:07.066627+00:00
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peer_reviewed
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null
label_map_v1.0
hawkish_dovish_neutral
0
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train
7afed5bbbd809d49
op_fed
19811222_327_4
meeting_transcript
fomc_meeting_transcript
1981-12-22
FOMC meeting transcript 19811222 — MR. CORRIGAN.
At least as far out as one can reasonably see, cash-type investments are probably going to continue to look pretty good.
dovish
human
mit
keith_etal_2025_op_fed
2026-05-30T00:30:07.070944+00:00
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peer_reviewed
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train
c9c723f0ae4b5e61
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19811222_189_9
meeting_transcript
fomc_meeting_transcript
1981-12-22
FOMC meeting transcript 19811222 — MR. TRUMAN.
I might comment that Japan in particular seems to be a serious problem.
unlabeled
mit
keith_etal_2025_op_fed
2026-05-30T00:30:07.052740+00:00
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peer_reviewed
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19811222_433_5
meeting_transcript
fomc_meeting_transcript
1981-12-22
FOMC meeting transcript 19811222 — MR. BALLES.
So, despite all of our frustrations about what money is, how it behaves, and what should be in M1 and M2, it is still the only game in town as far as I am concerned.
unlabeled
mit
keith_etal_2025_op_fed
2026-05-30T00:30:07.058311+00:00
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19811222_502_1
meeting_transcript
fomc_meeting_transcript
1981-12-22
FOMC meeting transcript 19811222 — MR. STERNLIGHT.
The discount rate becomes a kind of anchor around which the funds rate clusters once there's enough borrowing to make that discount rate meaningful.
unlabeled
mit
keith_etal_2025_op_fed
2026-05-30T00:30:07.053767+00:00
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19820202_521_9
meeting_transcript
fomc_meeting_transcript
1982-02-02
FOMC meeting transcript 19820202 — CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.
If it began declining further, we might well [respond].
dovish
human
mit
keith_etal_2025_op_fed
2026-05-30T00:30:07.075552+00:00
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19820202_1019_1
meeting_transcript
fomc_meeting_transcript
1982-02-02
FOMC meeting transcript 19820202 — MR. BOEHNE.
I second Governor Gramley's comment.
dovish
human
mit
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2026-05-30T00:30:07.066672+00:00
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19820202_203_2
meeting_transcript
fomc_meeting_transcript
1982-02-02
FOMC meeting transcript 19820202 — MR. AXILROD.
That is one of the reasons we thought [M1] would grow in November and December, way back when.
unlabeled
mit
keith_etal_2025_op_fed
2026-05-30T00:30:07.062675+00:00
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peer_reviewed
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meeting_transcript
fomc_meeting_transcript
1982-02-02
FOMC meeting transcript 19820202 — MR. WALLICH.
But we have never said anything other than that we would fight disorder.
unlabeled
mit
keith_etal_2025_op_fed
2026-05-30T00:30:07.079778+00:00
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op_fed
19820202_183_4
meeting_transcript
fomc_meeting_transcript
1982-02-02
FOMC meeting transcript 19820202 — MR. AXILROD.
That is the question, mostly, that we are trying to answer.
unlabeled
mit
keith_etal_2025_op_fed
2026-05-30T00:30:07.070966+00:00
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peer_reviewed
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meeting_transcript
fomc_meeting_transcript
1982-02-02
FOMC meeting transcript 19820202 — CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.
If we came out of the clear blue sky and said we are going to change them, that is one thing.
unlabeled
mit
keith_etal_2025_op_fed
2026-05-30T00:30:07.066650+00:00
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meeting_transcript
fomc_meeting_transcript
1982-03-30
FOMC meeting transcript 19820330 — MR. AXILROD.
I would not really want to give any technical advice on that particular point.
unlabeled
mit
keith_etal_2025_op_fed
2026-05-30T00:30:07.058345+00:00
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19820330_266_5
meeting_transcript
fomc_meeting_transcript
1982-03-30
FOMC meeting transcript 19820330 — MR. AXILROD.
But the quarterly model, which is of course often wrong, would suggest growth at these interest rates also.
unlabeled
mit
keith_etal_2025_op_fed
2026-05-30T00:30:07.075596+00:00
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peer_reviewed
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19820330_628_2
meeting_transcript
fomc_meeting_transcript
1982-03-30
FOMC meeting transcript 19820330 — CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.
I don't have to repeat it again.
unlabeled
mit
keith_etal_2025_op_fed
2026-05-30T00:30:07.062696+00:00
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peer_reviewed
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op_fed
19820330_211_2
meeting_transcript
fomc_meeting_transcript
1982-03-30
FOMC meeting transcript 19820330 — MR. KEEHN.
Whether they can or not I don't know, because the attitude between management and the UAW, as you know, is very poor there.
unlabeled
mit
keith_etal_2025_op_fed
2026-05-30T00:30:07.075575+00:00
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19820330_165_7
meeting_transcript
fomc_meeting_transcript
1982-03-30
FOMC meeting transcript 19820330 — MR. STERNLIGHT.
There could be that kind of cycling, but that might be a minor variation around the more underlying trend we're trying to achieve.
unlabeled
mit
keith_etal_2025_op_fed
2026-05-30T00:30:07.070991+00:00
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19820330_295_10
meeting_transcript
fomc_meeting_transcript
1982-03-30
FOMC meeting transcript 19820330 — MR. BALLES.
I'd like to hear how the staff would answer that question.
unlabeled
mit
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2026-05-30T00:30:07.075632+00:00
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train
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op_fed
19820330_283_14
meeting_transcript
fomc_meeting_transcript
1982-03-30
FOMC meeting transcript 19820330 — MR. PARTEE.
But we should not say that there's a tremendous flow of credit in these markets.
unlabeled
mit
keith_etal_2025_op_fed
2026-05-30T00:30:07.066710+00:00
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peer_reviewed
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op_fed
19820518_275_17
meeting_transcript
fomc_meeting_transcript
1982-05-18
FOMC meeting transcript 19820518 — MR. PARTEE.
So, I would take "B" for this time but reserve
dovish
human
mit
keith_etal_2025_op_fed
2026-05-30T00:30:07.052916+00:00
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peer_reviewed
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train
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op_fed
19820518_245_3
meeting_transcript
fomc_meeting_transcript
1982-05-18
FOMC meeting transcript 19820518 — MR. BLACK.
It seems to me that there are two main reasons why rates are staying up.
dovish
human
mit
keith_etal_2025_op_fed
2026-05-30T00:30:07.071033+00:00
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peer_reviewed
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train
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op_fed
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meeting_transcript
fomc_meeting_transcript
1982-05-18
FOMC meeting transcript 19820518 — MR. BOEHNE.
One of the things that seems to be at work here is that they see a longer-term deterioration of their competitive position going out into '83, '84, '85, and '86.
unlabeled
mit
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2026-05-30T00:30:07.075653+00:00
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peer_reviewed
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train
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meeting_transcript
fomc_meeting_transcript
1982-05-18
FOMC meeting transcript 19820518 — MR. ROOS.
Even if money growth from April to June is zero, second-quarter growth of M1 will be somewhere between 3 and 4 percent.
unlabeled
mit
keith_etal_2025_op_fed
2026-05-30T00:30:07.062717+00:00
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peer_reviewed
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train
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meeting_transcript
fomc_meeting_transcript
1982-07-01
FOMC meeting transcript 19820701 — VICE CHAIRMAN SOLOMON.
Stepping back, I think it's worth mentioning that our forecast is significantly different from Jim's.
unlabeled
mit
keith_etal_2025_op_fed
2026-05-30T00:30:07.062753+00:00
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peer_reviewed
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train
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op_fed
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meeting_transcript
fomc_meeting_transcript
1982-07-01
FOMC meeting transcript 19820701 — CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.
Then we'd come to our federal funds limitation, anyway, at some point.
unlabeled
mit
keith_etal_2025_op_fed
2026-05-30T00:30:07.056461+00:00
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peer_reviewed
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meeting_transcript
fomc_meeting_transcript
1982-07-01
FOMC meeting transcript 19820701 — CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.
I don't know what your interpretation of well above is.
unlabeled
mit
keith_etal_2025_op_fed
2026-05-30T00:30:07.066731+00:00
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peer_reviewed
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null
label_map_v1.0
hawkish_dovish_neutral
0
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train
6cd4a10ad96b4685
op_fed
19820701_694_1
meeting_transcript
fomc_meeting_transcript
1982-07-01
FOMC meeting transcript 19820701 — MR. GRAMLEY.
If we were so fortunate as to see interest rates decline also, there would be the usual lag in the downward adjustment of yields on money market mutual funds and hence a tendency for [funds to move] into those from market instruments, which would help keep the M2 numbers up.
dovish
human
mit
keith_etal_2025_op_fed
2026-05-30T00:30:07.075709+00:00
43f38e56b3f21d6a25dae598c9c5fabe03b10d2de07392abbf54e7f3974d51ec
peer_reviewed
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dovish
label_map_v1.0
hawkish_dovish_neutral
1
{ "stance": "dovish", "factor": null, "certainty": null, "time": null, "topic": null }
train
d7ccdc9aa4d7632e
op_fed
19820701_222_2
meeting_transcript
fomc_meeting_transcript
1982-07-01
FOMC meeting transcript 19820701 — CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.
Now, whether we actually will extend any money before the weekend is something of an open question.
unlabeled
mit
keith_etal_2025_op_fed
2026-05-30T00:30:07.062777+00:00
a45c566a1a8ac31efd7c5acb02d383c93ba160e3b5d19d73e0361bfb6b10926b
peer_reviewed
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null
label_map_v1.0
hawkish_dovish_neutral
0
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train
ff4290d1a22603b0
op_fed
19820701_340_1
meeting_transcript
fomc_meeting_transcript
1982-07-01
FOMC meeting transcript 19820701 — VICE CHAIRMAN SOLOMON.
If we started with $300 million borrowing, that would be a very sudden move, not a gradual one.
unlabeled
mit
keith_etal_2025_op_fed
2026-05-30T00:30:07.075677+00:00
e8c81a28758a05b9c28b833540ad45b60e179147d44eabb9a9e4614196d9ab9e
peer_reviewed
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null
label_map_v1.0
hawkish_dovish_neutral
0
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train
08dfce75d70d07ea
op_fed
19820824_193_4
meeting_transcript
fomc_meeting_transcript
1982-08-24
FOMC meeting transcript 19820824 — CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.
I'm just making a technical point.
unlabeled
mit
keith_etal_2025_op_fed
2026-05-30T00:30:07.058364+00:00
3b713435a191295abeb7072dd2180d5d0ca8d4996d1f6c2c74c9b1e92639f8ab
peer_reviewed
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null
label_map_v1.0
hawkish_dovish_neutral
0
{ "stance": null, "factor": null, "certainty": null, "time": null, "topic": null }
train
16ee618065dffb21
op_fed
19821005_212_4
meeting_transcript
fomc_meeting_transcript
1982-10-05
FOMC meeting transcript 19821005 — CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.
But that--
unlabeled
mit
keith_etal_2025_op_fed
2026-05-30T00:30:07.055012+00:00
432d264c41c062544b790eabd9e290a3e89a76263d049fc1b1402f4c03b138f3
peer_reviewed
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null
label_map_v1.0
hawkish_dovish_neutral
0
{ "stance": null, "factor": null, "certainty": null, "time": null, "topic": null }
train
192b98e9f6f90aa3
op_fed
19821005_179_4
meeting_transcript
fomc_meeting_transcript
1982-10-05
FOMC meeting transcript 19821005 — CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.
I don't know whether we can [unintelligible] that issue.
unlabeled
mit
keith_etal_2025_op_fed
2026-05-30T00:30:07.058386+00:00
51e5fb9c89e03c02cea448e78a4b1996e0330367f99f7953a9872aa0443d8826
peer_reviewed
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null
label_map_v1.0
hawkish_dovish_neutral
0
{ "stance": null, "factor": null, "certainty": null, "time": null, "topic": null }
train
48366e66ca12399c
op_fed
19821005_183_12
meeting_transcript
fomc_meeting_transcript
1982-10-05
FOMC meeting transcript 19821005 — CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.
And we get into this ridiculous situation where a country that is putting in $12-1/2 million has the same voice as the United States does.
unlabeled
mit
keith_etal_2025_op_fed
2026-05-30T00:30:07.079800+00:00
7fde61ef48a0f812500a80eab1cc168cb376eacc517ecc05a59bf9145b60b670
peer_reviewed
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null
label_map_v1.0
hawkish_dovish_neutral
0
{ "stance": null, "factor": null, "certainty": null, "time": null, "topic": null }
train
59b3e297f0620d1f
op_fed
19821005_605_6
meeting_transcript
fomc_meeting_transcript
1982-10-05
FOMC meeting transcript 19821005 — CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.
So, I think it works both ways.
unlabeled
mit
keith_etal_2025_op_fed
2026-05-30T00:30:07.062824+00:00
d754c9f97aade6d1fbba0f24f6055877fb7bb43b47c070a1d7a60ef0ef9067dc
peer_reviewed
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null
label_map_v1.0
hawkish_dovish_neutral
0
{ "stance": null, "factor": null, "certainty": null, "time": null, "topic": null }
train
5d3c3f32acfa0bc8
op_fed
19821005_158_2
meeting_transcript
fomc_meeting_transcript
1982-10-05
FOMC meeting transcript 19821005 — CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.
I'm just guessing.
unlabeled
mit
keith_etal_2025_op_fed
2026-05-30T00:30:07.066757+00:00
2ad7901bc0b1e434fb1c21f57388030fb27ceda25f0578d45f73fbda2c2d19c7
peer_reviewed
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null
label_map_v1.0
hawkish_dovish_neutral
0
{ "stance": null, "factor": null, "certainty": null, "time": null, "topic": null }
train
6b2e6f3f046024a4
op_fed
19821005_175_1
meeting_transcript
fomc_meeting_transcript
1982-10-05
FOMC meeting transcript 19821005 — CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.
Let me say in that connection--and I should have said it more clearly before--that I think this situation is manageable.
unlabeled
mit
keith_etal_2025_op_fed
2026-05-30T00:30:07.062801+00:00
56dd7cc7b4ce3721bb7722b7e48039d202d40517252041bb6a529ebf0e4afdf8
peer_reviewed
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null
label_map_v1.0
hawkish_dovish_neutral
0
{ "stance": null, "factor": null, "certainty": null, "time": null, "topic": null }
train
6e5941cd4df51d4e
op_fed
19821005_379_4
meeting_transcript
fomc_meeting_transcript
1982-10-05
FOMC meeting transcript 19821005 — MR. BLACK.
But maybe I am dead wrong on this.
hawkish
human
mit
keith_etal_2025_op_fed
2026-05-30T00:30:07.071058+00:00
87bc236792c5ffb1c4344a8e9eaba9cdf5eb048a6afb67d8c4cd89f66f11bb2f
peer_reviewed
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hawkish
label_map_v1.0
hawkish_dovish_neutral
1
{ "stance": "hawkish", "factor": null, "certainty": null, "time": null, "topic": null }
train